Global Cotton Output Is Estimated At 25 Million 600 Thousand Tons In 2013/14.

< p > it is estimated that global cotton output will exceed consumption in fourth consecutive years in 2013/14.

In 2013/14, global cotton production was estimated at 25 million 600 thousand tons, consumption of 24 million tons, Global trade volume of 9 million tons, and ending inventory of 19 million 800 thousand tons.

From the end of 2010/11 to 2013/14, the world's total output has risen 11 million tons, and the world's final inventory has increased from 9 million 580 thousand tons to 19 million 810 thousand tons, or nearly doubled.

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In the past two years, the Chinese government has implemented a temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, and a large quantity of cotton has become P reserve cotton.

China's total final inventory is expected to be 9 million 400 thousand tons in 2012/13, with private enterprises holding about 1 million 600 thousand tons.

China's cotton consumption in 2012/13 is expected to be 8 million 300 thousand tons, which means that the total final inventory can be used for more than a year. Private stock can support more than two months, enough to meet the cotton market in 8/9 months before the new flower listing in 2013/14.

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In April this year, the Chinese government said that the cotton storage mechanism will continue in 2013/14, with the purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton, about $1.5 / pound.

By next March, China's cotton reserves are expected to reach 15 million tons, and the figure is expected to fall to 12 million tons by August next year.

Therefore, in the global end inventory of nearly 20 million tons in 2013/14, only 8 million tons were commercial inventories, and 6 million tons in countries outside China.

In view of tight inventory outside China, the 2013/14 A index is expected to increase from 88 cents / pound in 2012/13 to over $1.

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China's cotton output is expected to be unchanged from the previous year in < p > 2013/14; supported by favorable monsoon and expected output rise, the output of India cotton could increase by several hundred thousand tons this year. The output of US cotton is expected to decline, due to the dry weather in some cotton producing areas and the increase in the price of corn and soybeans. Cotton production in Brazil cotton, Uzbek cotton and other countries is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year.

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Less than 27 million tons of global textile enterprises in P > 2007/08, and 2013/14 is expected to be only 24 million tons.

By August this year, the price of polyester fiber in China was still 20 cents / pound higher than the A index, which greatly weakened the competitiveness of cotton in the fiber market.

As expected, the biggest drop in the use of textile enterprises is in China (which has reduced nearly 3 million tons since 2007/08).

In 2013/14, the consumption of textile enterprises in other countries is expected to exceed 15 million 800 thousand tons in 2007/08.

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The development trend of the global cotton industry in the next few years will largely depend on the relevant policies of the Chinese government (P).

Obviously, the existing cotton purchase and storage mode can not continue.

Once the government stops buying cotton reserves, cotton prices will drop.

If the acquisition is gradually reduced, cotton prices will remain low for many years, and cotton prices will drop rapidly if the takeover is stopped quickly.

Cotton industry has not been very good recently.

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