Manufacturing PMI Continued To Rebound For 4 Months.

China logistics and purchasing Federation, National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center released 1 data, manufacturing PMI reported 49.8% in September, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, which is the first rise since May this year.

Major indexes rebounded significantly

Starting in May this year,

The PMI index fell for four consecutive months, and dropped to 50% below 49.2% in August, which is another 50% decline since November last year.

Generally speaking, when the PMI index is higher than 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of the manufacturing industry; less than 50% reflects the contraction of the manufacturing industry.

Judging from the 11 sub indices, only the finished goods inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index decreased slightly in September, and the other indexes all picked up in varying degrees, especially the new leading orders index and raw material inventory index.

Vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing

In an interview with reporters, the main index of the first obvious rise, indicating that the steady growth of national policies and measures effect gradually emerged, economic operation gradually stabilized bottom, for the four quarter of stable economic growth has laid a good foundation.

Data show that the new order index rose 1.1 percentage points to 49.8%, the production index rose 0.4 percentage points to 51.3%, the new export orders index and import index rose 2.2 percentage points, 0.7 percentage points reported 48.8% and 47.7%, finished product inventory index was 0.3 points lower than last month 0.3 points, and the purchase price index picked up 4.9 percentage points to 4.9.

SMEs still face difficulties

From the point of view of industry, agricultural and sideline food processing industry, textile industry

Clothing industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing, tobacco products industry and other 8 industries were higher than 50%; electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, textile industry and other 13 industries were below 50%.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that the PMI index rebounded in September, indicating that the signs of stabilizing the bottom of the economy have become obvious, and the downward trend of economic growth has begun to change.

However, it is worth noting that under the current weak economic situation, enterprises of different sizes are obviously divided, and SMEs still face survival difficulties.

Data show that the PMI of large enterprises is 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from last month, returning to the critical point, but the PMI of medium and small enterprises is 49.8% and 46.7% respectively, not only lower than 50%, but also down 0.1 and 1 percentage points respectively.

Under such circumstances, many experts suggest that fiscal and tax policies can play a bigger role in the future relative to monetary policy. Only by helping enterprises reduce their burdens can they further activate the enthusiasm of enterprises.

Viewpoint

Annual economic growth rate is expected to exceed 7.5%

Experts said that the new export orders index rose sharply, indicating that the downward trend of external demand will be reversed.

According to the survey of purchasing managers of China's manufacturing industry in September, Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that the downward trend of economic growth began to change, and the economic growth in the future is expected to rise steadily.

However, in the view of Lu commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, PMI rebounded in September, which may be caused by seasonal factors.

Historical data show that in September, PMI tends to pick up, driven by new orders and production indices.

In 2005, there was no exception for one year in -2011, with an average increase of 2 percentage points.

Cai Jin, vice president of China logistics and purchasing Federation, told reporters that there was seasonal factor in the PMI rebound in September, but the signs of economic stabilization were also obvious.

A number of positive factors are gradually taking shape, laying a good foundation for the steady growth of the fourth quarter.

"The new export orders index has risen sharply by 2.2 percentage points, indicating that the downturn in external demand will be reversed in the future."

Cai Jin said.

Gao Zhong, chief China strategist of the Wealth Management Research Department of UBS, believes that the European situation will no longer continue to deteriorate and will support China's exports. The introduction of the US QE3 will further improve China's export situation.

"As long as the global economy is still weak, rather than continuing to deteriorate, we need not worry that China's exports will decline sharply on the basis of the current weakness."

And for many of the experts who had been worried about the problem of stock squeezing profits, many experts thought it was coming to an end.

The finished product inventory index has been less than 50% for 3 consecutive months, making room for production and supply.

Zhang Liqun pointed out that the rise of new orders index reflects the steady growth of domestic investment and consumption demand; the rise of the new export orders index indicates that the export starts to recover; the finished product inventory index continues to decline, and the raw material purchasing index picks up, indicating that the enterprise's stock taking activities are almost over; and the production index rebounded, which indicates that the production of enterprises is beginning to resume as a result of the increase in orders.