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When Investing In Textile And Clothing, We Should Choose Stocks With Good Growth Potential.

2012/12/16 19:52:00 27

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< a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile > /a > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing > < > > less than Shen Wan Zhi. As of November 9th, the relative profit of the plate is at the end of which the relative profit of textile manufacturing is relatively low, and the relative income of garment home textile is relatively low.

Textile and garment exports increased by 2% over the first half of 1-10, slightly better than the first half of the year. However, due to the continued weakness in external demand, it is difficult to revive exports in the short term, domestic sales are also sluggish, and companies generally have low price increases, mostly through discount sales promotion.

expected sales in the second half of this year have improved in the first half of the year, and the pressure on channel inventory is expected to gradually ease. However, as the price hike is still blocked and the expansion is slowing down, it is difficult for the industry to reverse obviously, and the inflection point still needs to wait.

as of November 9, 2012, the income of textile and clothing sector was -10.2% compared with that of Shen Wan A.

The absolute income of textile manufacturing sector is -6.4%, relative income is -2.5%. The absolute income of garment home textile plate is -20.2%, relative income -16.2% is the last place in shwan classification industry.

Horizontal comparison, this year's textile and clothing performance is weaker than Shen Wan A, and is in the downstream of all level industries.

the relative valuation of textile manufacturing sector is below the average: in 2012, the relative value was 0.47 times, the absolute value was 6.87 times; in 2013, the relative value was 0.47 times, and the absolute value was 5.47 times.

The relative valuation of clothing textile plates is near the average: in 2012, the relative value was 0.9 times, the absolute value was 13.31 times; in 2013, the relative value was 0.94 times, and the absolute value was 10.95 times.

2012, external demand continued to be sluggish. It is expected that the industry will not be able to see the turning point in short term. In 1-10, textile and garment exports increased by 2% year-on-year.

In the 1-10 month of 2012, textile exports grew by 1% year-on-year, improving in the second half of the year, but still down 0.2% in the third quarter. In 2012, clothing exports increased by 2.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was slightly better than that of textiles.

1-10 in 2012, the total retail sales of consumer goods in textile and garment industry increased by 17.9%.

In 2012, sales of garment retail terminals were relatively low, and the growth rate slowed down compared with the same period last year.

In 2012 1-10, the growth rate of textile and garment enterprises above the limit was 17.9%, slightly better than the 16.9% growth rate in the first half of the year.

Since P 2000, China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "target=" _blank "brand clothing" /a "has been rapidly rising with the help of the franchise mode. However, too many channel levels and excessive number of stores have led to the weakening of channel control and the decline of asset turnover rate. In order to maintain a reasonable rate of return, enterprises rely on increasing prices to raise net profit margins to make up for them.

In recent years, the pparency of parity and the accessibility of parity products have accelerated the rise of online shopping. At the same time, along with the poor macro-economic growth in 2011, the growth of residents' disposable income has slowed down, and consumers' clothing purchases have become more cautious. The rising price strategy of the industry has led to higher and higher prices of garment prices.

domestic sales mode with franchising mainly leads to too long supply chain.

The increase in the number of shops has led to a gradual decline in the management and control of enterprises and a decline in asset turnover. In the expansion of market share, we have to rely on raising prices to raise net profit margins to make up for it.

in recent years, the channel operation cost of enterprises has been increasing.

In particular, the rent of shops in the first and second tier cities rose gradually, while the wages of workers increased significantly. In 2011, the wages of urban wholesale and retail workers rose from 1783 yuan in 2010 to 2595 yuan, up 48% over the same period last year.

profit margins of franchisees are decreasing year by year, and extensive expansion strategy is facing resistance.

On the one hand, in the face of high operating costs, the profit margins of enterprises are squeezed, and the cost pressure can only be passed on to consumers through product pricing.

On the other hand, under the backdrop of the economic situation, the slowdown in the growth of the disposable income of consumers has led to a decline in the purchasing power of clothing. The low demand for terminals has forced enterprises to continuously increase the intensity of discount sales to promote sales, and the industry as a whole has been hindered by the price hike.

investors need to be vigilant against the deterioration of financial statements brought about by excessive channel expansion, which is manifested in the increase of accounts receivable, the increase of prepaid accounts, the worsening of operating cash flow, the accumulation of direct and franchisees, and the fact that companies have to deal with off-season stocks through discount sales, resulting in a decrease in gross margin and a rise in rate of fees, resulting in a decline in net profit margin.

we believe that in the final analysis, the core problem lies in the expansion of the expansion of horse race and enclosure in the early stage of the development of the industry, which leads to too many channels and too loose control. In the future, with the increasing competition, the flat pformation of the channel is the main theme of the development of the industry.

the growth rate of revenue and net profit continued to slow down.

The Q3 revenue of key companies increased by 3% over the same quarter, net profit fell by 17% compared to the same period last year, and the income in the first three quarters increased by 6%, and net profit fell 13% over the same period.

Among them, the income of textile manufacturing enterprises decreased by 2% compared with the same period last year, and net profit decreased by 57% compared with the same period last year. The income of apparel textile enterprises increased by 8% and net profit increased by 4%.

Terminal weakness, corporate earnings worse than the newspaper.

The company increased credit support from the franchisee, resulting in an increase in accounts receivable. The increase in inventory over the past quarter led to an increase in stock and the deterioration of business cash flow.

It is expected that the recovery pressure will be greater in the short term and the quality of earnings will still need to wait.

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clothing home textile industry: (1) at present, the trend of terminal consumption warming has not been established. The growth rate of sub industry 2013 spring and summer orders will be much lower than expected. We judge that the overall growth rate of the industry will continue to slow down in the first half of next year.

(2) at the same time, to digest the large amount of inventory generated during the spring and summer of 2012, the pressure of gross profit margin is expected to increase in the first half of next year.

(3) the expenditure budget for next year will be prudent, but as most companies are still expanding in 2012, the total cost will continue to rise as the rigid cost amortize increases. If the income growth rate slows down, the cost rate will still not be effectively controlled.

combined with many factors, we judge: in the first half of the year, the net profit growth rate of enterprises will continue to slow down and the industry boom will be difficult to improve.

At present, brand clothing corresponds to an average valuation of 19 times in 2012. Among them, the outdoor and daily chemical industry has a relatively high valuation, about 32 times; the average value of men's clothing is about 15 times; the value of home textiles is about 18 times; the value of casual wear is about 18 times.

although the industry inflection point still needs to wait, the overall sales in the fourth quarter of last year have slowed down, and the cardinal effect is expected to be gradually reflected in the fourth quarter of this year.

After nearly six months of plate depth adjustment, the current low industry valuation has fully reflected the cautious expectation for next year, and the margin of industrial safety has been gradually strengthened.

strong > textile and clothing: timing, layout, growth, good stock recommendation 8 shares

up to the beginning of the year, the textile and garment sector has dropped by 30.3%.

Under the background of terminal consumption downturn, the market is worried about the high inventory of enterprises and limited ability to raise prices in the future, which is the main reason why the plate trend is weaker than the market.

the results of the first three quarters of the textile and garment sector were significantly divided, men's clothing was more robust, household textiles improved by quarter, while leisure a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > dress "/a" still faces greater pressure.

In the first three quarters of the slowdown in terminal consumption, brand clothing in the first three quarters of the division of performance is obvious, with higher growth and excellent management capabilities of the company performed better.

Brand men's wear and men's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > shoes < /a > relatively stable performance (the first three quarters of revenue growth was 29.3%, 16.3% and 14.7%, net profit growth was 32.5%, 42.2% and 25.1%), brand home textile income rebounded quarterly (6%, 12.9%, 21.3%) in the first three quarters, casual dress is still facing greater competition pressure.

clothing sales increased by 14.21% in October, and the growth trend of terminal sales continued to be expected under the combined effect of low base and the lag of the Spring Festival.

In the first three quarters of 2012, the total retail sales of the major retail enterprises in China increased by 11.2%, representing a 10.8 percentage point lower than that in the same period in 2011, and the volume of retail sales increased by 1.7% over the same period last year, which is 5.06 percentage points lower than that in the same period in 2011.

In the same period of 2011, the combined retail sales volume increased by 14.21% over the same period in October. The number of retail sales increased by 2.38% over the past month.

Due to the low base of the four seasons in 2011 and the lagging of the Spring Festival in 2013, the sales period was helped to lengthen the sales period of autumn winter wear. The four quarter 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 were expected to continue.

The time for industrial investment may be in the mid 2013, and the best stocks with high growth and management capabilities are preferred.

at present, the key brand clothing companies of A shares correspond to the average PE of A PE12.86 times less than 14.68 times of H-shares.

The promotion of valuation depends on the improvement of terminal sales and the improvement of enterprise inventory data.

Due to the lower base level in the fourth quarter of 2011, and the lag of the Spring Festival in 2013 will help to prolong the sales period of autumn and winter wear, the trend of terminal sales growth in the four quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013 is expected to continue.

Taking into account the lagging nature of business performance relative to the industry boom, industry a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > investment < /a > opportunities may appear in the middle of 2013.

suggest that we should choose the Pathfinder who has good growth and layout, the long road stock, the card slave Road, the search and special management and the relatively excellent seven wolves, AOKANG international, nine Mu Wang and fuanna.