It Is Difficult To Keep The Cotton Prices Back To The Market.

For 3 consecutive years, the end of the cotton purchase and storage was finished, and the call for purchase and storage was straightening up. This year's pilot project in Xinjiang and the implementation next year will be recognized by the people in the industry. Zhang Hongzhou, general manager of China Galaxy Futures Company's cotton industry department, believes that if cotton is bought and stored, the domestic cotton price will gradually return to the market and be in line with the international cotton price. But in the second half of next year to next year, domestic cotton prices will probably remain stable and weak.

Storage is difficult to sustain.

The international cotton price plummeted from 2010 to 2011, almost falling from the high point of 31000 yuan / ton to the bottom of 13000 yuan / ton. After the crash, 8 ministries and commissions such as the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly launched the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy to stabilize the domestic cotton market and cotton planting area.

It was learned that the cotton purchase and storage policy was opened in 2011. From 2011 to 2012 (in 2013, the storage and purchase had not yet started), the total storage capacity in the two years was 9 million 630 thousand tons, accounting for 90% of the total cotton output in the country. The total cost was 194 billion 574 million yuan, and domestic cotton inventories accounted for more than 50% of the global inventory.

It is reported that cotton purchase and storage price was 19800 yuan / ton in 2011, and the storage price rose to 20400 yuan / ton in 2012. In order to ensure that cotton farmers do not replant other agricultural products, the price of cotton storage and storage is far higher than the international cotton price. Large scale storage and storage led to a serious shortage of cotton circulation in the market, and the state regulated the supply through storage. However, due to the serious decline in quality of cotton reserves, the cotton enterprises would not have high willingness to store.

It was learned that yesterday at Guotai Junan's thematic telephone conference, Zhang Hongzhou said, "now Spin The industry is very poor, the cost of purchasing and storage is increased, and the cost of small businesses is too high, resulting in shutting down. Last year, the capacity to suspend production accounted for 20% to 30% of the industry.

Cotton prices return to market

Zhang Hongzhou analysis, cotton next year will not continue to purchase and storage has been set. It is expected that the pilot project will be launched in the second half of the year. The pilot project should be launched in Xinjiang, or before May.

It is understood that the purchase and storage of direct subsidies, simply speaking, only subsidies to households, instead of directly controlling the supply of cotton and the rise and fall of cotton prices. Cotton farmers get subsidies directly, planting enthusiasm is high, planting area may expand in the future, corresponding cotton supply will also increase, the market price will go down.

The effect of direct subsidy is to gradually return domestic cotton prices to the market and integrate with the international cotton prices. Therefore, the future trend of cotton prices is downward, but considering the interaction of various policies, cotton price is a slow down process. Zhang Hongzhou said.

Lower cotton prices for domestic leading textile enterprises is not a good thing. Zhang Hongzhou believes that once the cotton prices return to the market, small businesses will bring back to life, which may have a negative impact on large enterprises.

Undetermined direct compensation mode

The key factor determining the future cotton price trend is the way and intensity of direct subsidy.

Zhang Hongzhou envisaged that if the central government allocated funds down to the next level, it would be easy to get into trouble. If the subsidy is directly sent to each household, the cost will be relatively high. Not only should the area of each family be counted beforehand, but also the collection method of each household should be counted, and when to issue it is also a problem. If the subsidy is given before planting, it is very likely that cotton farmers will not grow cotton after they get the money. The most important thing is how much subsidy per mu directly determines cotton production.

It is noted that the storage time in 2013 will be from September 1st this year to March 31st next year. If the direct subsidy is fully implemented next year, it should be issued in May before planting. That is to say, the decision to decide cotton prices next year is not only a direct subsidy plan, but also a market supply and demand relationship.

Zhang Hongzhou introduced that under the interaction of the two policies, cotton prices in the next year will probably remain at 18000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton. "If next year's nationwide direct subsidy is made, assuming that farmers can get subsidies before planting next year, the price of cotton will probably be as low as 16000 yuan / ton, but considering that the mainland cotton accounts for less than 40% of the total cotton output in the whole country and the grade is low, the decline in domestic cotton prices will not be overnight."