Cotton Prices Linger, Cotton Planting Area Will Continue To Shrink Next Year.

In September, new cotton picking began in the whole country, but

It seems that some are not happy.

Cotton farmers' gold in Dafan village, de an County, Jiangxi, tells the writer that the purchase price of cotton is about 3.8 yuan, which is lower than 4.1 yuan last year.

In Shandong, because of the low purchase price, cotton farmers have said they will give up seed cotton in the coming year.

In September 10th, the purchase and storage of cotton was officially launched, and the provisional storage price was set at 20400 yuan / ton, an increase of 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous year.

According to industry figures, the reference price of seed cotton purchase corresponding to the purchase and storage policy is about 4.2 yuan ~4.35 yuan / Jin, which has improved to a certain extent over the previous year.

However, experts said that the price has not yet reached the cotton farmers' psychological expectations, and cotton planting area will continue to show a downward trend next year.

Planting area is expected to continue to decline.

The rising cost of planting and the lingering cotton price are the main reasons for many farmers to abandon cotton seeds.

Jin Qigen told me that because of the increase in fertilizer and pesticide prices, the cost per mu increased by more than 50 yuan over last year, reaching more than 1200 yuan.

If the current price is calculated, the income per mu is only about 1700 yuan, and only four hundred or five hundred yuan will be eliminated from the net cost.

"This is basically the same as the grain yield, but it is difficult for cotton to serve, so it is hard for the villagers to bother to change rice directly."

In Shandong, many farmers said they would not like to grow again.

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Dai Zhuang village, Jin hazhuang Town, Linqing City, Shandong, was originally a famous cotton growing professional village far and near, but now the original cotton field has been replaced by large corn.

Li Maokun, a villager of Dai Zhuang village, had 16 acres of high yielding demonstration plots and 10 mu of ordinary cotton fields last year, which has decreased by 10 mu this year.

Li Maokun said: "planting cotton is not cost-effective. This year I changed 10 mu of cotton to grain and Chinese herbal medicine, and next year we should reduce the area of seed cotton."

Statistics show that in 2012, cotton planting area in Shandong province was 10 million 200 thousand mu, down 9.6% from the same period last year.

The first textile network analyst Wang Qian said in an interview with the author that the current national purchasing and storage price is basically established at the top price, while the price of new cotton will fluctuate around the purchasing and storage price, but the possibility is higher than that of the reserve price.

If the comparative income of seed cotton can not keep up with other crops, the possibility of planting area will decrease.

Sun Liwu, an information analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that under the condition of many problems in every link of the cotton industry chain, the state policy was forced to stand up to try to ensure the relative stability of the cotton market.

However, cotton farming is time-consuming and the income is not high. The state's direct subsidy is still relatively weak. The actual income of cotton farmers is hard to get comprehensive and effective protection. The cotton planting area may still decrease in the new year.

Import or decrease of cotton in later period

While cotton growers are reluctant to go on the price of cotton, China's cotton imports have increased significantly this year, and the import volume of over 5 million tons has also reached a record high.

The direct reason for the large increase in imports is that the price spreads between domestic and overseas cotton continue to expand, making foreign cheap cotton directly impact the domestic market.

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of the Dezhou Cotton Association of Shandong, said in an interview with the author that the state's purchase and storage is mainly based on protecting the interests of farmers, but the state can also "high and low throw" to subsidize the industry.

It is reported that in the early September, the national reserve sold hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton and sold at the base price of 18500 yuan / ton, and the price at last was generally around 18700 yuan / ton.

The US Department of agriculture's latest supply and demand report predicts that China's imports will decrease by 51% compared to the 2012-2013 market year beginning in August 1st.

But experts say that the amount of imports depends mainly on national policies.

Sun Liwu believes that the global cotton initial inventory in 2012/2013 is about 15 million 210 thousand tons, of which nearly 40% are in China, and more lint will be imported into the country in the coming year.

"Therefore, the disposal of national cotton reserves will become the global impact.

The most critical factor. "