Guoxin Securities: Textile And Apparel Terminal Slowdown In The Four Quarter Textile And Apparel Industry Strategy

　 Terminal slowdown, selected stocks

Terminal retail growth slowed down, the level of growth differentiation.

Brands since the three quarter Clothes & Accessories There was no obvious improvement in terminal retail, nor did it deteriorate further. But at the same time, the growth rate at different levels was significantly differentiated. The retail situation of the three or four tier cities is better than that of the second tier cities. Clothing consumption has shifted significantly, and non department stores are better than department stores.

Overseas economic downturn, processing and manufacturing pressure

The processing and manufacturing sector of textile and garment industry has a high degree of dependence on exports, which has continued for the first half of the year. Under the background of the overseas economic downturn, the low price spreads of cotton prices and the rising cost of elements, the boom has continued to decline. No matter from the quality of earnings, profits and profits, there is no obvious improvement.

Cosmetics industry is more robust and has a strong ability to pass through the cycle. Spin clothing The three quarterly report of the key companies in the daily chemical industry

Performance growth (net income attributable to parent company) is expected to be over 50%: Shanghai Jahwa, card slave Road, search for special; performance growth rate in 40-50% has a long position share, Pathfinder; performance growth in 30-40% has seven wolves, nine shepherd and good news birds; performance growth rate in 20-30% has AOKANG International, fuanna; performance growth rate in 0-20% has American state dress and Hinur; performance growth rate is expected to have negative growth of Luo Lai home textile, Semir dress, Lu Tai, Weixing shares.

Fourth quarter textile clothing and daily chemical industry strategy

For the fourth quarter, we recommend that we focus on the smaller and faster expansion of the card road, the search and special stock, and the opportunity to switch valuations in the four quarter. At the same time, we have long been optimistic about the investment value of Shanghai Jahwa. At the same time, tracking the fourth quarter of the terminal situation, focusing on the valuation of the depth adjustment of key companies rebound opportunities, seven wolves and news birds performance certainty is strong, and valuation has repair space.

Sub sectors, for the textile manufacturing industry, the overall bearish; the core of the industry performance inflection point is demand recovery after the cotton prices stabilized and picked up. For brand clothing enterprises, the fourth quarter is the income of brand clothing enterprises. profit In the key quarter, consumer confidence and weather will be the key factors affecting the terminal performance of the fourth quarter.

The fourth quarter valuation switch requires us to focus on the relevant order meeting in 2013.