Cotton Prices Remained Relatively High In The First Half Of 2013.

< p > China is the largest cotton producer, consumer and importer in the world, and has been carrying out cotton storage and import quota system for many years.

Since the implementation of the open cotton purchase and storage policy in 2011, the domestic cotton price has been significantly higher than the international market average price in the same period.

In 2013, under the background of the decline of domestic cotton yields, the policy of purchasing and storage was forced to continue. In the first half of the year, cotton prices in the domestic market basically remained around the purchasing and storage prices, while the price of foreign cotton remained weak under the weaker supply and demand pattern. Although the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was narrowed slightly, the overall cotton price remained at a high level of over 4000 yuan.

In the case of limited import quotas, most cotton spinning enterprises can only purchase high priced cotton in China, and the cost pressure is high, and the export competitiveness of the cotton textile industry is weakened.

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< p > in the future, in the year of 2013/14 cotton, affected by the downturn in downstream demand and the overall increase in output, the global cotton consumption ratio will reach the highest point in history. Cotton will maintain a loose supply and demand pattern throughout the world, and cotton prices will rise slowly.

Because of the weak demand for foreign demand and the decline of domestic demand growth, the downstream demand of domestic cotton is not vibrant, and China is also faced with large inventory pressure.

However, at the present stage, the price of cotton in China is still determined by policy rather than market factors. The price of 20400 yuan / ton of standard cotton lint will remain significantly higher than the price of cotton in the coming year.

For enterprises unable to obtain quotas, most of the domestic "a" target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a >, the cost of raw materials is still relatively high in the short run.

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< p > open cotton purchasing and storage policy is still going on. In the first half of 2013, cotton price difference remained at a high level, and domestic cotton spinning enterprises had high cost pressure < /p >

< p > China is the largest cotton producing country, consumer country and importer in the world. The output in 2005 is about 550~750 million tons, which accounts for about 30% of the world's total output, and its total consumption is maintained at 700~1000 million tons, accounting for 40% of the world's total consumption.

In recent years, in addition to some extreme years, China's annual cotton imports have remained at 200~300 million tons.

Cotton is mainly produced by cotton spinning enterprises. The cost of raw materials accounts for about 60% of the cost of production.

Textile enterprises have small profit margins and poor ability to pfer costs, which are more sensitive to changes in raw material prices.

In 2010~2011, the price of cotton market fluctuated sharply. In order to stabilize market volatility and protect cotton farmers' enthusiasm, China adjusted its original regional, temporary and limited cotton purchase and storage policy to annual pricing and annual normalized open storage.

With the drop in cotton prices in the global market and the high cost of domestic cotton growing, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been significantly upside down, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is more than 5000 yuan.

In 2011 and 2012, the price of standard grade lint to warehouse was 19800 yuan / ton and 20400 yuan / ton respectively, higher than the global market average price.

In terms of imports, China implements cotton import quota system. In 2004, the annual import quota of cotton imports was 894 thousand tons. In addition, there were different quota increment quotas per year, but the import quota was limited. Most textile enterprises in China were forced to use domestic high priced cotton, which was under the pressure of higher raw material cost.

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Since P 2012, due to the overall downturn in the domestic textile industry, the domestic market demand for cotton is not strong, while cotton related planting costs are still rising, and cotton farmers' enthusiasm is further reduced. According to the China Cotton Association's intention survey data, in 2013, domestic cotton planting area was 68 million 160 thousand mu, down 6.8% compared with the same period last year, the lowest record in 10 years.

Against this background, in order to safeguard the enthusiasm of domestic cotton growers and ensure long-term domestic cotton supply, the open cotton purchasing and storage policy is continued, and the price of purchasing and storage is flat.

From the specific price level, in 2013 1~7 months, under the weaker supply and demand pattern, the cotton market basically continued the operation trend in 2012.

Domestic cotton market pactions and prices are still mainly dominated by policies. From September 2011 to March 2013, the total volume of storage and storage was 9 million 636 thousand and 700 tons. From September 2011 to mid July 2013, the total turnover was 3 million 445 thousand and 300 tons, and the selling price of dumping and storage (328 discount) was about 18500~19500 yuan / ton.

Internationally, with the support of China's high purchasing and storage prices, global cotton prices rose slightly in the first half of 2013. The average price of China's imported cotton price index from January to May (1% tariff discount) was 14044 yuan / ton, 14068 yuan / ton, 15501 yuan / ton, 15313 yuan / ton and 15043 yuan / ton respectively.

The cotton price in the first half of 2013 was about 4000~5000 yuan, although it narrowed compared with that in 2012, the domestic cotton price is still relatively high compared with foreign countries.

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< p > 2013/14 cotton year's global cotton supply is loose, the positive price difference between inside and outside cotton will still exist, and domestic textile enterprises will still bear a great pressure of raw material cost < /p >

< p > the global cotton supply will continue to be lax in the coming year.

First of all, demand side, textile a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > industry has a certain periodicity. In the future, the slow recovery of global macro-economy will still greatly affect the downstream demand of textile and garment industry. It is expected that short-term demand will continue to be weak.

Secondly, on the supply side, according to the monthly report of cotton demand and supply released by the US Department of agriculture, the annual cotton yield of 2012/13 and 2013/14 cotton is 26 million 334 thousand tons and 25 million 696 thousand tons respectively, and the output level is at the peak of 2005.

The end of the world's cotton stocks will reach 18 million 459 thousand tons and 20 million 540 thousand tons respectively, and the stock will rise to the highest level in nearly 10 years. The inventory consumption ratio will reach 86% in 2013, the highest point since the statistics.

In a relaxed supply environment, foreign cotton prices lack a driving force.

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< p > domestic cotton supply and demand, in the near future, will be depressed by external demand, and domestic demand growth will decline. The prosperity of domestic textile and garment industry will continue to be low, and downstream demand for cotton will not flourish.

On the supply side, according to the monthly report of cotton demand and supply released by the US Department of agriculture, China's cotton production in 2012/13 and 2013/14 cotton will be 7 million 620 thousand tons and 7 million 403 thousand tons respectively. The final inventory will reach 10 million 508 thousand tons and 12 million 831 thousand tons respectively, accounting for 56.93% and 62.47% of the global stock in the same period.

China's cotton inventory consumption ratio was 139% in 2012, and the inventory pressure is very high.

Generally speaking, the domestic cotton supply and demand is loose in the short term. Under the current supply and demand environment, the domestic cotton price trend is mainly affected by the purchase and storage and quota policy.

From September 2013 to March 2014, the state will remain open at 20400 yuan / ton, and the domestic and foreign cotton prices will remain at a higher level in the case of loose cotton supply.

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< p > under the background of domestic and foreign market cotton price upside down, different types of textile enterprises are affected by the spread of price difference differently. The cost side pressure of quota enterprises is significantly less than that of enterprises without import quotas, and the advantage of quotas is more obvious for domestic enterprises.

From the 14 listed companies and issuing enterprises of the A share cotton spinning industry, [2] is considered. The export enterprises with quota as represented by Fu sun shares are mainly referring to the international cotton price, so the quota has little effect on the improvement of the performance.

Bought 75 thousand and 300 tons of imported cotton in 2012, accounting for 94.13% of total cotton purchase, average purchasing price of 13300 yuan / ton, gross profit margin of 15.97% in 2012, 1.28 percentage points lower than that of last year.

The domestic enterprises with quota, represented by Wei Qiao venture, increased profit margins due to relatively low raw material costs.

Wei Qiao has an annual import quota of 300 thousand tons, and the quota is at the leading level in the country. In the first half of 2011 and 2012, the purchase amount of imported cotton accounted for 40% and 74% of the total purchase volume, and the average purchasing price of cotton in the first half of 2012 was 14000 yuan / ton.

In 2012, Wei Qiao's gross profit margin increased by 1.28 percentage points to 8.80%, and its subsidiary company's Wei Qiao textile gross profit margin increased from 1.8% last year to 6.8%, and its business performance has been greatly improved.

However, the part of self owned cotton represented by Lu Tai A reduced some cost through the synergy of the industrial chain.

In 2012, Lu Tai A produced 17 thousand and 500 tons of cotton and the cost of cotton self supply was about 16020 yuan / ton [3], to a certain extent, to ease the pressure on the cost of raw materials outsourcing.

But in general, as China's annual import quota is less than 25% of the annual demand, so in the short term, most domestic cotton spinning enterprises will still face greater pressure on raw material costs in addition to some large enterprises that meet the requirements of the quota application.

With the high price of cotton within and outside, the rising cost of raw materials will aggravate the weakening of the export competitiveness of the cotton textile industry.

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