Traditional Retail Industry To Weaken Electricity Supplier Threat

Rising data in August is hard to say.

China national business information network and Ministry of Commerce released the data of key retail enterprises in August. The retail sales volume of 100, 50 and 1000 key retail enterprises increased by 8.41%, 9.41% and 8.5%, respectively, rising by 1%, 3.2% and 0.7% respectively.

However, the data fell by 13.8%, 10.9% and 6.2% respectively over the same period last year.

Minsheng Securities believes that there are two reasons for the August consumer market to be better than July. First, the impact of extreme natural weather on Residents' consumption in August has been alleviated and eliminated in August, and the retail market has returned to normal order. Two, many retail businesses have launched promotional activities with the help of Tanabata, summer holidays and changing season.

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Affected by the market discount, the sales of 100 key retail enterprises increased by 16.72% over the same period last year, 5.23% higher than that in July. This is the second increase in the monthly growth rate this year.

Minsheng Securities pointed out that the July and August data is expected, the two quarter is the off-season itself, the index data in the off-season obviously improved, which is not logical. The industry's current state is that the data are not obviously positive. The fourth quarter data will be better than the two or three quarter logically. However, the frequent increase in industrial capital is the signal at the bottom of the industry.

"The expected four quarter year-on-year improvement is only based on the low base effect in the same period of 2011. From the perspective of channel grassroots research and clothing ordering, it is difficult to exceed expectations, while retail sales lag behind the real economy. The current economic downturn continues, and retail data are hard to say."

Hongyuan Securities said that while the industry inflection point still needs to wait, the retail sector in the four quarter has begun to pick up.

Statistics show that in 2012, the mid term net profit of retail department stores decreased by 1.15% compared with the same period last year. The retail sales volume of 100 retail enterprises increased by 11.02% in the first half of the year, which was only higher than that in 2009 in the past 6 years.

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In an interview with reporters, executives of listed companies said that the price of many enterprises was too low, and they could buy some as strategic investments.

It is hard to say whether the bottom of performance is coming.

Insiders pointed out that although the government recently issued a series of policies, including the "12th Five-Year plan" for the development of domestic trade, it was proposed that by 2015, the total retail sales of the society will grow to 15% annually, and the rate of bank card reduction should be lowered.

For ordinary consumers, after the dustfall of the electricity supplier war, they still have to go to the supermarket to buy their favorite snacks, drinks and other daily necessities. They still like to go to the mall to try on all kinds of costumes, and still enjoy the enjoyment of visual and smell brought by physical consumer goods.

Tian Xiang Securities pointed out that the electricity supplier industry is still in the initial stage of development, although it has certain impact on the traditional retail industry, but the traditional retail format will still exist for a long time.

According to the quantitative calculation of Shenyin and Wanguo, the impact of online shopping on the physical retail department stores is the largest, with the electrical appliance industry being the most affected by electricity providers, with an amplitude of about 14.3%. The number of stores in the next few years will be further increased to 50% to 60%. The department stores are less affected by the impact, with a magnitude of about 2.5%, which may further increase to 6.8% to 16.8% in the future.

In fact, shopping in the mall to see home appliances and buying online shopping has become the choice of many consumers. Few consumers go to the supermarket to buy drinks and then go home and buy online.

Shenyin Wanguo research data show that at present, the gross margin of traditional retailers is about 20%, steady and slightly declining, while most of the electricity suppliers are not more than 10%. The net retail interest rate is about 4%, while the domestic electricity suppliers are mostly at a loss, with a mean value of about 10%.

"Although online retailing remains strong growth, it has changed from rapid growth to rapid growth.

On the one hand, the growth rate of online shopping is decreasing. On the other hand, the growth rate of physical retail is expected to remain at 10% to 15%. The gap between the growth rate of online shopping and the growth rate of 20% to 30% has narrowed considerably compared with the previous years. The growth rate of online shopping has remained at 200% to 300% levels in the previous few years.

The peak of online shopping growth has eroded the share of physical retail sales, and the physical retail industry gradually found the strategy and rhythm to deal with.

Shenyin Wanguo believes that from the perspective of the impact of the electricity supplier, "the worst moment" may have passed.