Comments On Cotton Futures Market On September 19, 2012

　 Market conditions today:

"The pavilion is still closed after returning, and there are a few autumn breezes in the trees". The QE3 effect of the Federal Reserve had a mixed reaction in the global commodity market last night, with some industrial products continuing to rise and some agricultural products (000061) falling. Relevant national departments cotton The speech affected the market, making the adjustment range of Zhengzhou cotton season limited today. At the end of the day, Zheng Mian Index fell 10 points to 19778, with the total turnover shrinking to 193000, and the total position decreasing by 8950 to 359000. The main force 1301 fell 5 points to 19760, the volume of transactions decreased to 168000, and the positions decreased by 10290 to 237000. The PTA index fell 7 points to 7932. From the perspective of the cotton market, under the influence of the purchase and storage policy and the tightening of spot circulation cotton, the cotton index continued to move upward slightly.

　 Relevant markets:

Last night, the US dollar rose, and international agricultural product prices corrected, but the US cotton index continued to rebound slightly. The ICE cotton index rose 0.70 cents to 76.39 cents in the final session; The December contract rose 0.69 cents to 76.02 cents. Today, the import cotton price index M rose 0.48 cents to 89.92 cents, with the sliding standard tax price to 15288, within the same range Cotton price Less than 3351 yuan/ton. In terms of domestic spot goods today, China's cotton price index continued to rise slightly by 3 points to 18642. The current price difference of Phase 1301 is 1118. On September 19, the number of registered warehouse receipts of Zhengshang Exchange decreased by 4 to 1135 (1135+13). In terms of yarn price, 32S is still 25250 today, and 40S is still 30610. Today, Dachunwu rose to 11250, while Sticky Shortwu rose to 30-15200. The sales of large textile enterprises are slightly better, while the pressure of small textile enterprises is still high. The contracts in the matchmaking market were corrected today, with MA1301 falling 105 to 19470.

　　 Related messages:

The Electricity Regulatory Commission released the monitoring report on the operation of the electric power industry in August 2012. It found that the power consumption of the whole society was 449.5 billion kilowatt hours, up 3.58% year on year, and the growth rate was 0.93 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The trend of power growth reflects economic fluctuations accurately and is more sensitive to changes in industrial added value.

On the 19th, the Bank of Japan decided to further add monetary easing measures, expanding the size of funds used to purchase assets by 10 trillion yen (about $126.4 billion). This is the Bank of Japan's further monetary easing measures since April this year.

At the "2012 National Cotton Situation Analysis Meeting", officials from the National Development and Reform Commission said that the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices had limited impact on the textile industry. With a large number of new cotton listed this year, it is unnecessary for countries to put in reserves. The quota of imported cotton will not be issued later this year, and will be determined next year when the supply and demand situation is clear.

　 Technical Kanban:

Today, Zheng Mian Index closed at the star line, and the cotton index experienced a small short-term callback after breaking through the upward trend in combination with the K-line pattern. From the perspective of volume price relationship, the downward force is limited due to the decrease of transaction and position. The indicators MACD, RSI and KDJ maintained upward. All indicators of CF1301 are the same as the index.

　 Future prospects:

Global easing policy And the domestic purchase and storage policy has provided a small sunny climate for the development of the cotton price warming market for a period of time. From the perspective of the futures and spot market, under the atmosphere of being supported by the downturn, although downstream consumption did not improve much, the motivation of active short selling was obviously insufficient for fear of the above factors. Therefore, the future rebound is safe, and more single continued.