Clothing Industry: Vulnerable Terminal Areas With Large Negative Growth

In 2013, many industries were highly regarded as the warmer year. However, under the environment of economic downturn and sluggish demand, many domestic industries still have difficulties in the first half of the year. The reporter chose the six major industries to analyze the reasons behind the bad performance of the high school entrance examination, and also predicted the development in the second half of the year. In fact, the rest of the year is not dull. Industry experts generally believe that it is imperative for enterprises to think about how to turn danger into a "machine".

Liquor industry:

Negative effects continue to ferment

Although all listed wine companies have not fully announced their performance in the first half of this year, they can also be seen from some of the liquor companies that have issued notices. Overall, the impact of negative factors such as plasticizer, "three public" consumption restrictions and prohibition of liquor last year has not been dispersed this year. Compared with the growth rate of medium and high-end liquor enterprises, the decline of middle and low end liquor enterprises is even more tragic.

According to the results of the report, Huangtai liquor expects net profit loss of about 500 thousand yuan in the first half of this year, and liquor industry has entered a period of adjustment due to market factors. The company's first 6 months operating income has dropped sharply compared with the same period last year, and net profit has dropped by 87%~ 89% compared with the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 185 million 947 thousand and 200 yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first half of 2013 will be reduced by about 80% compared with the same period last year. The Yanghe River expects net profit in the first half of this year to be 3 billion 174 million ~34.91 billion yuan, up from 0~10% only.

Forecast: for liquor companies in the second half of the performance trend, the industry is also not optimistic, that the growth rate of decline will continue for about two years to alleviate.

Iron and steel industry:

Warmer than expected

The overall situation of the iron and steel industry has not shown signs of obvious warming, and the operating pressure of steel enterprises continues to increase. A few days ago, more than 20 listed steel companies which issued the notice of the Chinese newspapers, most of them were pre cut and loss, and the company accounted for nearly 60% of the pre performance companies.

From the published data, the company with larger expected performance losses is Valin steel. The company predicted that it lost 373 million ~3.93 billion in the first half. However, this figure is much better than that of the same period last year. In 2012, the company reported a loss of about 1 billion 304 million yuan. In addition, Ma Steel shares also announced continued losses, the company lost about 1 billion 890 million yuan in the first half of last year. Even the profitability of the steel business is not optimistic. Angang disclosed in its performance forecast that its net profit of 700 million yuan in the first half of this year is expected to be 1 billion 976 million yuan in the same period last year. According to the insiders, the majority of domestic steel enterprises, including Anshan Iron and Steel Co., are still unable to escape losses, and the so-called losses are mostly realized through asset replacement.

Forecast: since June, the production reduction and limited production of steel mills increase, and the recent resource pressure has been relieved, but as the steel market turns better, the later output will gradually rise, the price of raw materials will continue to go high and the later will run high. So in the second half of the year, steel city is still facing great pressure.

　　 clothing Industry:

Trapped terminal weakness

Recently, CIC released a 2013 preview report on China's report, which was listed in the first half of this year. Brand clothing The company's performance has seen a large negative growth. Clothes & Accessories The decline rates of Anta sports, good news birds, nine herding kings and YOUNGOR were 48%, 32%, 23%, 13% and 10% respectively.

According to analysis, the growth rate of clothing retail sales in the two quarter of this year is lower than that in the first quarter, of which 5~6 month has slightly improved compared with April, but it is still at a low level. Franchisee's confidence is at a low level, orders and pick-up are very cautious, there is almost no replenishment order, which makes the brand clothing company's revenue growth in the first half of the year is generally lower than the order growth rate.

Forecast: in the second half of the year, overseas demand is not expected to deteriorate rapidly, raw material prices are basically stable, and the recovery of the company's performance in the second half of this year is expected to continue. However, due to the uncertainty of overseas demand and the higher base level in the second half of last year, the growth of company performance in the second half of this year is likely to slow down compared with the first half of the year.

Coal industry:

Slump in coal prices due to sluggish demand

The price of coal has fallen heavily, which has seriously affected the profit performance of enterprises. A few days ago, the coal companies listed on the notice of earnings were released, and the net profit of most companies dropped sharply. Among them, the Yangquan coal industry's first half net profit was 640 million yuan, down 51.74% compared with the same period last year; Ping Mei shares were 431 million yuan, down 48.02% compared with the same period last year; the net profit of Anyuan coal industry decreased by 62.92% compared with the same period last year.

The reason for their net profit decline is generally the same. Under the macroeconomic downturn, the demand for the coal market is not strong, and the coal price in the reporting period has dropped sharply compared with the same period. According to Qinhuangdao coal network monitoring data, since the beginning of this year, coal prices have maintained a downward trend. As of last Wednesday, the thermal coal price index of the Bohai rim closed at 578 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 8.69% compared with 633 yuan / ton earlier this year.

Forecast: according to the analysis of industry experts, although the peak period of electricity consumption has entered the summer, the power demand is limited, the coal inventory of each power plant is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm of purchasing is still not high, so the price of coal will continue to fall, which is obviously worse for the coal enterprises in the second half of the year.

Shipbuilding Industry:

Orders rose and profits dropped.

In recent days, the largest private shipyard, Rongsheng heavy industry, has caused labor disputes because of the tight chain of funds. The world's fourth largest shipyard, STX Dalian, has been pushed down by workers for months in a row. The reality of the two companies in North, South and north is also reflecting the current shipbuilding industry. The interim report issued by China Shipping shares showed that the net loss in the first half of the company exceeded 60 million yuan.

According to the data of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in 2013 1~6, the new ship order of 22 million 900 thousand heavy-duty tons, an increase of 113.2% over the same period last year. However, the 80 main monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry achieved 120 billion 300 million yuan in main business revenue, down 18.5% from the same period last year, and the total profit was 3 billion 580 million yuan, down 53.6% from the same period last year.

According to the analysis, the rise of new orders is mainly due to the extremely low world shipbuilding market in 2012 and the relatively low base. "The rebound of volume in 2013 is the return from bottom to normal." However, the shipbuilding industry in China is still facing problems such as "difficulties in delivery, difficulty in receiving orders, difficulty in financing, and difficulty in making profits". According to the current ship price index, China's shipbuilding enterprises have no profit.

Forecast: some experts say that the shipbuilding industry will continue to operate at a low level in the second half of this year. China Shipbuilding Industry Association has proposed that under the current economic situation, technical strength and cost control become the key to market competition.

Paper industry:

A bottomless pit

The two largest listed companies in the paper industry, Chenming Paper and Yueyang forestry paper, have released half yearly results. Judging from the semi annual report, the performance of the two companies is dismal, and a big ups and downs can represent the current situation of paper industry which is still in deep recession.

Yueyang forestry paper, which has been losing money since last year, has not changed. In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net profit of -0.13 billion yuan, down 1131.92% compared with the same period last year, while Chenming paper, which also had a continuous performance, achieved a net profit of 290 million ~3.2 billion in the first half of the year, but its net profit in the first quarter was only 71 million 400 thousand yuan. Yueyang forestry paper said that the sales price of commercial pulp and wrapping paper produced by the wholly owned subsidiary of the company was weak due to the macro-economic, overcapacity, downstream demand and the massive release of foreign commercial pulp production capacity, resulting in a loss in the first half of the year.

Forecast: a brokerage analyst believes that the paper industry downturn will continue for some time, the second half of the year can be more cost control and structural adjustment efforts.