Clothing Cotton Price Double Sky Market Expects "Visible Hand" To Be Extended In Due Time

As the temperature goes down, it is the annual "clothes and clothes" season. However, many consumers found that when the economic growth slowed cotton Under the background of falling prices of raw materials, the cost of "reloading" increased rather than decreased.

Since this year, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has continued to decline, the prices of clothing, meat and eggs, rent and other products related to people's livelihood have continued to rise. As the "food, clothing, housing and transportation" is getting higher and higher, the market expects the "visible hand" to be extended in due time.

　 Clothing is almost unaffordable

It is the 2012 Shanghai Shopping Festival, and with the advance of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day "Double Festival", the busy shopping malls have stimulated many consumers' shopping desire. Miss Luo, who has just joined the company and plans to buy professional clothes, said: "I can't afford to buy clothes that frequently exceed four figures in the Xujiahui (002561, Guba) business district. A shirt costs 500 to 600 yuan, while a coat costs thousands of yuan."

"In the first two years, the clothing of the brand store was still a little expensive when it was between 500 yuan and 700 yuan, but now if it is in the mall, it is a common phenomenon that a brand clothing is priced between 1200 yuan and 1500 yuan." Miss Yang, who often goes shopping in the mall, told reporters that no matter how the price of raw materials changes, it is basically a "routine" for businesses to take another round of seasonal increase.

Out of season clothes are not cheap either. Miss Chen, who came to Shanghai from Jiangsu Province, said: "In Yaxin Department Store, three short sleeved T-shirts can be sold together at a discount of 70%, but after careful calculation, the average price of each one is about 150 yuan. The key is that the design and style of these clothes are very ordinary, and the summer clothes that can make people shine relatively have to cost more than 500 yuan."

If the clothes in the glass cabinet are expensive, it is because the stores and agents have increased their prices. Why is it more and more expensive to "buy" things from the Internet? "Taobao controlled" Ms. Cai told reporters that she spent about 2000 yuan on Taobao every month, including about 1000 yuan for clothes. But now it is more difficult to find clothes with reliable quality and novel style online, and they are more expensive than before. The previous budget of 1000 yuan can buy 5 clothes, but now it can buy up to 3 clothes.

Upsurge in the mainland clothing The price makes some consumers turn to overseas. "On the one hand, it is to seek overseas purchasing opportunities; on the other hand, some white-collar friends around even use the weekend to shop in Hong Kong," said Miss Yang.

Why is the cotton price of clothing "double sky"?

Compared with the rising trend of clothing prices, the cotton market, one of the upstream raw materials, is a different scene.

Due to the sluggish market demand, the domestic cotton price has fallen for two consecutive years, and the cotton price index of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen by 5.2% since this year. Data provided by Zhuochuang Information shows that cotton prices in the first 20 days of September fell by nearly 6% compared with the same period last year. "Against the background of sluggish domestic and foreign demand, the cotton market has largely relied on policies such as purchasing and storage," said Sun Liwu, an analyst with Zhuochuang Information.

In fact, the huge price difference between raw materials and finished products has not translated into the profits of the textile and clothing industry. According to the statistics of Caihui, 84 listed companies in the textile and clothing sector achieved a cumulative net profit of 6.413 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of nearly 20% compared with the same period last year, of which the loss of the largest loss making enterprises in the first half of the year was almost three times that of the same period last year.

Due to the greater decline in cotton prices in the international market, the domestic textile and clothing industry is in great trouble at present. Data shows that the US cotton price index has continued to fall by more than 17% since this year, on the basis of a drop of more than 30% in 2011. "The price of cotton in the international market is far lower than that in China, so textile enterprises are under double pressure. The price of raw materials is higher than that of international peers, and the market demand is shrinking," said Zhang Chao, an analyst with CITIC Xinji.

In the view of insiders, with the implementation of the loose policy, the rising cost of human resources, channels, brands and other links has become the "culprit" of the industry profits. For example, the brand building link that domestic enterprises despise requires great investment. "Brand investment is much higher than the price of raw materials, especially in the price system of high-end clothing, where the price of raw materials accounts for a very small proportion," said Zhu Qinghua, a researcher of light industry at CIC Consulting.

　　 The "visible hand" must be extended timely

In addition to clothing, in fact, most of the major commodities that have risen since this year include meat and eggs, rent and other options related to people's livelihood. Analysts pointed out that although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI has continued to decline in recent years, the cost and currency transmission of livelihood related commodities have continued to rise, and the imported inflation of industrial products, especially raw materials such as crude oil, has significantly reduced. However, under the background of recent easing policies introduced by major countries, the import The two factors of cost driven inflation are likely to "meet again".

"The easing policy will promote the overall upward trend of commodity prices." Chen Kexin, an expert of the China Commercial Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, said that after countries announced to continue to implement the easing policy in succession, commodities with strong financial attributes such as precious metals and crude oil will be the first to respond, while agricultural products and other products will "rise with the tide", and the inflation effect will gradually appear.

According to the analysis of Rabobank, the recent surge in agricultural product prices is leading the world to enter a "period of agricultural inflation" again. It is expected that food prices will hit a new high in 2013 and will last until the third quarter.

To this end, experts pointed out that in the face of market The "invisible hand" continues to push up, and the government must also extend its "visible hand" at the right time: on the one hand, it should strengthen market supervision, increase effective supply, and prevent the intermediate link from "sitting on the ground"; On the other hand, we should vigorously promote the reform of income distribution. "Only when the income of most residents grows faster than the growth rate of consumer prices, will actual consumption not shrink. At present, there is still much room in this regard. For example, in the initial distribution, the growth rate of residents' income is not only far lower than the financial income, but also lower than the growth rate of enterprise income." Some experts pointed out.