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Spurious Trade Will Be Suppressed And Export Data Will Return To Reality.

2013/5/10 8:58:00 19

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" in April, China's export growth rate reached 14.7%. It was questioned that the water was bigger and even led to worries about China's economy. Customs and safe have issued new rules that will open up false trade veils. The grim export of real data is not a number that can not be faced, but on the contrary, it is conducive to judging and coping with the actual economic situation. 
 > a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > export data < /a > moisture leads to worry about China's economic worries /p >
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The P style= "text-align: center" > the first quarter and the sharp increase in exports in April raised questions. Source: Bureau of statistics, Reuters 
According to the data of Customs General Administration, in April, China's export volume reached 1 trillion and 170 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7%, far better than expected. The Reuters survey showed that China's exports grew by only 10.3% in April compared with the previous year's median survey. P 
After P release, many analysts and economists questioned whether the data really reflected the situation. Mizuho Securities economist Shen Jianguang believes that China's trade data in April contain false exports, and the data in March are also. Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Nomura, said: "I am not very sure whether the April China trade data is true. I doubt that." 
"China's April export growth figures may not reflect the real situation," said Michael McDonough, Bloomberg economist at P. Asia's export growth is poor due to weak global demand. Alistair Thornton, a senior Chinese economist at IHS, also believes that China's export figures in April are still overstated because of data problems. 
 in fact, the query of China's export data is not groundless. In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by only 7.7%, while exports increased by 18.4%. The trade balance reached US $43 billion, a surge of nearly 60 times compared with the same period last year. Among them, Guangdong's trade volume with Hongkong reached 84 billion 200 million, with an increase of 92%. This led to widespread doubt. 
 the National Information Center report pointed out that there was a certain false element in the growth of China's foreign trade in the first quarter. It disclosed that the export trade in the first quarter was repatriated through the re export trade, which indirectly promoted the export growth. 
 Xingye Securities said that the actual exports in March were only -4% when compared with the historical data of other countries' imports / exports from China, while the real value of exports in February and the growth rate of customs statistics were 10%. 
 China's < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as > > economy < /a > has always relied heavily on exports and investment, and the severe export situation has also made the view of bearish China rampant. In order to curb the "false" trade, safe and customs have introduced measures to combat it. 
 > strong > standard chaos. Public panic is still silent in relevant departments. 
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 > false trade caused by hot money inflow is an important reason for the abnormal export to Hong Kong" /p >
 for the reason of "false trade", since last year, the export growth rate of Hongkong's export and customs special supervision areas has risen sharply. The appreciation of RMB is expected to attract hot money inflows, and the suspicion of trade inflation caused by arbitrage trading is hard to rule out. 
 in addition, according to media reports, the speeding up growth in recent months does not exclude the power of local governments to promote data growth. 
 in fact, the continuous distortion of export data has attracted the attention of regulators. In May 5th, the safe issued the notice of the State Administration of foreign exchange on strengthening the management of foreign exchange capital inflows. 
At the source of P < < a href= > http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp > false trade > /a > one of the important reasons is the appreciation of RMB. Therefore, the notice calls for strengthening the management of the comprehensive position of the bank's settlement and sale. In order to achieve the lower limit of the comprehensive position of the foreign exchange settlement and sale, the bank will increase the demand for the US dollar so as to relieve the pressure brought by the appreciation of the renminbi. At the same time, the signal effect of enhanced supervision will also inhibit the expectation of RMB appreciation in a certain extent. 
 on the other hand, the circular calls for the classified management of foreign exchange receipts and payments in import and export enterprises, and strengthens the verification of enterprises with abnormal or suspicious circumstances. In addition, the General Administration of Customs has also clarified the attitude of strengthening the supervision of false trade, and the strengthening of supervision will help to curb the trade growth. 
 this move will "fake trade" strike from source to flow together, and Arbitrage Behavior of enterprises may be suppressed, and export data will return to reality. Of course, the real data will be grim. Xingye securities expects that the relative real export growth rate should be around 5%. 
 however, the severe export of real data is not a number that can not be faced, but it is conducive to judging and coping with the actual economic situation. Even today's weak export situation also reflects some positive factors. 
 structural adjustment results: reduce export dependence and invest more efficiently 
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" with the supervision of customs and safe, false trade will be suppressed, and export data will return to reality .
Less than P, the three driving force of China's economy is changing in terms of investment, export and consumption. In the past, China's economic growth was driven by exports and investment infrastructure. Now, it has been clear for many times that consumption demand will be pushed forward. 
This year, the Chinese government set an economic growth target of 7.5%, which is not only lower than the target of 8% over the past years, but also lower than the economic growth rate of 7.8% in 2012. It has already released the signal of changing the way of economic growth, that is, it is more inclined to develop a more sustainable growth mode. P 
 especially in the first quarter, the total amount of social financing is not low. In April, official PMI declined from 50.9 to 50.6, HSBC PMI dropped from 51.6 to 50.4, and the export data that might be only 10% or even lower after the "false trade" were removed were not unacceptable. 
 in fact, China's official PMI has been above 50 of the ups and downs for 8 months in a row. HSBC PMI has also been over 50 for 6 consecutive months, which means that in the past six months, the manufacturing sector is improving every month. While the manufacturing sector has maintained a good momentum, the decline in exports shows that the economic restructuring has achieved initial results. 
 it is worth noticing that people in the steel industry recently said that this expected "another four trillion", but the judgment failed, and some heavy industrial enterprises sounded the alarm for loss. 
 in fact, the iron and steel industry has been trapped in over capacity for many years. Now the expected investment rescue policy has not arrived. Combined with PMI data, the manufacturing industry has maintained a positive momentum, but it is not the heavy industry represented by high energy consumption and overcapacity, which shows that economic transformation and structural adjustment are playing a role. 
 China's economy is facing a lot of risks. Although export data are facing a downward revision, there is no need to worry too much. We need to change our view of China's economy and admit that its growth rate will slow down, but we hope this development will be sustainable. 
 epilogue 
 because of the strengthening of regulation, the Arbitrage Behavior of enterprises may be suppressed, and the export growth rate is expected to gradually return to the real fundamentals. However, under the guidance of the structural adjustment mode, there will be no need to worry too much even if there is a sharp decline in exports.