Expectation For Profit Growth Of Key Companies In The Textile And Clothing Industry In 2013

The quantitative research of Today Investment Financial Information Co., Ltd. shows that 23 institutions have paid attention to "the industry with the highest institutional attention" in the past week spin Products and Clothes & Accessories Industry, 11 more than last week, ranking first in the list of institutional attention.

Textile since this year clothing Industry growth ranked lower, slightly lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Brands fell mostly and generally fell significantly (only 100 yuan and Sima rose), and some manufacturing industries rose significantly (Lutai and Huafu). In the first half of July, the industry slightly outperformed Shanghai and Shenzhen by 300, with most of the increase in brand category (led by companies with excellent performance in the medium term), and the same was true for manufacturing category (but the increase of LUTAI and HUAFU was slightly lower); H-share brand differentiation is obvious, with Changxing, Anta and Liufu leading the rise, Daphne leading the decline, manufacturing also has differentiation, Tianhong leading the rise, Jiuxing leading the decline.

Wang Wei, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, said that the textile and clothing industry had also undergone a significant adjustment in the early stage with the increase of the overall market risk, and recently it has become stable again on this valuation level. In the second half of the year, although retail sales could not be expected to recover, the next order meeting is expected to be low shock, unlike the previous two order meetings, where the gap has slowed down or declined significantly. Therefore, after this round of major adjustment, the valuation risk of high-quality brands is relatively controllable. What we prefer is that enterprises with strong channel control, good retail ability, management foundation to make risk relatively controllable and actively deploy e-commerce strategy, such as Fuanna, Landsee, Toread and other advantageous stocks can be bought on bargain. The leading cotton enterprises rose a lot in the early stage. Although the absolute income space may not be as good as before in the later stage, the performance continues to improve and the relative risk is not large. It is still recommended to grasp the relative opportunities of Lutai, Blum and Huafu with the release of Q2 and Q3 performance.

As the domestic retail market has not yet seen obvious signs of recovery, and affected by the weather, the overall terminal retail performance in the second quarter was lower than that in the first quarter, so it is expected that the brand company's mid report performance will mainly meet or slightly lower than expected. While the leading enterprises in the manufacturing industry are in the process of continuous improvement in their fundamentals, and the cost of raw materials in the second quarter has decreased year on year, and the product price has slightly increased month on month. It is expected that the improvement trend of manufacturing leading enterprises in the second quarter will further strengthen.

The profit growth forecast of key companies in the textile and clothing industry in 2013:

Companies with an increase of more than 100%: Huafu Sefang. Since this year, the company's order price has continued to improve slightly. In the second quarter, there was still a small single digit increase on a month on month basis, with the recovery of absolute prices and the contribution of the improvement of product structure. In terms of cost, the average purchase price of cotton has been slightly lower than the inventory cost since this year, and the import cotton has increased, so the cost end of the second quarter still fell month on month. Driven by a slight improvement in the sales price and a slight decline in the cost side, the company's gross profit margin in the second quarter continued to improve month on month, and the base was low in the same period last year (the comprehensive gross profit margin was only 9.5%), which drove the gross profit margin in the second quarter to improve significantly year on year. It is expected that the mid report profit will increase by about 120%.

Companies with a growth rate of 40-60%: Toread and Lutai A. Pathfinder: In the spring and summer order meeting of 2013, some product prices were increased, but the supply discounts to franchisees were reduced, so the ex factory prices did not change much. However, with the improvement of supply chain management and control level and the embodiment of scale benefits, the cost was reasonably controlled, and the stability of gross profit margin was ensured. At the same time, under the scale effect, cost control is effectively controlled. The superposition of the two factors has jointly promoted the rapid and stable growth of profits. It is expected that the growth of main business profits will be 30-40%, and under the effect of preferential income tax rates, the overall growth of mid report profits is expected to reach 63%. Lutai A: In the second quarter, the sales price of the company's products continued to improve. In the case of year-on-year decline in costs, it strengthened the improvement of profit in the second quarter. At the same time, under the effect of a low base, it is expected that the profit growth in the mid report will reach about 45%.

There are also companies whose growth rate is about 20% - 30%: Souyute, Fuanna, Lao Fengxiang and Kanudi Road. Companies whose growth rate is about 10% or so: Lucie Shares, Seven Wolves, Sima Garments, Weixing Shares and Luolai Home Textiles. Companies with a decline of 0-10% or about 10%: Jiumuwang, Aokang International. Companies with a decline of about 20% or more: Baoxiniao, Dayang Chuangshi, Youngor and Meibang Garments.