Domestic Cotton: Psychological Support Will Not Last Long.

"Downstream demand is sluggish, upstream raw materials, manpower,

The cotton spot enterprises have experienced a rare predicament in the past 10 years.

The purchase and storage of stocks, the timing of dumping and storage, and the import quotas are wavering. Cotton futures have experienced a new round of continuous slump.

Even if the temporary purchase and storage policy is launched this year, it will be very difficult for the cotton to shake off the downward trend.

This is the overall judgment of the recent cotton trend at the forum of cotton futures face base held by Zheng Shang Shang, a senior business director of the national cotton storage information center.

She believes that the impact of uncertain natural disasters will be controlled by the state's policy of dumping and storage. The acquisition and storage of the cotton market in September will only play a psychological role in the market, and it will not be too long.

"The situation of zero or short turnover in the cotton futures market may last until October."

Specifically, Mei Yong explained that in September 10th, the national cotton temporary purchase and storage in 2012 was officially implemented. According to the regulations, the fixed price of purchasing and storing was 20 thousand and 400 yuan / ton, which was 1765 yuan / ton higher than the average price of cotton in the whole country.

The regulation and control policy of protecting and protecting the interests of farmers and stabilizing market supply is reflected in the fact that the ~18 date cotton showed a downward trend in September 10th, but the decline slowed down. Turnover did not show marked improvement. The market short trend is still relatively strong. The NDRC may again raise the market information slightly by purchasing and storing, but the impact of dumping can not be underestimated.

At the same time, the harshness of the market lies in the whole cotton.

Problems arise.

Mei Yong said that a new round of continuous slump in cotton prices is only a representation. The problem of the overall industrial chain of cotton enterprises is the essence.

According to the data from the national cotton market monitoring system, cotton production in China has decreased by 680 thousand tons over the past year, and consumption has increased by 150 thousand tons over last year. The import volume has decreased by 2 million 580 thousand tons compared with last year. The end inventory has increased by 1 million 600 thousand tons, that is, the supply of cotton at the grassroots level is overcapacity.

In addition, the production of cotton substitute, chemical fiber, has increased steadily in recent years, which has occupied the market space of cotton.

"Therefore, as a whole, the cotton industry chain has great problems and the prospects are not optimistic.

The overall industry chain improvement will take longer than boosting market demand.

Mei Yong said.

In terms of the import quotas commonly expected by spot businesses, Mei believes that the country may not increase substantially this year.

The number of import quotas will be limited to the processing trade, and the quota will be less than last year.

It is estimated that a group of national cotton reserves will be imported by the end of August next year.

Wang Wei, a cotton researcher at Zhongyuan Futures Limited, believes that the current market is not clear about the total amount of cotton purchase and storage in the country, but the dumping and storage paction will end on the 29 th of this month, which will benefit the cotton market.