Operation And Future Forecast Of Chemical Fiber Industry In The First Half Year

< p > in the first half of this year, our country's < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > chemical fiber industry < /a > the overall operation quality has declined, the output growth has dropped significantly, the new capacity has returned rationally, but it is still in the channel of inertia growth. Some sub sectors are showing signs of recovery, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials has been further improved. However, the polyester polyester industry is constrained by the development of PX, and the industry profits are further pferred to the upstream PX industry.

In addition, the industry self-regulation effect is significant, and the contribution level of industry profits is further improved.

< /p >

< p > < strong > the basic operation of the industry is < /strong > < /p >.

< p > < strong > production: the growth rate of production dropped significantly < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1-6, China's chemical fiber output was 19 million 900 thousand tons, up 5.84% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 8.73 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, the largest variety of polyester production was 15 million 714 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 6.26% over the same period, accounting for 87.55% of the total output of synthetic fiber, accounting for 78.97% of the total output of chemical fiber.

< /p >

< p > < /p >.

< center > < img border= "0" alt= "" align= "center" src= "/uploadimages/201308/08/20130808095501_sj.JPG" / > /center >

< p > < /p >.

< p > > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > the growth of fiber demand is mainly supported by chemical fiber, so the production of chemical fiber has basically maintained a two digit growth rate in recent years.

The world economic crisis, which broke out in 2008, has slowed down the growth of China's chemical fiber production to less than 5%. In 2009, the chemical fiber industry recovered rapidly, and the output of chemical fiber in the next two years maintained a growth rate of 15%. However, due to the huge scale foundation of the chemical fiber industry, the growth rate of the chemical fiber industry is bound to decline.

< /p >

< p > < /p >.

< center > < img border= "0" alt= "" align= "center" src= "/uploadimages/201308/08/20130808095602_sj.JPG" / > /center >

< p > < /p >.

< p > the overall operating rate of the industry increased in the two quarter compared with the first quarter, especially in the spandex industry, but the start-up rate of the polyester industry was significantly lower than that of the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > < strong > Import: import of synthetic fiber raw materials decreased significantly < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1-6 months, China's synthetic fiber raw materials imported 6 million 901 thousand and 700 tons, down 20.07% from the same period last year.

Among them, the import volume of PTA and CPL dropped by nearly 50% respectively, which is due to the breakthrough development of raw materials in China.

The rapid development of China's viscose fiber industry has increased the demand for raw materials.

In 1-6 months, the import of 991 thousand and 900 tons of raw materials increased 10.62% compared with the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > strong > export: showing a small increase < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1-6 months, China exported 1 million 247 thousand and 600 tons of chemical fiber, a slight increase of 2.13% over the same period last year.

Sub varieties: polyester filament exports the largest amount, up to 585 thousand and 100 tons, accounting for 46.9% of the total export of chemical fiber; polyester staple fiber exports 329 thousand and 500 tons, accounting for 26.41% of total exports; spandex shows strong competitiveness and export volume increased by 21.88%.

< /p >

< p > 1-6 months, the main export markets of chemical fiber in China are Turkey, the United States, Pakistan, Vietnam, South Korea and Indonesia.

Among them, the proportion of exports to Turkey, the United States and Pakistan reached 11.37%, 10.41% and 9.58% respectively.

The number of chemical fibres exported to Vietnam has increased by 57.51%, accounting for 7.23% of China's total exports of chemical fibres, up 2.54 percentage points over the same period last year.

{page_break} < /p >

< p > < /p >.

< p > < strong > Market: prices of main varieties declined < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1-6 months, the prices of main chemical fiber varieties in China decreased by about 10%, of which MEG (internal disk) prices dropped the largest, reaching 20.59%.

The only increase in price is 40D spandex in East China, with a 6% increase.

< /p >

< p > strong > a href= < http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp > inventory < /a > pressure: < /strong > /p >

In the first quarter of P, China's chemical fiber industry has great pressure on inventory.

In April, with the arrival of the small peak season, most of the stocks of chemical fiber were digested and inventories declined.

Polyester staple fiber and nylon fiber inventory pressure is particularly prominent, spandex inventory dropped to low.

< /p >

< p > < strong > efficiency: the profit increased slightly and the amount of loss decreased slightly < /strong > < /p >

< p > 1-5 months, China's chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 6 billion 991 million yuan, up from the first quarter of the year to 6.16% in the first quarter of, while the deficit in the deficit companies also decreased by 4.22%, but the industry deficit expanded to 30.59%.

The total profit of polyester industry decreased by 34.74% compared with the same period last year, while the spandex industry went out for two years.

< /p >

Below P, the profit margins of polyester filament are reduced, the polyester staple fiber fluctuates under the profit and loss line, the nylon profit is relatively stable, and the spandex is turned into a profit, and viscose staple fiber is showing signs of recovery.

< /p >

< p > < strong > analysis of influencing factors < /strong > < /p >

In the first half of 2013, China's macro-economy did not continue the rebound trend at the end of 2012, but instead, there was an unexpected fall in P.

GDP grew by 7.6% over the first half of last year, down 0.2 percentage points from the first half of last year. In 5 and June, the growth rate of industrial added value on the above scale declined; in June, the PMI index of manufacturing industry fell to the edge of prosperity and decline, and the lowest figure in February was the lowest in February.

In addition to the factors affecting the macroeconomic downturn, there are unique factors that affect the operation of China's chemical fiber industry.

< /p >

The demand for < p > strong > peak season has a certain magnification < /strong > < /p >.

< p > from 2012-2013 years of load change of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, the start-up rate of China's chemical fiber industry is lower than that of 3 and April of last year. Although the "traditional peak season" is not as good as expected, the moderate recovery of terminal demand still exists, and the downstream start-up rate has gradually increased to 7. The data also indicate that the off-season July is not bad.

< /p >

< p > because of the rapid expansion and release of chemical fiber, especially polyester production capacity, the volume of chemical fiber fabrics of China Textile City (600790, Guba) is higher than that of previous years. In this year's industry's general cautious attitude, the characteristics of the light and busy season are fuzzy, so although the June has entered a low season in the traditional sense, the market volume can still be maintained at a fairly high level.

< /p >

< p > < /p >.

< center > < img border= "0" alt= "" align= "center" src= "/uploadimages/201308/08/20130808095639_sj.JPG" / > /center >

< p > < /p >.

P > P > in February and April this year, the crude oil market has been adjusted in depth by two waves. The decline was about 10%. It was once more than $90 / barrel. In June, it was affected by the continuing tension of the situation in June. The WTI crude oil broke above $one hundred, and the PX market formed a considerable bubble after last year's rise. So this year, the crude oil fell, the downstream polyester demand was weak and the financial market was weak, and it fell rapidly since the Spring Festival.

4-6 months remained stable.

< /p >

< p > < strong > cotton price support < /strong > < /p >

< p > cotton prices are stable at 19 thousand and 500 yuan / ton this year. Due to the triangular relationship between polyester, viscose and cotton, it plays a supporting role in the market of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber.

Polyester, short and sticky short prices fell, and cotton price difference further expanded, so that textile enterprises increased the use of short, short and short.

< /p >

< p > < strong > post market forecast < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > Market: < /strong > < /p >

< p > by the international tension, crude oil prices may remain high and volatile, but there is a loose expectation on the supply side. Therefore, the crude oil market is expected to have a slight downward trend.

The second half of the year is still the peak of the production capacity of chemical fiber, and the market competition will further intensify. Therefore, in the three quarter, the demand for high prices of the chemical fiber market will be higher in the traditional peak season and the high volatility of crude oil, but the adjustment will not be very large.

< /p >

< p > production: it is estimated that the annual output will be 40 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of about 7%.

< /p >

< p > exports: the estimated export volume is 2 million 800 thousand tons, an increase of about 15%.

< /p >

< p > economic efficiency: the expected profit is flat or slightly increased over the previous year.

< /p >