Domestic Cotton Market Is Difficult To Rise, And Cotton Price Difference Is Expected To Continue To Narrow.

At present, China's cotton industry is facing many difficulties. On the surface, it is a conflict of interests between cotton farmers and a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > enterprises. In fact, it is the contradiction between state regulation and market regulation based on the policy of purchasing and storing, import quota policy.

The recent market trend of cotton market differentiation is serious.

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< p > recent cotton market internal and external market differentiation is serious.

The tight cotton supply in the US has led to a sustained rebound in US cotton, which has risen by more than 15% since the beginning of June. The domestic cotton market is mainly controlled by policies, and the trend is relatively stable. This month's cumulative increase is less than 1%.

Due to differences in fundamentals, the trend of intra and outside spreads is expected to narrow.

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< p > < strong > global cotton supply and demand pattern gradually improved, < /strong > /p >

< p > since, the world's cotton production has increased continuously, and the total output of 2011/2012 has exceeded 27 million tons.

Cotton production in 2012/2013 decreased slightly compared with the same period last year, but it is still at a high level. Cotton production is expected to decline further due to the decrease of planting area in 2013/2014.

Consumption, due to the economic downturn, consumer demand weakened.

According to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton consumption has dropped from 25 million 900 thousand tons in 2009/2010 to 22 million 500 thousand tons in 2011/2012, with over 4 million 500 thousand tons of supply in that year.

At the beginning of 2012/2013, the global economy was gradually stable, and consumer demand began to improve. It is estimated that cotton consumption in 2013/2014 is expected to reach 24 million tons. However, the overall cotton supply in the world is still in the pattern of oversupply, and the inventory consumption ratio continues to rise slightly.

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Except for China, the supply and demand pattern in other parts of the world has improved P.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee estimates that the inventory consumption ratio outside China will drop to 48% in the past second years in 2013/2014, a low level in history.

At present, cotton market has gradually entered the stage of annual replacement, and the global circulation of cotton resources is limited, and short term supply is tight.

US cotton export data this year continued to be beautiful, inventory at a low level, the new year's planting area decreased significantly, the growth situation is less than in previous years, Lido cotton, ICE cotton continued to rebound.

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< p > < strong > the domestic cotton market is difficult to break up < /strong > < /p >.

< p > domestic cotton market is still a "policy market".

In order to stabilize domestic cotton production and operation, protect the interests of cotton farmers and ensure market supply, the government has implemented cotton storage and storage for three years in a row, accumulative total of 3 million 130 thousand tons of cotton in 2011, and accumulative total of 6 million 510 thousand tons of cotton in 2012. In 2013, the policy of purchasing and storage was basically determined, and it continued to open up and store.

At present, China's stock reserves exceed 10 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption for a year, and domestic cotton market will continue to be dominated by policies for a long time.

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< p > a weak recovery in the consumer market.

According to China Customs data, in May, the export value of our textiles < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > amounted to US $22 billion 972 million, up by 5.21% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped. The growth rate in April was 18.52%.

From 1 to May, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 103 billion 119 million US dollars, up 13.79% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by nearly 5 percentage points from the previous month.

Domestic textile and clothing consumption market still improved little. In May, domestic garment retail sales grew at a relatively low level, the growth rate was only 3%, but it improved compared with last month.

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< p > the supply of cotton market in China is basically controlled by the government, and the cotton price trend under the policy will be relatively stable.

In addition, because the global economy is still in a weak recovery stage, consumer demand is hard to effectively release.

Therefore, the domestic cotton market is difficult to rise in the short term.

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< p > < strong > inside and outside cotton price difference is expected to continue to narrow down < /strong > /p >

< p > since June last year, the price difference between internal and external markets has been as high as 3000 yuan to 4000 yuan / ton, and the import profit of the quota is very rich. Therefore, spinning enterprises prefer cotton.

Recently, the cotton price trend has been divided due to the differences between the internal and external market fundamentals. The US cotton has continued to rebound, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices has narrowed.

At present, the import cotton price index FCIndexM offers 99.06 cents / pound, sliding tax discount of RMB 16268 yuan / ton, the Chinese cotton price index CCIndec328 was 19318 yuan / ton in the same period, and import profit decreased by about 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, but the profit in the quota still has 3000 yuan / ton, and the outer cotton has great attraction.

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< p > the number of imported cotton in China has declined.

According to customs statistics, in May 2013, China imported 345 thousand and 800 tons of cotton, and from September 2012 to May 2013, China imported 3 million 512 thousand and 500 tons of cotton, down 739 thousand and 200 tons compared with the same period last year.

From 1 to May of 2013, China imported 2 million 141 thousand and 800 tons of cotton, down 435 thousand and 600 tons compared with the same period last year.

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At present, the basic situation of cotton market at home and abroad is clearer, and the biggest uncertainty comes from China. P

Since China controls nearly 60% of the world's inventory, if the government adjusts its import, dumping and storage policies in 2013, it will have a significant impact on the global cotton market pattern.

If the government continues to maintain the continuity of its policy, there will still be room for rebound in the future, and the price gap between the inside and outside markets will further narrow.

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