Can The Textile And Garment Industry Effectively "Go Out Of Stock"?

< p > < strong > production is expected to decline slightly, inventory continues to rise < /strong > < /p >

< p > at this session, all parties concerned paid attention to the new a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/" > cotton < /a > production expectations.

According to the prediction of the US Department of agriculture (from August 1st to July 31st, next year's international cotton year), the global and US cotton market will still be affected by uncertainties in climate, production and demand in 2013/2014. The 2013/2014 cotton planting area is estimated to be 34 million hectares, a decrease of 1% (261 thousand hectares) compared with the previous year. The yield is expected to be reduced to 753 kg / ha. Although the output of India and Brazil has increased, considering the expected decline in cotton production in the United States and China, the global cotton output is 117 million 800 thousand packs this year, a decrease of 3% over the previous year.

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The expected decline of < p > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton yield < /a > has not eliminated the worries of the industry on inventory growth.

From the perspective of global cotton stocks, the market situation is obviously oversupply.

The relevant statistical forecasts show that in 2011/2012, the world's cotton stocks increased by 5 million 600 thousand tons; in 2012/2013, the global cotton stocks may increase by about 3000000 tons; in 2013/2014, it will also increase by about 1 million 700 thousand tons.

In the cotton season, global cotton consumption has increased by less than 200 thousand tons. From this point of view, the world's cotton production has been surplus.

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Ai Lunbao, chief executive officer of Cotton Corp P, said that in the world's cotton supply and demand balance, 2011/2012's global end inventory has increased to 92 million 700 thousand packs, reaching the highest level in history, and it is close to annual consumption. This inventory is obviously too high for the whole cotton industry, and will lead cotton farmers and cotton spinning enterprises to predict the next cotton price trend.

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< p > < strong > drought and monsoon influence the main cotton production in China is < /strong > < /p >

< p > for the prediction of cotton output in the new year, Ray Butler, chief editor of British trail company, said: "the output of cotton is closely related to the climate and cotton growers' willingness to grow. It is estimated that the output of cotton in the United States has declined, and the output of cotton in India has increased slightly.

Brazil's cotton production is expected to rebound sharply as a result of the delayed cotton growing period.

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< p > as the third largest cotton producing country in the world, the US cotton output in 2013/2014 is expected to reach 3 million tons, down 19% from the previous year.

Carol Skelly, chairman of the cotton outlook Committee of the US Department of agriculture, pointed out that the decline in US cotton production is mainly due to two reasons: first, the price of all alternative crops is relatively high, which will reduce the production area of cotton production; the second is the continuous drought in the main planting areas of the southwestern United States.

The US Department of agriculture's forecast in May showed that if the drought continues, the willingness of cotton growers in the United States to continue to grow cotton will continue to decline, which will lead to a 10% decrease in cotton planting area in the new year.

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The difference between P and the United States is that cotton farmers in India grow enthusiastically because of the considerable benefits of planting cotton.

If the seasonal rainfall is normal, India's 2013/2014 a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton yield < /a > is expected to reach 27 million packs, an increase of 2% over the previous year.

Ray Butler said: "India has started planting genetically modified cotton, but its share is relatively small, so its impact on the overall cotton yield is limited.

However, if India wants to continue to expand its cotton production, its industrial technology and crop management system need to be improved.

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< p > especially worth mentioning is that Brazil's cotton market, because of its relative delayed planting time in the southern hemisphere, is conducive to obtaining the information of supply and demand in the cotton market, and helps it make necessary adjustments to the planting decisions, reduce risks and maximize profits.

Ray Butler predicts that cotton harvest area in Brazil will be close to 1 million 100 thousand hectares in 2013/2014, an increase of 22% over the previous year, and the output will also rise.

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< p > < strong > emerging markets will hold up cotton consumption < /strong > /p >

< p > in addition to output and inventory, cotton industry's attention to terminal consumption is also more concerned.

With the expected increase in economic recovery, the new year's cotton consumption and its positive impact on inventory consumption are highly regarded.

According to Carol Skelly, chairman of the cotton outlook Committee of the US Department of agriculture, the amount of cotton used by American consumers has shown a downward trend in the past few years.

In 2012, cotton consumption per capita was only 11.7 kilograms. The main reason for this phenomenon was that man-made fiber products gradually replaced cotton products.

But she believes that in the case of a better understanding of the fine characteristics of cotton products, the amount of cotton used by American consumers in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 will gradually recover.

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< p > in the cotton consumption of the new year, the representatives of research institutions and enterprises are generally optimistic about the performance of emerging markets such as India, Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Chirag Lakhani, director of DML group, said India is the second largest cotton producer, consumer and exporter in the world.

Benefiting from the rapid economic development, India's a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > industry continues to move upstream to the value chain.

India's local demand for cotton was strong in 2012/213, and domestic consumption has increased by about 1700000 bales.

If India's investment policy is further open, its cotton consumption is likely to catch up with the US in the next few years.

Meanwhile, the consumption of cotton products in Bangladesh and Vietnam has also increased strongly.

Ray Butler pointed out that due to the relatively low labor costs, the investment volume of these two countries has gradually increased, and its cotton spinning industry has been developing at a faster pace.

Over the past 7 years, Vietnam's cotton consumption has increased by 1 times.

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< p > cotton is a popular fiber variety. Recent research results confirm this point.

According to the "lifestyle" survey conducted by Cotton Corp and the international cotton association of the United States, consumers are paying more and more attention to value.

In Italy, although the number of consumers purchasing less than a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > is decreasing, the quality of clothing is improving. Clothing that can show grade is most popular with consumers.

Participants pointed out that in order to restore the status of cotton in the clothing and home a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing /a industry, we must create and reshape market demand, so that consumers, brands and retailers understand the value and importance of cotton and find the lost market share.

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