The Canton Fair Is No Longer In Decline, But Textile And Apparel Share The Ceiling.

< p > < strong > the momentum of the three decline of the Canton Fair has finally been checked.

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< p > official data released by the Canton fair show that the total turnover of the 113 Canton Fair was 35 billion 540 million US dollars, an increase of 8.8%, but compared with last year's spring fair, there was still a 1.4% decline.

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< p > Canton Fair is regarded as barometer and weathervane of China's foreign trade, which first reflects the situation of foreign trade exports in the next six months.

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Liu Jianjun, spokesman for the Canton Fair, at the closing news conference, characterized the turnover of the Canton Fair and the situation of the merchants to the meeting as a "stable and stable growth of P".

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Zhou Shijian, researcher of Sino US relations at Tsinghua University, reminded P that the current foreign trade situation needs to be cautiously optimistic. The external demand is weak, labor costs are rising and the pressure of RMB appreciation is still pressing on exporters.

According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the eurozone economy will fall 0.3% this year.

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< p > < strong > short and medium term orders, the main pattern remains unchanged < /strong > < /p >

< p > according to the official statistics of the Canton Fair, the number of overseas purchasers from the 113 Canton Fair reached 202766, an increase of 7.06%, a decrease of 3.83% over the same period last year.

This data is consistent with the trend of turnover data.

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< p > but the order structure did not improve significantly. Liu Jianjun said that short orders accounted for 48.6% in 3 months, 35.1% in 3-6 months, and 16.3% in 6 months.

"This reflects the impact of the financial crisis, and buyers are still cautious about placing orders. Domestic enterprises are worried about the price of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, and dare not take longer orders."

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< p > since the outbreak of the financial crisis, orders for the Canton Fair have been dominated by short and medium bills, and the proportion of short and medium bills has exceeded 90%.

This also directly causes China's monthly export data to fluctuate more frequently.

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In the traditional market, the EU and Japanese markets are still stable except for P.

Canton Fair statistics show that the Canton Fair has increased by 6.3%, 9.9% and 38% for the European Union, the United States and Japan respectively, down 4.9%, 0.5% and 12.6%, respectively.

Generally speaking, the year-on-year data of the Canton Fair are more observational, and the last autumn trade fair is the bottom of the turnover in the past two years.

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< p > the intuitive feeling of enterprises is consistent with the above statistics.

Lu Longsheng, general manager of Shanghai's Pegasus group, a clothing exporter, told reporters that the export volume of the company grew by about 5% in the first quarter, but it is expected that the volume of exports will decline in April as a result of the decline in the Japanese and European markets.

He said that the current US demand is relatively stable, and the growth of the company's exports is mainly from the contribution of emerging markets such as ASEAN. The annual export volume is expected to be basically the same as last year.

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< p > in fact, after the financial crisis, the dependence of Chinese commodities on traditional markets has dropped sharply.

The latest data from this newspaper show that in the first quarter of this year, the proportion of the three traditional markets of the European Union, the United States and Japan to China's exports has dropped to 37.4%, a sharp decline of 10.2 percentage points over the 47.6% share in 2007.

Among them, the EU market share decreased from 20.1% in 2007 to 14.9%, the US market share decreased from 19.1% to 15.6%, and the Japanese market dropped from 8.4% to 6.9%.

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< p > Zhou Shijian said that in recent years, the export diversification of Chinese exporters has been effective, but on the other hand, it has also confirmed the continued weakness of the traditional market.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that the financial crisis that broke out in 2008 will have a negative impact on the world economy until 2018.

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< p > < strong > textile and clothing encounter share ceiling < /strong > /p >

The textile and clothing of the third phase of the "P" Canton Fair, the four traditional markets in Europe, America and Hongkong account for about 60% of their exports.

First textile network analyst Wang Qianjin said that the traditional market has not fundamentally improved, textile and garment industry is also difficult to really improve, and the development of emerging markets is fruitful, but the small number of emerging markets is still difficult to make up for the decline of traditional markets such as Europe, America and Japan.

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In the first quarter of this year, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 57 billion 890 million US dollars to 15.7%, but in March, exports of textile and clothing decreased by 11%. P

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< p > Lu Longsheng and Wang Qian have reminded that the export volume of textile and clothing will continue to decline in April.

They said the data in the first quarter fluctuated too much and the two quarter trade data would be closer to the true level of the market.

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< p > Wang Qianjin said, the current enterprise's hand orders have already appeared polarization, big enterprises can hold orders for 3-6 months, but small and medium-sized enterprises have fewer orders in hand for more than 3 months.

The price of clothing is expected to rise by around 5% this year, which will basically cover the rise of costs for large enterprises.

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< p > in fact, in recent years, the loss of middle and low end orders of Chinese textile and clothing is serious, and it can be seen from the change of the market share of Chinese clothing.

Wang Qianjin said that the share of Chinese clothing in the European and American traditional Japanese market is declining at a rate of one percentage point a year, of which Japan's market share has dropped from 80% before the financial crisis to 75%.

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< p > the chairman of Guangdong textile import and export Limited by Share Ltd said that after several years of rising raw material prices and rising labor costs, almost all buyers were asking for the pfer of production. The company also suggested that the factories it cooperate with would go to Bangladesh and Kampuchea to open factories.

"Now the increase is partly due to contributions from overseas factories."

At present, a car sewn worker in Bangladesh has a monthly salary of 48 dollars, equivalent to about 300 yuan, while China's monthly salary of this type of work is 2500-3000 yuan.

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< p > the Ministry of Commerce has put forward "stabilizing foreign trade growth and improving the share of Chinese commodities in world trade" at the national business working conference. However, Wang said that textile and apparel had already suffered a share of the ceiling, although the share in the international market would not be declining, but it could hardly be improved.

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< p > China's textile and apparel share in the world market is between 35%-40%, reaching 40% of its peak in 2008.

Wang Qianjin said that this amount is expected to be basically stable.

He said that although the loss of orders for low-end products in China is serious, the added value of high-end goods is rising. That is to say, although the export volume of Chinese clothing will decrease in the future, the export unit price will rise, so the final export volume can be relatively stable.

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