Analysis Of Cotton PTA'S Early November 12, 2012 View

OPEC said last Friday that the slowdown in the European economy and slower growth in China and India could lead to less than expected growth in oil demand in 2013.

OPEC currently expects world oil demand to increase by 770 thousand barrels per day in 2013, a decrease of 10 thousand barrels compared with the previous forecast.

But it said there might be more downward revision later.

China's exports increased 11.6% in October, up 9% from market expectations, and also exceeded 9.9% in September.

But imports increased by 2.4% in October compared with September, down from 3.1%.

The growth of imports is stagnant and exports are accelerating. This shows that China's domestic economy has stabilized and the possibility of stimulating economic measures has been reduced.

Britain warned other EU countries that they might hinder the establishment of a unified banking supervision scheme in the eurozone unless those countries that were not included in the system could be subject to more safeguards.

The British side has been more and more frustrated at the end of its request in the negotiations.

The British ambassador strongly assert that Britain will not agree to pass the entire regulatory plan until the potential problems of the banking alliance will become dominant in the future EU.

Seven other countries also support the appeal of Britain to solve this problem as soon as possible.

The EU is worried that Britain will negate the resolution because of pressure from the banking union to impose on the city of London.

This is one of the important tests of whether the 27 EU members can exist together in a more tightly integrated single market in the euro area.

Cotton in early view:

On Friday, ICE cotton went down and closed the line. The main contract in December fell 0.10 cents to 70.44 cents / pound. The short term weak market is expected to continue in technical graphics.

Zhengmian 1305 contract closed on Friday and closed at 19065 points, down 15 points from the previous trading day.

The top twenty leaders increased their positions from 2763 to 57310 and 1858 to 64344.

Technically, the short term price is weak, and the bottom is still expected to test the support level of 19000 yuan / ton.

Cotton warehouse receipt information: cotton warehouse receipts totaled 758 (of which 258 Xinjiang cotton), 8 fewer than the previous day (0 Xinjiang cotton, 8 inland cotton), 13 effective forecasts.

In terms of fundamentals, domestic cotton CC Index 328 price index: 18754 (+5), imported cotton FC Index M price index: 83.34 cents / pound (-0.09), 1% tariff 13417 yuan / ton, discount slip quasi tax to 14398 yuan / ton, and cotton price difference to -4356 yuan / ton.

According to the latest global demand and supply forecast released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), this year's global

At the beginning of the year, the stock was 15 million 160 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons compared with the previous forecast; output of 25 million 440 thousand tons, an increase of 110 thousand over the previous forecast; consumption of 23 million 150 thousand, reduction of 120 thousand; end of stock 17 million 480 thousand, an increase of 250 thousand.

China: the output of this year is 6 million 860 thousand tons, unchanged from the previous forecast; consumption of 7 million 730 thousand tons, reduction of 110 thousand tons; ending inventory of 8 million 80 thousand tons, an increase of 110 thousand tons.

The United States: cotton production in the current year is 3 million 800 thousand tons, ending inventory is 1 million 260 thousand tons, up 30 thousand tons and 40 thousand tons respectively, compared with last time, and consumption is 2 million 530 thousand tons, the same as last forecast.

India: the annual production stocks were 555, 479 and 1 million 900 thousand tons respectively, unchanged from the previous forecast.

The US Department of agriculture monthly report is bad in the market, so ICE cotton first fell and then rose after the implementation of the news, and some short positions opened up to support the market.

The domestic cotton market is still running smoothly, and the purchasing of textile enterprises persists in buying and selling with the purchase. The high-grade resources in the market are more popular, but they have no choice but to buy and store and quota restrictions. Therefore, textile enterprises are beginning to purchase real estate cotton.

In the future, the cotton market will remain in a game of low demand and policy support. With the gradual increase in the number of storage and acquisition, the domestic cotton price supporting effect will become more obvious. However, at the beginning of the year, the 894 thousand tons of domestic tariff quotas issued in the second half of the year and the late stage due to the difficulty in storage and storage caused by the decline in quality will also restrict the growth of cotton prices. Therefore, the author believes that there is no big market for domestic cotton market in the short term, and that the cotton futures market should not be overlooked in the policy period.

As of 9, 2012 tons of cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 2231830 tons in 2012. The total turnover of Xinjiang was 1551120 tons, and the total turnover of the mainland was 680710 tons.

Operation suggestion: at present, CF1305 sees more and less action, and the radical can rely on 19000 yuan / ton light warehouse to do more.

Early view PTA:

Overnight, the WTI crude oil closed down the high line and closed the main line. The main contract in December rose by 0.98 US dollars to 86.07 dollars per barrel. On the average system, it still maintained a good short queue, and the short-term market was weak, but the price was stronger at 84 USD / barrel line.

The TA1305 contract closed on Friday, closing at 7512 points, down 2 points from the previous session.

The top twenty bulls reduced their positions from 1907 to 72257, shorting their positions from 1187 to 81304, and generally speaking, the air side strength was slightly dominant.

In terms of technical graphics, short-term consolidation is expected to continue, and the price will be stronger in the 7400 yuan / ton line.

Spot: PX external: $1560 / ton (-14), PTA external: $1087 / ton (+4), PTA inner disk: 8120 yuan / ton (0), MEG external disk: 1065 US dollars / ton (0), MEG inner disk: 7830 yuan / ton (0), polyester chip: 9950 yuan / ton (0).

PTA internal and external market is relatively calm, the downstream polyester market is also the main stability, although crude oil has dropped sharply, due to PX remain strong, cost support.

Generally speaking, the market is dominated by sideways, and the short and short market is hard to get good. The shipments of enterprises are strong. It is expected that the polyester and polyester short market will still be dominated by weak finishing in the near future.

Operation suggestion: PTA1305 contract 7400 yuan / ton 7600 yuan / ton high throwing low suction rolling operation.

(for reference only)