The Market Of Acrylonitrile Continued To Rise In July.

Since the middle of June, the spot market of acrylonitrile at home and abroad has been divided. The external market is relatively strong, rising gradually and approaching 1800 US dollars / ton. In July, the price of ICIS week was estimated to be US $1700-1800 / ton (CFR Northeast Asia), or about 12700-13400 yuan / ton (considering value added tax 17%, tariff 3% and exchange rate 6.18).

However, the domestic RMB market has not been as encouraging as usual. On the contrary, the trend has continued to fall. Since mid June, it has been out of the independent market from the outside market. As of July 17th, the ICISChemease price has been assessed to 12100-12300 yuan / ton (East China port outlet).

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< p > the market at home and abroad presents a double cold situation.

First, the price trend of acrylonitrile products in the first half of 2013 is contrasted from the above chart. In June, the foreign acrylonitrile spot market has been on the rise. In the US, the price of raw material propylene has risen to 1375 US dollars / ton. At the same time, the number of automobile manufacturing and real estate industry has improved, and the demand for ABS has increased.

In Asia, the price of propylene has risen from $1350 / ton to near $1420 / tonne at the end of the month. Meanwhile, major domestic manufacturers such as Asahi Asahi and Taiwan SINOPEC are in the state of production or overhaul, while the supply of ocean cargo from the United States is scarce, and the overall supply is tight, and the trend is relatively satisfactory.

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< p > entering July, the foreign market basically continued the many favorable factors mentioned above in June, and the market continued to be on the rise.

However, the performance of the RMB market is not satisfactory. Although the imported goods are less, however, most of the main production facilities in northern Jilin Petrochemical Company, Qilu Petrochemical Company, East China Anqing Petrochemical Company, Shanghai Secco and so on are running smoothly. The supply of sufficient domestic goods basically makes up for the lack of imported goods. Meanwhile, in the summer season, the demand for ABS, acrylic and acrylamide in the downstream market is mostly in a weak market, and the demand side is relatively low.

Above all, from the short-term performance, we have analyzed the current situation of domestic and international cash flow in general.

The domestic port market consists of domestic goods and imported goods. Up to now, the domestic spot market in the first half of this year is relatively stable compared with the previous stage.

On the import side, from the actual import data, in 2012, the total import volume of acrylonitrile in China was 555 thousand tons, of which 74% accounted for the contract goods and 26% accounted for the spot.

In 2013 1-5, China imported 248 thousand tons of acrylonitrile, an increase of 19 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, of which the contracted goods accounted for 83%, and spot products accounted for only 17%. Compared with the same period last year, the decrease was obvious. Meanwhile, the quantity of imported goods also decreased significantly, and the increase came mainly from the contracted goods.

In the two and 2012-2013 years, the import and export of acrylonitrile and contract goods are compared. In the 1-5 months of this year, the proportion of contract goods and spot has changed so much on the basis of the increase in total import volume, which is closely related to the increase of domestic capacity.

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< p > this year, a set of 130 thousand tons / year acrylonitrile production plant has been put into operation this year. Since its commissioning, most of its output has gone to the market beyond ABS and acrylic fiber, that is, (polyacrylamide) and other small downstream demand areas. The market has always been the main spot in the field of acrylonitrile demand, and the volume of contracted goods in imports mostly flows into the ABS and acrylic fiber downstream market. Most of the operators are mainly domestic traders and some small downstream markets.

The market of new capacity is basically overlapped with the demand of East China ports, so the production of new capacity is bound to have a great impact on the spot market of East China ports.

In the next few years, there are still some new equipment production plans in China, such as the 260 thousand tons / year acrylonitrile plant of Sinopec Wanda plan to put into production 130 thousand tons in the fourth quarter of 14 years. The capacity of 260 thousand tons / year of Shanghai SECCO's expansion has started construction this year, and is planned to be put into operation at the end of 14.

Other companies such as Shanghai petrochemical, Taiwan Sinopec, Zhejiang Keyuan, and Bohai group have already planned to build acrylonitrile plant.

Figure three and 2009-2015 China's acrylonitrile capacity growth plan in recent years, however, demand growth, the capacity growth of acrylic fiber in recent years is almost zero, while the expansion of ABS market capacity is mainly concentrated in 11-13 years. The expansion rate of ABS will slow down, and the growth of acrylamide and other small downstream markets will be stable. Overall, the capacity growth of acrylonitrile and downstream areas will not match, and the oversupply or even more obvious performance in the next few years, the corresponding price competition is bound to be more incentive.

Most of the acrylonitrile plant in China is supplied with raw materials, and some manufacturers are equipped with downstream acrylic or ABS devices. Therefore, domestic manufacturers will be more flexible in comparison with imported products based on cost advantages. I believe that in addition to the imported and imported processing imported from some ABS factories abroad, some of the downstream factories are importing and importing, and the advantages of domestic goods in cost and price will also become more prominent.

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