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Cotton Prices Are Rising And Market Prospects Are More Optimistic.

2013/6/1 19:53:00 44

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Cotton Prices Cotton Cultivation Cotton Acquisition Cotton Purchase And Storage

according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee's April global a href= "http://xm.sjfzxm.com/" > cotton < /a > production and storage forecast data, it is estimated that the global cotton output in 2013/2014 is 23 million 470 thousand tons, which is 2 million 550 thousand tons lower than that in the 2012/13 year.

However, it is worth noting that in April, the estimated value of global cotton production increased by 250 thousand tons compared with the previous month. Of these, China's estimated value added amounted to 550 thousand tons. Therefore, the market's attitude towards cotton outlook has changed, especially in the Chinese market. Because of the more optimistic domestic cotton prices, the planting expectation is improved over last year, but it still cuts production level.

In addition, this year's global cotton is still in a high inventory state, and the main contributor of inventory is China, so after a long period of time, China is still in the state of de stocking, high inventory is already the main factor restricting cotton prices.

The increasing international status of China's cotton is a focus of international attention, and China's cotton policy is the key factor leading to the trend of China's cotton industry. Therefore, paying attention to policies and analyzing policies is an effective way to predict the trend of cotton prices in China.

international and domestic prices both show a trend of less than /strong > /p >

according to the three traders in Qingdao, Shanghai and Zhangjiagang, the price quotas of China's bonded cotton and shipping time cotton have dropped sharply in recent days. Part of the international a href= "http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/" > cotton merchants < /a > and large importers have increased the proportion of "shifting port" outside the bonded cotton and 5/7 shipping date. The main ports are ports near bathing port, Pakistan, India and other places near Indonesia. On the one hand, the price of the Chinese market has been "upside down", and sales to Southeast Asian countries should be slightly better. On the other hand, these ports are relatively convenient to ship, and once the Chinese market gets warmer, they can sign the contract directly.

US Department of agriculture's latest crop planting report data show that the US cotton sowing schedule is 14%, which is significantly lower than the 25% growth rate in the same period last year.

At present, the biggest cotton area in the United States is suffering from cold and dry weather, so the progress of new cotton planting has been greatly affected. This good news has helped us cotton to change its downtrend and continue to rise before April.

Futures market is expected to move towards 88.5 cents.

April 10th, "2013 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan" released, continue to 20400 yuan / ton price open storage.

Compared with other grain crops, planting cotton is time-consuming and laborious, and crops such as corn and peanuts are relatively simple and well managed. Therefore, after the announcement of the same storage and purchase price as last year, it is understood that the implementation of the State purchasing and storage policy has limited impact on cotton growers. In the past year, although the state has acquired the price at 20400 yuan / ton, the actual benefits of cotton farmers have not appeared, and profits have mostly fallen into the hands of cotton enterprises and traders. This is also the reason why cotton planting area has been shrinking in recent years.

But in general, the bottom effect of purchasing and storing prices is still quite obvious. Under the policy support, the Cotton falling space is very limited.

domestic planting area decreased /p >

Hengshui is one of the important cotton producing areas in Hebei, while Jizhou is the largest cotton producing area in Hengshui.

According to the Hengshui cotton and hemp general company, last year, the cotton planting area in Hengshui was about 1 million 800 thousand mu, of which 4 main cotton producing areas were Jizhou (planting area 300 thousand mu), Zaoqiang County, Gucheng county and Jingxian County (planting area was about 200 thousand mu), and the cotton planting area in the whole area of Hengshui is only about 1 million 600 thousand acres this year, which is 11% lower than that of last year.

the main reasons for the decrease of cotton planting area are as follows: first, because of the serious situation of local farmers going out to work, the rest of the village is elderly, women and children. The annual income of cotton is equivalent to the two or three months' income of going out for work. Therefore, most young people choose to go out to work, and no one wants to cultivate land. This leads to many farmers in Jizhou who are willing to contract their own land and go out to work.

secondly, because planting wheat and corn is time-saving and labor-saving, and the growth period of wheat and maize is relatively short, winter wheat can be planted in winter, and corn is harvested after planting, which is equivalent to two crops. Cotton grows longer and costs more time and labor, so in recent years more people choose to grow wheat and corn.

Only farmers who are accustomed to planting cotton and irrigating their own land still retain the habit of planting cotton.

The local farmers counted out a sum of money, planting cotton contracted land 300 yuan / mu to 700 yuan / mu, seed, fertilizer, pesticide, water and film and other expenses of 600 yuan / mu, the labor cost of farming season is more than 100 yuan, and the annual output of an acre cotton land is not less than 500 kg or so. In the disaster year of 400 kg / mu, the purchase price of cotton is 4.2 yuan / Jin, and the inferior grade 3.85 yuan / Jin.

again, last year, due to the heavy rain days after the new flower picking season last year, Hengshui's cotton was affected, and the cotton grades were greatly affected. Most of the cotton was changed from grade 3 to grade 4 and 5. Although there was a policy support made by the state for the acquisition of 5 grade cotton in 5 places such as Hengshui and Cangzhou, the purchase price of cotton decreased from 4.23 yuan to 3.78 yuan, and the income of farmers also decreased a lot. So this year farmers' confidence and enthusiasm in planting cotton are not high.

it is understood that the price of fertilizers and pesticides has increased by 10% in Hengshui this year, and the labor cost is expected to increase by 20%.

the growth of cotton seedlings this year is relatively normal in < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp" > Jizhou cotton area < /a >. Now the average height of cotton seedlings is about 15~20 cm, and most of them have grown 5~6 leaves. These days cotton farmers are busy fixing seedlings, weeding and pesticide.

Although there was a rare late snowfall in Hengshui in April 19th and 20, the sowing date was delayed for about a week, but it was understood that the snow did not cause much impact on the growth of the latter stage.

recently, the reporter came to Weixian County, Hebei Province, known as "cotton in the south of Hebei Province". Through visiting local cotton farmers, the local cotton growers cut down the cotton planting area this year and made a great variety of cash crops.

at present, the height of cotton seedling is 12~14 cm, and now it has four leaves and one heart. The cotton plant is strong and the survival rate is over 95%, and the overall growth is good.

According to a local cotton grower, 8 acres of cotton were planted last year, but only 2 mu were planted this year. The remaining 6 acres were replanted to wheat and corn, mainly because the yield of wheat and corn was much higher than that of one season cotton.

In addition, many farmers replant cotton fields into economic crops such as watermelon, oil sunflower, peanut and soybean.

Last year, at the end of March, the storage and storage of reserve cotton had ended, but the dumping was still in progress. In 2012, new cotton was also put on the market. As of April 25th, 2013 tons of stored cotton were sold out of 1265205.98 tons, of which 2012 cotton reserves were 42652.45 tons in 2012.

In addition, the decline in quotations from outside cotton is good for China's imports of foreign cotton. According to the weekly report of the US Department of agriculture's US cotton exports, since April, the US cotton export has been stable and the downstream procurement is booming.

Therefore, these two aspects are beneficial to meet the demand and purchase of "a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "textile > /a", but at the same time, it also brings some pressure to cotton prices.

on the disk, in the short term, the central axis pressure level is 20030. It is suggested that investors should rely on 20030 empty ones to hold them here.

Due to the arrival of the peak season of downstream consumption, according to the textile enterprises, the downstream orders have all improved. In the first quarter, the export data of < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing > /a > have also been greatly improved compared with last year, coupled with the supporting role of the policy, therefore, in the long run, it will provide impetus for uplink cotton prices.