The Impact And Impact Of The Sharp Depreciation Of The Yen On The International And Chinese Market

When the yuan appreciated, Japanese funds in early years went back to the Japanese market. When the a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > Japanese yen depreciated < /a >, the Japanese yen as the main spread trading may prevail, and Japanese funds would flow to the global markets, < /p > P.

< p > - Yi Xianrong < /p >.

< p > < strong > Yi Xianrong, researcher of the Institute of finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, < /strong > < /p >

After the Abe Shinzo administration took office, its economic goal was to get rid of the "20 years" dilemma of the Japanese economy, namely, to go out of the vicious cycle of deflation in the first 20 years, so as to enable the Japanese economy to embark on a healthy growth path of moderate growth and moderate inflation. P

Therefore, the Andouble administration started from the major reforms in finance, finance and industrial policies, with a view to achieving the recovery of Japan's economy.

In order to show the determination to fight deflation, the Andouble administration put forward the policy of "unlimited quantitative easing" in January 22, 2013, with inflation rate of 2% as the condition for the implementation of the policy.

Andouble quickly appointed Kuroda Higashihiko as governor of the Bank of Japan to ensure that its monetary policy was fully implemented.

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< p > it can be said that Japan's "quantitative and qualitative easing" of the "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp "monetary policy" /a "announced and fully implemented, the biggest impact on the market should be the yen's comprehensive depreciation.

In April 9th, the yen fell to over 1 yen to 99 yen, the lowest since May 2009.

Compared with 1 yen against 78 yen in 2012, the US dollar has appreciated by more than 20% against the yen, and the yen's decline is unlikely to stop in the short term.

Some analysts believe that every dollar to 100 yen, 101 yen, 102 yen and 111 yen, respectively, are the Japanese yen continued to decline in a number of resistance.

But the author thinks that this is only historical data, and the actual situation is rather uncertain.

Because, in recent years, the yen exchange rate has changed strongly over the past 5 years, and there has been a sustained and rapid decline.

This is not only because the market's doubts about the Bank of Japan's determination to resist deflation have been eliminated, but as long as Kuroda Higashihiko vigorously implements the radical monetary policy of "quantitative and qualitative easing", the depreciation of the yen will continue.

As for the important psychological barrier per dollar to the yen, it depends on what the Japanese central bank's inflation target is.

Therefore, the start of Andouble economics may be the biggest impact on the world and China market, where is the continued devaluation of the yen and the psychological barrier of this devaluation.

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< p > because the real significance of the depreciation of the yen is not the noisy currency war in the early days.

Imagine that exchange rate as a price relationship, the major change in its exchange rate must be a major adjustment in interest relations.

The exchange rate as a major interest relationship adjustment between countries, through different conspiracies win or lose completely is impossible.

It always has advantages and disadvantages, and its cost and income calculation is often rather uncertain.

Especially in the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar, it is even more difficult to calculate this interest relationship by using credit money as the anchor for this exchange rate change.

Therefore, the exchange rate policy adopted by every modern country is often based on national interests.

Under such circumstances, the adjustment of a country's exchange rate policy does not mean that other countries will move with the wind.

Therefore, I pointed out earlier that we should not use the conspiracy theory to see the depreciation of the Japanese yen and the international currency war will not happen.

Similarly, the appreciation or devaluation of the exchange rate is also mutually beneficial to the trade relations of a country.

In fact, the practical significance of the depreciation of the yen is not to focus on adjusting the interests between countries. This is only a kind of influence and result. More importantly, the Central Bank of Japan adjusts the domestic economic interests through the depreciation of the Japanese yen to stimulate the inflation expectations of Japanese nationals, so as to expand the domestic demand of Japan and get rid of the vicious circle of deflation.

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< p > at present, no matter how complicated the situation is in the current "a href=" http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_p.asp "Japanese economy < /a >, no matter whether the current Japanese economic problem is cyclical or structural, it is certain that the most important reason for Japan's economic loss for 20 years is the rapid appreciation of the yen.

The rapid appreciation of the yen has not only weakened the international competitiveness of Japanese enterprises, but also led to a full-blown decline in Japan's national strength (because Japan's economic growth in 1950 was largely related to the export-oriented economy), and led to a large amount of Japanese capital flowing back to the world quickly back to China in the early -1980 years.

These funds and wealth are concentrated in the hands of a small number of enterprises and minorities.

It can be said that the personal wealth of 9 trillion dollars held by a few people has neither the desire to expand investment nor the power to increase personal consumption (because these funds are mostly held by senior citizens, and the yen has appreciated more than 4 times against the US dollar in more than 20 years.

For Japan, where large quantities of goods depend on imports, the proportion of these elderly consumers is becoming smaller and smaller. As long as the Japanese government bonds holding very low interest rates can share the fruits of the rapid appreciation of the yen.

It can be said that if such a price mechanism is not broken by radical policies and a major adjustment to this pattern of interests is made, it is impossible for the Japanese economy to get rid of the dilemma of 20 years.

The author has pointed out many times that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen will not necessarily enable the Japanese economy to embark on the road of recovery, or let the Japanese economy get rid of the plight of a vicious cycle of deflation for a long time. But if the yen does not depreciate substantially, its economy will be out of the current predicament.

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< p > we can say that Kuroda Higashihiko's radical "quantitative and qualitative easing" monetary policy is not only to release a lot of liquidity to the market, but also to break through the existing yen exchange rate mechanism and let the yen devalue rapidly.

Because the devaluation of the Japanese yen is not only to break the solidified interest pattern through the market price mechanism, adjust the existing interest relations, eliminate the obstacles that the powerful vested interest groups may set up in the deep reform, reduce the political deadlock that may result from the interest sharing in the reform process, change and adjust the enterprises and investment expectations, but also improve the international competitiveness of Japanese enterprises and increase the investment demand of Japanese enterprises.

We should see that in the past twenty years, Japan's economic reform has never stopped, but every economic reform will trigger vested interest groups with great resistance.

More than 5 years ago, the former Prime Minister Koizumi, the prime minister, pushed the reform to the end.

The Andouble administration's exchange rate reform is the most important measure to break the resistance of the existing vested interests.

But this move, especially when Japan's aggressive quantitative easing monetary policy has led to the rapid devaluation of the yen, will have a significant impact and impact on the international market and China.

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< p > we should see that although Japan's economy has been lost for 20 years, Japan's pattern as a third economic power has not changed.

Qualitatively, more than 100000000 of Japan's population holds 9 trillion US dollars in financial assets, while China's 14 population is only about 7 trillion dollars. Japan's national consumption power is more than 15 times that of China's per capita, and Japan's economic strength far exceeds that of China.

Therefore, as a price mechanism, the major adjustment of the exchange rate or the depreciation of the Japanese yen will not only affect the relationship between Japanese national interests and market expectations, but also affect the flow of funds in the global market.

When the yuan appreciated, Japanese funds went back to the Japanese market in the early years. When the yuan depreciated, Japanese yen as the main interest spread could prevail, and Japanese funds would flow to the global markets.

And where these funds flow, the impact on these markets will be enormous.

But where the money will flow is uncertain.

We must pay close attention to this.

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Moreover, the sharp depreciation of the yen will also impact the commodity prices in the international market (although the impact is less than the impact of the change in the US dollar), leading to global commodity price shocks. P

At this point, the change of commodity prices in the international market will soon be pmitted to the Chinese market.

This effect not only lies in the adjustment of the price of international trade relations, but also easily leads to huge exchange rate risk.

For example, Japan's agricultural products (5.62,0.00,0.00%) are mainly imported from China. The depreciation of the Japanese yen requires not only the re pricing of China's exports of agricultural products by Chinese traders, but also the exchange rate risk of Chinese traders.

The same is true of Japanese exports.

The rapid devaluation of yen in the short term will bring great risks to Sino Japanese trade.

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Therefore, we must see that the devaluation of the Japanese yen is a big trend on the one hand, and we can not change it. On the other hand, we must pay attention to the impact and impact brought by the devaluation of the yen to the international and Chinese market. P

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