Major Projects In Listed Companies Show That Clothing And Textiles Are In Danger.

The "singles day" shopping and shopping culture launched by Taobao has been passed to the major businesses under the online and offline businesses.

Full-court

The half off discount has not been as attractive as it used to be.

Red men and green girls, multicolored neon.

Journalists also want to take advantage of the commercial "spree" strength, based on the three quarterly report of clothing listed companies, to investigate and investigate this industry which is easy to be ignored by every investor.

The risk of this industry is self-evident.

First of all, it is complex enough, some of which belong to the lower reaches of chemical industry, and some are closely related to agricultural products (000061), such as cotton prices.

Secondly, it is sensitive to rising costs and sensitive to downstream demand, thus forming a dual character of cyclical and consumer.

Again, the industry has its own attributes, and inventory is its biggest natural enemy, because the process of inventory almost means that its profits shrink.

When the crisis hit, it was silent.

Net interest rate decreased slightly by 1.5%

Let's take a look at the whole situation first.

According to the classification of Shen Wan, 79 garments

The company eliminated ST companies, and the main companies such as Shanshan stock group (600884), YOUNGOR (600177) and other companies, leaving 68 main textile and garment categories.

Overall, net sales in the third quarter decreased by about 1.5% compared with the same quarter, and net profit fell by 34% compared with the same period last year, and inventories rose 7% compared with the same period last year.

In the textile and apparel industry, where the gross profit margins were not high, the decline in gross margins caused by the downturn in the industry is not obvious. Compared with the 68 companies, the gross profit margin in the three quarter of this year is not much different from that in 2011, and the gross profit margin is about 25%.

And subdivision, the gross profit margin of textile manufacturing is even more obvious. As the upstream raw material, the price of raw materials increases the compression of profit space more obviously.

Moreover, the prime time for textile manufacturing to export at low labor costs has passed. The deterioration of the economic environment in Europe and the United States has aggravated the downturn in the textile manufacturing export industry.

At the same time, last year's cotton roller coaster market resulted in a high inventory price of raw materials in the first half of 2012, while the selling price of finished products was low, resulting in a sharp decline in gross profit margin, Lu Tai A (000726) (000726.SZ).

(002042) gross margin of sales (002042.SZ) decreased by more than 7 percentage points in the first half of the year.

Relatively speaking, clothing products companies are relatively good, especially men's clothing.

Among them, more than 5 years listed seven wolves (002029) (002029.SZ), good news birds (002154) (002154.SZ) also in the three quarter of 2012, the highest quarterly gross profit margin of nearly five years.

However, the relative stability of gross margin can not cover up the crisis in the industry.

This may be more convincing by the company's net profit.

Direct crisis -- serious decline in net profit

In the third quarter, the net profit of the whole industry dropped by 34% compared with the same period last year, while textile manufacturing was hit by a drop of more than 50%, while the clothing and home textiles category dropped by 10.28%.

Accumulatively, net profit attributable to parent shareholders in the first three quarters fell by 18% compared with the same period last year, while textile manufacturing declined 36.38%, while apparel home textiles increased slightly by 0.63%.

According to customs statistics, textile and garment exports dropped further in the 1-8 months of this year, with a total export of US $161 billion 990 million, a decrease of 0.7%, of which 62 billion 510 million US dollars in textile exports and 99 billion 480 million US dollars in clothing exports, all down 0.7%.

The increase in orders in autumn and winter in September has made exports warmer. Therefore, accumulative total exports of textiles and clothing totaled 187 billion 100 million US dollars in 1-9 months, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the same period last year, of which 71 billion 50 million of textile exports and 116 billion 60 million US dollars of clothing exports increased by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively.

But the rise in domestic costs and the weakness of foreign economies have made the garment industry's high growth no longer available.

At the national textile industry quality conference in November 8th, Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation, introduced the operation of the textile industry in the first three quarters of this year, indicating that the textile industry's efficiency has declined significantly.

Inventories increased by 56% in less than two years.

The sharp decline of net profit is not corresponding to the high inventory of the company. Although the heavy responsibility of stock went to the top of every big enterprise in the year, the effect is not obvious from the current data.

The two giants of casual wear, Semir and Smith Barney, were trapped in high inventory. Although the two quarters of the three quarter's operating income fell sharply, the stock went up all the way.

(002563) the operating profit of the first three quarters of (002563.SZ) declined by 46.6%, and the operating profit was only 578 million yuan, but the inventory was completely undigested and remained above 1 billion 400 million.

In contrast, from the earnings report, the stock of Smith Barney (002269) dropped from 2 billion 982 million yuan a year ago to 2 billion 199 million yuan.

{page_break}

The inventory of the entire garment and textile industry is currently 34 billion 700 million yuan, up 7% from 2011.

From a longer cycle, the inventory problem of clothing and textiles has been accumulating for a long time. As the number of listed companies gradually increases, we use the data of the average number of stocks per company. We can see that the average stock of the listed companies in the industry has been on the rise since the first quarter of 2010. The average stock in two years increased from 363 million to 569 million in 2010, and 56% in less than two years.

The stock of 000982.SZ, which has been criticized for its disease, surged from 979 million yuan in early 2010 to 2 billion 512 million in the three quarter of 2012.

Although the company's net profit grew rapidly in the same period, the high debt ratio and high inventory backlog still kept many risks for the company.

Morima Mikuni, a veteran casual wear: defeated

The old casual clothing mainly refers to Semir clothing (002563.SZ) and 002269.SZ, the two largest two casual wear companies.

Whether in 2008, the US bond apparel listed in Waterloo or the new Semir listed in 2011, they all met with their achievements. The US bond semi annual report achieved a 21% revenue growth and a 39% year-on-year decline in inventory performance.

However, the three quarter revenue growth declined significantly, and returned to 2 billion 200 million of the high inventory level.

Semir's growth in the first three quarters of the year is still negative, but its decline has slowed down.

A good performance Pathfinder (300005) (300005.SZ), operating income growth rate continued to slow down, but the first three quarters still maintained a high growth rate of 45%, and the year-on-year growth of inventories was higher, partly due to the small base.

This is also related to the change of the consumption concept of the 80 90% of the casual clothes. On the one hand, it is hit by online shopping, and on the other hand, it is impacted by the international fast fashion.

And the three or four line of search at special (002503) (002503.SZ) is currently relatively low impact on these two aspects, and the performance is still maintained high growth.

Men's wear: revenue growth begins to decline

Men's clothing is the best performing sub section of China Daily, with faster revenue growth, higher cost and better inventory control.

The clothing industry can maintain the gross profit margin now also relies on the men's clothing this part to pull up.

The new listing of 002656.SZ (002656) is eye-catching and men's overall performance is superior to that of the industry.

Three quarterly reports can still reflect the growth of men's clothing and inventory increase.

Seven wolves (002029.SZ) and nine Mu Wang (601566) (601566.SH) revenue growth slowed down significantly. In the single quarter, the growth rate of the seven wolves increased from 26.22% in the first quarter of this year to 13.43% in the three quarter.

The nine shepherd kings fell from 22.58% at the beginning of the year to 15.82%.

Gross profit margin continued to grow year-on-year, but the growth rate has declined in the third quarter, and the sales cost rate has increased over the same period year-on-year. Inventory rose significantly over the same period, with a year-on-year growth of more than 50%.

Although the company is expanding sales, inventories are growing faster than revenue growth.

Women's apparel part (002612) three quarter revenue growth slowed down compared with the first half of the year, gross profit margin in the three quarter of last year still rose, but inventories and accounts receivable increased too fast.