Market Analysis Of Textile And Garment Industry In 2013

< p > industry strategy: we believe that next year will be the year when the industry hit bottom. It is also the year when the plate has been greatly adjusted to recuperate. It is also a dull year. There may be neither big gains nor big risks.

The export order outflow of textile < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > clothing > /a > is irreversible, making it difficult for the relevant enterprises to get high value and high growth; domestic enterprises are facing pformation, and the future growth will be more dependent on characteristics and endogeny, and there is uncertainty in the pformation, which makes it difficult for the relevant enterprises to improve their valuation at a time; < /p >

< p > recommended portfolio: we continue to suggest that we should focus on manufacturing leading enterprises and high-quality brand retail leading enterprises, Taihe new material, Weixing, Lu Tai, seven wolves, AOKANG, fuanna and nine Mu Wang.

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< p > < strong > industry view < /strong > < /p >

In 2012, whether P exports or domestic sales, the textile industry's efficiency declined.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in 2012 1-10, the year-on-year growth rates of retail sales and retail sales were 14.2% and 2.4%, respectively, compared with 20.4% and 4.9% in 2011. The total export volume of textiles and clothing was 209 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 2% over the same period last year, which is far from the growth rate of 24.99% in 2011.

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< p > 2013 may be the bottom line of the industry benefit: the four major factors that slow down the industrial efficiency are difficult to change, namely, macroeconomic slowdown, overexpansion of enterprises, high demand for demand, and homogenization.

Relatively speaking, the recovery of the export manufacturing industry may be a little earlier than that of the retail industry because of the early start of the integration of the export manufacturing industry and the recovery of overseas demand; < /p >

< p > export manufacturing enterprises are likely to bottom up slowly: the slow rise of demand in the United States < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economic recovery < /a > and the reduction in capacity after 2 years of deep integration of industries. Besides, domestic consumption can still be unsatisfactory, but the rate of decline will undoubtedly be less than 12 years. The export efficiency of these export manufacturing enterprises is improved. It is estimated that 13 years of textile and clothing exports are still similar to 12 years, with little fluctuation.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile > /a > clothing brand retail enterprises may hit the bottom in the first half of next year: when consumption slows down, the initial stage is the increase in stocks and the deterioration of financial indicators (worsening quarterly from this year's quarterly report). Then, it closes the store to reduce the supply and adjust the structure to survive the crisis.

We expect that in the first half of next 3-6 months, the number of stores will be significantly higher than that of previous years. The bottom of the entire textile and garment retail sector will probably come. In the medium and long term, brand businesses need to change their business models, enhance their characteristics and emphasize their internal lives.

From a single enterprise, it will take a long time to repair the damaged balance sheet in the future.

So the recovery after bottoming is long and slow.

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< p > chemical fiber plate or stage opportunities: chemical fiber industry has been losing money for 2 consecutive years, and has strong price rebound power.

We believe that there will be a rebound in the traditional price rebound next year, that is, the Spring Festival and the August before the traditional peak season.

However, due to no obvious improvement in supply and demand, the price rebounding is limited and suitable for phase intervention.

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< p > < strong > risk warning < /strong > < /p >

< p > we judge the bottom of the industry next year, but there is a long and low risk of bottom and recovery, making manufacturing and retail textile companies lingering at the bottom for a long time, thereby affecting investor confidence.

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< p > from the perspective of investors, domestic investors do not have the opportunity to experience the process of brand decline and stock price collapse (such as sportswear, fortune global, China trend, etc.), like Hongkong and European and American investors, and the domestic market is dominated by investment products. Investors are accustomed to investing in investment products from the top down thinking. They are too optimistic about the opportunities brought by future consumption driven economy to individual enterprises, which will make the valuation of domestic textile and garment retail for a long time difficult to stabilize.

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< p > textile and garment retail enterprises will have the possibility of repairing the balance sheet by sacrificial profit and loss statement next year, so that their performance is lower than expected.

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