September 20, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 19 day, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly. Recently, the sales volume and paction price of national cotton store have been gradually decreasing, and textile enterprises' demand for raw materials has declined.

3. imported cotton: in September 19th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton increased, and most varieties increased little. Only varieties including cotton, Central Asia cotton and India cotton rose more than 0.75 cents.

In fact, the price advantage of foreign cotton is very obvious at present. The C/A cotton port's delivery price in the US is less than 16000 yuan / ton, which is at least 3000 yuan lower than that of the domestic grade cotton. However, only the textile factory with the quota remaining in hand can get this benefit. More textile mills will wait for the new cotton market or participate in the auction of cotton reserves.

4. cotton throwing storage: on the 18 day, it was approved by the national development and Reform Commission and other departments. In view of the large number of new flowers listed, the reserve will be closed on the 29 th of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

5. the purchase and storage of new cotton: in September 19th, China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 50000 tons of cotton in 2012, and the actual turnover is 12190 tons, with a turnover rate of 24.38%.

6.ICE cotton: in September 19th, ICE cotton continued to show good resilience. In the case of general weakness such as crude oil and other commodities, December contracts were involved in buying, and promoted cotton prices to rise again, continuing the high consolidation pattern.

Summary:

At the same time, the storage and storage of the reservoir is carried out at the same time, the price is different.

The price of cotton in Chinese society is reflected more truthfully.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve.

The national cotton situation analysis confirmed that the dumping will be closed on the 29 day of this month, and the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in the latter half of the year.

Operation continues the strategy of bargain and pays attention to the 20 day moving average.

However, the current cotton fundamentals do not support the continuous rise of Zheng cotton, and we must be cautious when we catch up with high prices.

[GF futures] capital speculation obvious Zheng cotton shock

[market performance]

The ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Wednesday, helped by the rebound in bargain buying and other agricultural commodity markets after a sharp fall yesterday. In December cotton CTZ2 rose 0.39%, at 76.41 cents per pound, and the intraday fluctuation range was 75.56-76.58 cents.

The 1301 contract of the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange closed at 19760 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Trading volume has shrunk to 168472 hands, and positions have been reduced by 10290 to 237088.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull.

The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19400 yuan, and the three grade cotton price is 18639 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton on the previous trading day.

[industry news]

The US Department of agriculture's latest supply and demand report shows that China's imports will decrease by 51% compared to the 2012-2013 market year beginning in August 1st.

Domestic consumption will also be reduced by 2.6% over the same period.

[operation suggestion]

Zheng cotton 18 days after the increase in volume increased, did not further rise, obvious signs of short funds, cotton city is currently mainly affected by the policy, and then up to 20200 front-line, but it is difficult.

Note how the weak spot market is in line with the high purchase price, good support time or limited, it is recommended that more than 19700 of the above should be reduced by weight.

[Wanda futures] external commodity rebound support U.S. cotton rose

Wednesday, grain

The ICE cotton continued to rise slightly in support of speculative buying. The December contract closed up 0.39 cents to 76.41 cents / pound, continuing the rebound pattern and challenging the 77.5 cent / pound pressure trend.

But at the moment, the new cotton in the northern hemisphere will be on the market. Chinese buyers will be restrained by quota restrictions. The global market is still in extremely loose supply. The end of the stock market is at a record high and the consumption downturn is not improving. Cotton prices do not have the basis for a substantial rise, and it is difficult to get rid of the 75-77.5 / pound market.

Wednesday ICE cotton Xiao Yang closed, the main contract in December stabilized on the short-term average line, continue 75-77.5 cents / pound of the horizontal area, the medium and short term average line system maintained a long rise in order, KD and MACD indicators have adhesion to form a long rising trend, MACD index green column shortens soon to the 0 axis of the strong region, rebound will continue, December contract will challenge 75.5 cents / pound pressure level, but the probability of breaking up is small, pay attention to 75-77.5 / pound of the horizontal area.

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On the 19 day, 21387 tons of dumping and storage were sold, with a turnover ratio of only 47.35%, indicating that the downstream textile enterprises have limited demand for raw materials, and the overall market downturn pattern has not changed. This seriously restricts the popularity of the market.

19 days, 12190 tons of imports and exports, a trend of volume, Xinjiang increased the number of storage enterprises, but the restrictions on seed cotton purchase prices and invoices may restrict the progress of storage.

At present, the cost of lint cotton in Xinjiang is around 19000 yuan / ton. The price difference between some enterprises and zhengmian 1301 is 1500 yuan / ton, which leads to an increasing trend in recent years.

Zheng cotton has a gap of 20400 yuan / ton storage and storage price, but its popularity is limited. Although Zheng cotton is expected to follow the rebound of the US cotton, it is difficult to break through the integer pressure level of 20000 yuan / ton. It will continue to increase the 1301 contract empty list by relying on 20000 yuan / ton pressure level, with a short-term target of 19700 yuan / ton line, and a medium-term target of 19400 yuan / ton.

[mainland futures] Zheng cotton opens high

[international spot]

In September 19th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton increased, and most varieties increased little. The varieties including cotton, Central Asia cotton and India cotton increased by more than 0.75 cents.

In fact, the price advantage of foreign cotton is very obvious at present. The C/A cotton port's delivery price in the US is less than 16000 yuan / ton, which is at least 3000 yuan lower than that of the domestic grade cotton. However, only the textile factories that still have the quota in hand can get this benefit. More textile mills will wait for the new cotton market or participate in the auction of cotton reserves.

[International Futures]

In September 19th, ICE cotton continued to show good resilience. In the case of general weakness such as crude oil and other commodities, the December contract was involved in buying, and promoted cotton prices to rise again, continuing a high consolidation pattern.

Analysts said that although many of the current adverse cotton futures, but the market is still optimistic about tonight's USDA cotton weekly export weekly, if the data is not as good as expected, cotton prices may fall back.

[domestic stock]

In September 19th, domestic cotton (19740, -60.00, -0.30%) quotas continued to rise. The national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 grade cotton prices in the mainland was 19629 yuan / ton, unchanged from September 18th. The B index (CNCotton B) representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland was 18758 yuan / ton, up 1 yuan compared with September 18th.

[domestic futures]

In September 19th, Zheng cotton fell two times after its opening, then maintained its consolidation. The afternoon oscillation dropped, and it rebounded slightly.

Among them, the average price of CF1211 contract was 19355 yuan, up 20 yuan; the average price of CF1301 contract was 19800 yuan, up 35 yuan; the average price of CF1305 contract was 19850 yuan, flat; the total turnover of the market was 193464 hands, compared with the previous trading day, 357734 hands were reduced, accumulative positions 358994 hands, reduced 8950 hands.

[cotton information]

Hebei: the weather is fine and the cotton price is low. Cotton farmers are disappointed.

Recently, the main cotton producing areas in Hebei are fine and the cotton growers in the southern Handan cotton region are picking up new flowers. At present, the picking rate is nearly 40%. The peak picking season will reach the peak during the eleven long holiday period. The picking work in Xingtai has also started a large area, and the picking rate is nearly 20% now. Hengshui and Cangzhou are only picking sporadically. Baoding and some parts of Tangshan and Tianjin do not pick new cotton yet. This is expected to begin this weekend.

At present, only a small part of the 200 type cotton processing and purchasing enterprises in Handan and Xingtai regions of Hebei province have purchased seed cotton in small quantities, and the purchase price is within 4.20 yuan / kg. Most of the cotton farmers are disappointed with the current purchase price of seed cotton.

Henan Xinye: seed cotton began to purchase, the price is basically stable.

In September 17th, the 400 type of cotton ginning factory in Xinye County of Henan province was mainly purchased, only sporadic processing began. Most of them were used for storage and storage, leaving only part of the needs for old customers. The 200 type enterprises had not yet started to purchase, and were generally in a wait-and-see state.

The cotton pickers in the early stage of the local cotton growers have basically dried up and began to sell a little. According to the cotton merchants, the current purchase price of the flower is 4 yuan / kg (38% of the clothes, 20% of the water), and the daily purchasing amount of the enterprises is about 8000 Jin; some enterprises offer 4.5 yuan / jin (38% of the clothes, 15% of water), and the daily purchase amount is 50000 kg / so; a small quantity of 5 grade seed cotton is quoted at 3.1 yuan (lint 35%, water 35%), and the daily purchase amount is 5 jin.

Due to the large amount of water impurities, the refinery takes the principle of processing along with the acquisition, and the price fluctuation is bigger. According to the size of the water, the purchase price of cottonseed is also between 1.25-1.35 yuan / Jin.

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Linfen, Shanxi: the quality of seed cotton is better than that of last year.

Recently, the weather in Linfen, Shanxi is fine, which is very good for cotton boll opening. Cotton farmers are picking up seed cotton, and the harvest amount is 100-150 Jin. As of September 18th, the amount of cotton seed picked has accounted for about 1/4 of the total output. A few of the 200 types of enterprises have bought the seeds, and the 4 seed cotton price is 3.9 yuan / jin (38% of the clothes and 13% of water content), and the cottonseed is 1.2 yuan / Jin, and the cost of processing the lint cotton is 17700 yuan / ton (excluding processing fee).

It is understood that this year's local cotton boll opening period weather conditions are good, the quality of seed cotton is better than last year, not only color white, high linen, cotton fiber length also increased by about 2mm compared with last year, processing cotton lint is hard 4, cotton farmers are mostly picked up with sale, a few cotton farmers because of dissatisfaction with the current price and wait and see.

Jiangsu Dafeng: cotton enterprises began to purchase, the quality is better than last year.

In September 19th, the boll opening rate of Jiangsu Dafeng cotton was about 10%, the picking rate was 5%, and the sale of cotton accounted for 3% of the total harvest.

Some local 400 enterprises have begun to buy in scale, about 10 days earlier than last year's acquisition.

According to the person in charge of a cotton enterprise, because the cotton growth period is relatively dry this year, the phenomenon of cotton rotten peach is less, the quality of the seed cotton on the market is generally better than last year, the clothing score is about 37%.

In September 19th, cotton merchants went to buy seed cotton (flower 3-4 level) at a price of 3.90-4.00 yuan / Jin, the purchase price of cotton enterprises was 4.00-4.10 yuan / Jin, and the purchase price of 5 seed cotton cotton enterprises was below 3.80 yuan / Jin.

It is understood that the acquisition of enterprises this year is mainly the 400 type of enterprises, with the purpose of storage, but because of the shortage of funds for cotton enterprises, and the current seed cotton purchase price is far from the cotton farmers' expectations, the purchase amount is small, and the sale of cotton is still dominated by cotton traders.

In addition, the spot price of local lint is stable. The 328 grade lint price is priced at 18700 yuan / ton (public inspection, ticket, full payment and partial acceptance of draft).

India: seed cotton is on the market and the price is bearish.

Rajasthan will begin picking cotton at the end of October after picking cotton in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

At present, the ginning factory in northern India has already signed a seed cotton purchase contract at a price of 33000 rupees / candy (356 kg).

The industry believes that as seed cotton is on the market, prices may fall.

It is reported that Oran international and Louis Dreyfus Corporation may buy Cotton in India when the supply of cotton increases.

Cotton exports in Brazil increased by 146% in 1-8 months, according to the latest forecast of the Ministry of agriculture of Brazil. In 2012, 1-8 cotton exports in Brazil totaled 483 thousand tons, an increase of 146% over the same period last year, while exports increased from 410 million US dollars to 940 million US dollars, but the export average price dropped to US $1900 / ton from 2000 US dollars / ton.

In August, the volume of exports increased from 118 thousand tons to 120 thousand tons, and exports decreased from 252 million US dollars to US $244 million.

[market review]

19 days,

Gao Kai, the two rush to fall, afternoon concussion fell, the position decreased greatly, slightly fell.

The market is unable to rise.