Textile Upstream Raw Materials Enterprises Should Speed Up Digestion Of Excess Capacity

The controversial policy of dumping and storage has finally come to an end in January 11th. cotton The trading market and China Cotton Reserve Management Corporation jointly issued the notice on organizing the sale of national reserve cotton. Since January 14, 2013, the China cotton reserve management company has put in reserve cotton through the auction sale system of the national cotton trading market. The sale price of reserve cotton is 19000 yuan / ton.

What will happen to the cotton market pattern after the implementation of this policy? Polyester, viscose and others. Spin How will the raw materials fluctuate?

As the saying goes, "taking history as mirror, learning from the past and knowing the present". Reviewing and summarizing the domestic textile raw material market in 2012, "inventory" is no doubt a hot word for the industry. From the peak season of February and March after the Spring Festival to the "golden nine silver ten" growth trend, whether cotton, polyester or viscose and other related products have experienced unprecedented inventory pressure, and become a collective adjustment of the industry fuse.

The reason is downstream textile. clothing The export situation determines the development trend of textile raw materials. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US $230 billion 882 million in 1~11 months in 2012, an increase of US $4 billion 672 million over the same period last year, an increase of 2.07% over the same period last year, a decrease of 19.15 percentage points from the 21.2% growth rate in the same period last year.

But the problem is not only weak demand, but also poor manufacturers. In 2010, the "boundless scenery" of the chemical fiber industry has brought endless regrets and reverie to people. Whether they are private enterprises, state-owned enterprises or foreign-funded enterprises, everyone is trying to squeeze in, eager to replicate the splendor of 2010. According to relevant statistics, in 2012 1~11, the cumulative output of chemical fibers in China was 34 million 824 thousand tons, up 11.7% from the same period last year. The total output of synthetic fibers and synthetic fibers was 3 million 436 thousand tons and 31 million 338 thousand tons respectively, representing an increase of 34.3% and 9.7% respectively over the same period last year.

What worries us is that the capacity of main synthetic fiber products including polyester, nylon and spandex will continue to expand in 2013. Taking polyester staple as an example, the total capacity of the domestic built and proposed projects will reach 900 thousand tons next year. By the end of 2013, the capacity of the melt direct spinning PET staple will reach the level of 6 million 870 thousand tons.

You may also see a 90% operating rate in 2011, and the overall operating rate in 2012 has generally dropped below the 80% line, and has been dropping below 50% at a lower level. This time, overcapacity is the wolf.

At the same time, the "cold winter" of China's textile and clothing exports has not ended. The golden age of exports has passed. The high unemployment rate of the EU will lead to a sluggish demand growth, while the uncertain factors of the main export markets such as the United States and Japan are also more.

Under the background of overcapacity in the industry, chemical fiber manufacturers will have to find new ways to digest excess spare parts, low price grab share, adjust product mix, and compete through market competition to win the fittest. Either way, it will be a baptism. The malpractice brought by capacity expansion will launch a new round of fighting in the new market environment.

Decline: -6.16% decline champion

Viscose staple fiber

Production and marketing rate is lower than operating rate.

Price promotions are still on sale.

[market review]

In the four quarter of 2012, the market price of viscose staple fiber in China showed a downward trend overall, but there was a rally at the end of the year. Since mid December 2012, the market of viscose staple fiber has bottomed out. The price of mid end goods has been raised to more than 13800 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end goods has been raised to 14200~14300 yuan / ton. As of December 31, 2012, the mainstream trading price of the middle end was followed up to 13600~13800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream trading price of high-end goods was 14000~14100 yuan / ton.

[outlook]

Taking a look at the start and production and sale data of viscose staple fiber industry in 1~12 2012, the sales and sales rate in the remaining months is much lower than the operating rate in addition to the production and sales rate in January. The imbalance between supply and demand has brought about a rare buyer's market. Chemical fiber factories are forced to sell prices to stimulate the volume of goods. But when prices fall, demand is mostly "buying up but not buying down". The price reduction has not caused an immediate rise in volume.

Although the supply and demand between the market has been difficult to balance, the overall capacity of the industry is still expanding. In 2013, some new capacity in China will be put into the market, with 200 thousand tons of profits, 100 thousand tons of Chengdu Huaming, 100 thousand tons of Shandong Yami, and 100 thousand tons of Jiangsu Xiangsheng.

At present, the industry is generally not optimistic about the textile and garment export situation in 2013. Supply seems to have become a foregone conclusion, which has a negative effect on the overall trend of the future market, but it is not a declining trend. It also needs to pay close attention to the specific operation of chemical fiber manufacturers and the guidelines of the peripheral policy and cotton news.

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　 Decrease: -1.08% ~ -2.26%

Acrylic fibres

The supply pattern has changed little.

Face adjustment after inflation

[market review]

After experiencing a sharp rise and fall in the first two quarters of 2012 and stepped up in the three quarter, the acrylic fiber market in the fourth quarter showed a narrow oscillation pattern. As of December 31, 2012, the mainstream price of 1.5D cotton type staple fiber was 16800~17800 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D medium and short staple fiber was 16700~17800 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D tow was 16800~18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 3D top was 17800~19000 yuan / ton.

　　 [outlook]

In terms of raw materials, the new 130 thousand year old acrylonitrile plant of Anqing Petrochemical Company will be put into operation in mid January 2013. However, considering the instabilities during the commissioning period, and the restart time of the No. 4 unit of Jilin Petrochemical Company, the pressure of increasing supply will not be obvious. On the other hand, the port stock is not high at present, and the latter is replenishment or increase, but no excess pressure has yet been formed.

In terms of supply, at present, Shanghai petrochemical, Anqing petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing petrochemical and other acrylic fiber plant started normal operation, Fushun petrochemical device restart time is not yet determined, Jilin Qifeng and Jilin acrylic fiber plant running load maintained at 70% to 80%. Due to low production profits, acrylic producers will continue to regulate load to ensure that the overall inventory is kept within safe limits.

In terms of demand, the overall demand is still warm, and the downstream acrylic yarn orders are low, production and sales are flat, and buyers' intentions have not yet been significantly improved. Before the Spring Festival, there is demand for stocking before the factory or before saving. But as the downstream factories gradually take off, it is expected that the buying atmosphere will gradually fade after mid 1.

On the whole, after the sharp rise in December, acrylonitrile and raw materials are facing pressure of adjustment, but the expected scope is limited. The overall supply pattern of acrylonitrile has not changed much, but the industry will continue to implement the limited production and price protection measures in the situation of no obvious increase in demand in the downstream market. A comprehensive analysis shows that the market will maintain a narrow oscillation situation when the favorable factors are intertwined.

Decrease: -1.20% ~ -2.18%

nylon

Higher costs and higher prices

Without demand support, it is difficult to sustain.

[market review]

In the four quarter of 2012, the nylon filament market showed a narrow market overall. As of December 31, 2012, the nylon POY side, the high-end factory, half light 86 points special /24F quoted price in 25000 yuan / ton, the middle end factory quoted price in 23500~24000 yuan / ton, some low end in 22000 yuan / ton; in the nylon DTY aspect, the half light 70D/24F middle and low end goods source is in 25800 yuan / ton, the small bomb part is in 24000 yuan / ton; the nylon FDY aspect, the spray weaving uses the half light 70D/24F mainstream quotation in 25000~26000 yuan / ton, actually clinch a deal about 24300~25000 yuan / ton.

　 [outlook]

At present, there are two different voices on the market. "Watching the air force" and "watching many armies" are playing chess. Raw caprolactam trend has become the focus of the two armies fighting.

Since late December 2012, the purchasing activities of nylon factories have continued to increase, the caprolactam factory has been running smoothly, manufacturers have increased the factory offer, the purchasing cost of merchants and downstream factories has been rising, and the market transaction price has been forced to rise, and the mainstream talks have climbed to the level of 17300~17600 yuan / ton. The US dollar market is also strong, and the effective negotiation price is concentrated at US $2300~2330 / ton, which is echoing and supporting each other in the RMB market.

But in the face of ample domestic supply and relatively high volume of incoming cargo, market resistance is still relatively large. In recent years, the production of caprolactam has already started. The capacity of the manufacturers has been increasing, and the production of caprolactam has been continuously increasing. At present, the domestic caprolactam production capacity has expanded from 585 thousand tons per year in 2011 to 1 million 210 thousand tons / year in 2012, and in 2013, 700 thousand tons / year of new capacity will be put into operation.

To say the least, even if the market price of the nylon market is going up and the volume of transactions has increased, there is no obvious improvement in terminal consumption. Downstream purchases are nothing more than transferring goods from one warehouse to another. All unnecessary demand as the basis for the rise is "paper tiger", although short-term procurement can affect the price rise, but it will not drive the overall price high.

Cotton increase: -2.34% ~ 2.84% or champion

External cotton gain: -0.36% to 6.36%

cotton

The current price spreads gradually narrowed.

The internal and external spreads remain high.

[market review]

In the four quarter of 2012, there was a divergence in the domestic cotton spot market trend. After the fall of Zheng cotton, it shifted to a narrow oscillation pattern, while the 328 grade cotton showed a trend of oscillating upward, resulting in a gradual contraction of the two varieties with a price difference of 1000 yuan to less than 100 yuan. As of December 31, 2012, the CC-Index328 price index was 19201 yuan / ton, the 1305 contract of zhengmian main contract was 18950 yuan / ton, and the price was upside down 251 yuan / ton.

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In the four quarter of 2012, the difference between domestic cotton and international cotton continued to expand, and remained at an oscillation range of 4000 yuan / ton to 6000 yuan / ton. As of December 31, 2012, China's cotton price index was 328 yuan 19201 yuan / ton, import cotton price index M grade cotton 1% tariff is 13719 yuan / ton, the price difference between outer cotton and inner cotton is 5482 yuan / ton. The domestic and foreign cotton prices are seriously upside down. Compared with the emerging market countries such as India, Pakistan and Vietnam, the larger cost of cotton consumption has seriously weakened the competitiveness of China's cotton textile enterprises in the international market.

[outlook]

Since last year, the main reason for supporting cotton prices is state purchasing and storage. In 2011, China collected 3 million 130 thousand tons of cotton, and continued to open and store it in 2012. As of January 6, 2013, the total amount of storage and storage was 5 million 290 thousand tons.

The cotton market in 2013/2014 will continue to be affected by national policies. The various versions and rumors of throwing and storing have become a thing of the past. Since January 14, 2013, the state has officially launched the auction of cotton throwing and storing. The starting price of grade 3 cotton is 19000 yuan / ton, at least 3 million tons. However, whether the national cotton reserves will be bundled with the sliding tariff import quotas at a ratio of 3 to 1 is still uncertain. If this matching becomes a reality, the weighted average cost is less than 18 thousand yuan / ton, plus other outgoing expenses, the average cost is not more than 18200 yuan / ton.

At the same time, the supply and demand situation will also play a decisive role.

From the supply side, since 2010/2011, due to increased production and weaker demand, global cotton supply exceeds demand and inventories are increasing. In China, the shrinkage of demand is very serious, and the stock of state reserves has increased significantly, which has caused great pressure on the domestic cotton market. ICAC and USDA, the two authoritative bodies, have cut down the output of the new year in the balance of supply and demand, while increasing consumption. However, the overall inventory is still increasing, and the inventory consumption ratio is in a very high position.

From the demand side, the export situation of China's textile and clothing in the new year will continue to face difficulties such as weak external demand, obvious transfer of orders and intensified foreign trade protectionism. However, as the US continues to slow down the recovery process and the European debt crisis has corresponding emergency mechanism, there will be some slow recovery opportunities in the future market.

To sum up, in view of the complex and delicate situation of the whole situation and the interlacing of short and short factors, it is expected that the trend of cotton market in 2013 will be dominated by oscillation.

Increase: 0.79% to 4.44%

Polyester filament

Short term to meet the rising opportunity

Resistance psychological resistance

　　 [market review]

In the last quarter of 2012, the polyester filament market went up first and came out of an irregular "V" shape. The first stage: from October to mid November, in the crevice of low demand and high inventory, the polyester filament Market flew down. Take FDY50D/24F as an example. In the early October, the mainstream price was 12900~13200 yuan / ton, while in the middle of November, the mainstream price fell to 11900~12200 yuan / ton. The second stage: from the end of November to the end of December, the polyester filament market successfully interpreted "flip over". On the one hand, it benefited from the cost promotion of PTA and MEG of polyester raw materials. On the other hand, the cold winter extreme weather caused flannel, coral fleece and other thermal fabrics to support the market.

　 [outlook]

From a macro perspective, in the second half of 2012, various economic indicators have already indicated that the domestic economy is developing well. As a leading indicator of the macro-economy, PMI rose for the three consecutive month, rising to 50.6% at 7 months in November. This shows that the steady trend of economic operation is further consolidated, showing a basic trend of moderate recovery.

From the cost side, the PTA futures of Zheng Shang have the momentum of Chang'e rush to the moon, and the spot price of East China's PTA has also risen, returning to the top of the 9000 point is just around the corner. PTA's strength is undoubtedly inject confidence into MEG, and the maintenance of Saudi Kayan and YANSAB glycol devices has also become a gimmick for businesses to take the opportunity to hype. At present, the price of MEG has succeeded in catching up with PTA, and the slowdown has not yet been seen.

From the demand side, since the middle and last 12 months of last year, the operation load of downstream water jet, circular knitting machine and warp knitting has been decreasing, and the shutdowns and shutdowns have gradually increased. On the one hand, the number of foreign trade orders has been decreasing sharply as the Christmas day effect has passed. On the other hand, from the domestic market, with the approaching of the end of the year of the dragon, there is not enough time to make the turnover cycle.

To sum up, with the support and promotion of high cost, the polyester filament market will continue to pull up. However, as prices become higher and higher, the downstream manufacturers will have a strong psychological resistance to high raw materials, which is not enough to form a driving force for continuous market growth.

　 Increase: 1.81%

Polyester staple fiber

The pace of capacity expansion will not change.

Continue to start work down

[market review]

In the tug of war of cost pressure and demand performance, the domestic polyester staple market in the fourth quarter of 2012 increased and fell, but the overall upward trend was seen. As of December 31, 2012, the mainstream quotation of polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm market was 11200~11300 yuan / ton cash out, compared with the market level in the three quarter of 2012, a slight increase of 1.81%, a slight decline of 2.17% over the same period last year.

[outlook]

By the end of 2012, the domestic staple fiber staple factory was mostly stored in 3~5 days, and the stock of individual factories was higher in a week or so. After nearly a year's "negative profit" pattern, the polyester staple factory is eager to find the lost profits. The manufacturers need to face the pressure of high inventory. Now when the stock falls to the safe range, the manufacturers will pay more attention to how to turn the losses.

However, it is worth noting that low inventory does not mean a strong demand, but to a large extent, it is a low turnover rate. In terms of the whole polyester industry chain, since the start load of polyester filament is relatively stable since last year, the load of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips fluctuated and the peak valley fluctuated frequently. According to incomplete statistics, the total production of polyester staple fiber in China last year was 3 million 979 thousand and 800 tons, a decrease of 167 thousand and 400 tons over the same period last year, the only negative growth in nearly ten years.

In 2013, the capacity of domestic polyester staple fiber will be increased by 900 thousand tons in 2013, including 250 thousand tons in Fujian, 200 thousand tons in Fujian, 200 thousand tons in Xiang Lu, 150 thousand tons in Shandong and 100 thousand tons in Yizheng chemical fiber. At the same time of capacity expansion, if demand is not growing synchronously, or will continue to push down the operating rate of the industry, on the one hand, enterprises will be faced with profit losses caused by cost pressures, on the other hand, they will also suffer from the waste of resources caused by idle devices.

Increase: 0.88% to 1.11%

　 spandex

A few ups and down ended.

The probability of smooth transition is large.

[market review]

Since 2012, the market of spandex has been lingering at low level, especially the conventional varieties such as 40D, whose price has fluctuated for 43000~45000 yuan / ton for a long time. At the same time, the continuous negative profit of 40D regular products has really worried the industry. During the year, the Spandex Industry Association held a number of meetings to make frequent plans to reverse losses in the industry or reduce production or price, or jointly raise prices or take the opportunity to copy inflation. Nevertheless, because of the continuing weakness of terminal sales, downstream weaving mills are very resistant to the price increases, resulting in the transaction price being difficult to execute at the agreed price. As a result, several ups and turns ended with the same result.

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　　 [outlook]

From the cost side, the current PTMEG price weakness is consolidated between 26000~28000 yuan / ton. Upstream raw materials BDO market after a sharp decline, continued consolidation, resulting in PTMEG market cost support strength significantly lower, while the terminal textile and clothing decline signs are increasingly obvious, coupled with the economic environment orientation is not clear, exacerbating the market for the future business cautious wait-and-see attitude, the risk of the back market price callback is bigger.

From the demand side, due to the lack of follow up orders in the terminal textile industry, many weaving factories choose to reduce production or stop. The overall start-up rate of the circular machine area has dropped to 4~5 near the level, and the overall boot rate of the yarn area has dropped to about 6 percent, and the overall boot rate of warp knitting and lace areas has dropped to about 7. As the operation load of the downstream weaving section is decreasing gradually, and the expected market in the future is generally poor or worse, the overall trading atmosphere and actual purchase volume will decline.

From the point of view of related products, since December last year, the two largest varieties of synthetic fiber polyester, polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, have continued to maintain a rebound trend, which has brought some optimism to the spandex market. The stability of other fiber viscose and nylon market has also made the market confidence of acrylic fiber slightly increased, and some manufacturers' orders and stock production intentions have increased slightly.

Overall, the loss that the spandex industry can bear is over. However, due to the lack of substantial demand support, the market is still difficult to effectively increase the price of products. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a smooth transition in the later stage will be greater. Even if the demand side is further weakened, the spandex industry may also take measures to reduce production and protect prices. market Prices went further down.