The Size Of The "Great Leap Forward" In The Shopping Center Is Expanding

< p > up to now, a total of 10 commercial real estate projects in Shanghai opened, rising 1 times, up 233.33% from the same period last year.

Among them, office buildings (including commercial and residential) opened 7 projects, while the ring rose 75%, while the year-on-year increase of 250%; shops, in August, opened 2 sets, the actual opening of 3 sets, with the ring up 200%.

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< p > in the face of the "great leap forward" of the shopping mall, which is becoming more and more popular in recent years in China, the authoritative department has given an astonishing number.

Recently, Guo Geping, President of China Chain Store Association, said that China's shopping center is expected to reach 4000 in 2015.

What is the scale of the 4000 cities? According to the calculation of 323 prefecture level cities in China, there will be more than 12 shopping centers in every prefecture level city, and the number of shopping centers has exceeded the support of urban businesses.

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< p > on the one hand, shopping centers continue to enter the market, the total volume is surplus, some new shopping centers are attracting difficulties. On the other hand, the commercial property of the core business circle is in short supply, the rent is high, and even excellent chain enterprises such as Starbucks are hard to bear.

Behind the contradiction between supply and demand, it highlights the structural imbalance of China's commercial real estate.

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< p > < strong > over development promotes vacancy rate < /strong > /p >

< p > > there are four shopping centers under construction in Gongyi, with an area of more than 100 thousand square meters, plus the original about 500000 square meter commercial complex. The shopping center of Gongyi will reach 1 million square meters, plus the number of other street shops, and the per capita commercial area of Gongyi will exceed two square meters.

This is a terrible number. "

Wu Jinhong, chairman of Henan Jin Hao Lai supermarket, said.

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< p > commercial area per capita is the index to match the business and population of a city. According to international practice, the per capita business area is 1.2 square meters.

The city of Gongyi is a county-level city affiliated to Zhengzhou, Henan.

Even for such a city, the per capita business area has greatly exceeded the commercial area needed by a developed city. China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "shopping mall" /a "great leap forward" expansion is evident.

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< p > World Union real estate [micro-blog] (12.76, 0.44, 3.57%) data monitoring shows that the 7 largest cities in China will have at least doubled the shopping center area to 87 million square meters in the next 5 years, of which Wuhan, Chongqing and Chengdu will increase by at least 1.5 times.

The absolute values of Beijing and Shanghai are over 14 million square meters.

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< p > over exploitation of commercial real estate has increased the risk of vacancy rate.

Data show that in 2012, the overall vacancy rate of shopping centres in China's big cities increased.

The average vacancy rate in second tier cities is 10.5%, up from 10.2% in 2011, while in the first tier cities, the vacancy rate has increased from 7.9% in 2011 to 8.4% now.

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< p > "industry depression", < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > retailer < /a > uncertainty on the future, causing its shop speed to slow down and expand to be conservative.

This situation has further exacerbated the vacancy rate of shops.

Wang Yongping, Secretary General of China commercial real estate alliance, said.

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< p > < strong > effective supply is insufficient and invalid supply is excessive. < /strong > < /p >

< p > on the one hand, China's shopping center has a total surplus phenomenon, and the vacancy rate remains high, resulting in the difficulty of attracting investment in the new shopping center.

On the other hand, the core business district property is in short supply, the rent is high, and many excellent chain enterprises are forced to evacuate.

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< p > not long ago, this newspaper reported exclusively the news that the mainland's first Starbucks was forced to evacuate China World Trade Center because of the high rent.

This reporter has learned that not only is the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp "first tier city" < /a > golden section of Beijing China World Trade Center, but also the business circles of Beijing sub commercial center and the mature business circles of the two or three line cities have all been forced to evacuate because of the high rent.

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< p > for Beijing, the average location of the shops that developers are looking for has exceeded 10 yuan / day / square meter.

"We are all working for landlords.

In recent years, the profits of the catering industry have continued to decline, and now less than 10%.

The rise in rents is a major factor in the decline in profits.

This figure is rising from the ratio of rent to sales.

In the past, rent accounted for only 6% to 7% of sales, and now new stores are generally 15%.

The developers mentioned above.

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"P > behind the contradiction between supply and demand highlights the structural imbalance of China's commercial real estate.

"Although the total volume of shopping centers in China is excessive, we should also note that some shopping centers with good location, strong operation capacity and better operation are still scarce.

It can be said that "effective supply and oversupply of surplus" are the current situation of shopping centers in China.

Du Hong, Deputy Secretary General of China's community business working committee, said.

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< p > "there are several types of commercial property in the field. One is the traditional commercial enterprises entering the commercial real estate. The typical ones are Huarun 10000, Wanda Group, red star, and so on. The other is capital led commercial real estate enterprises, such as Cade land, and the last one is pformed from other industries, which has no experience in commercial operation before."

Du Hong said.

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< p > in Du Hong's view, for the first type, because the enterprise has its own commercial brand and has experience in the operation of investment promotion, it can cultivate good shopping center projects; the second enterprises have the space of "tossing up" because of their strong capital support, and can also do well in one project; in the third case, there is often a lack of team, lack of experience and lack of long-term investment plan.

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< p > < strong > expansion appears polarization. < /strong > /p >

The situation reflected by Wu Jinhong P also illustrates this problem.

"Several shopping centers under construction in Gongyi are located in the urban fringe area, and the location is not very good.

From the background of the boss of the shopping center, there are those who engage in wholesale furniture and engage in meat business. In short, there is no experience in running the shopping center before.

Wu Jinhong told reporters.

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< p > a restaurant siting person feels that this kind of "effective supply shortage" and "oversupply of oversupply" bring about changes.

"In the cooperation between the two sides, the property owner is a party member, often in a strong position.

With the rapid development of shopping centers in recent years, the status of our brand has started to rise. Although it is Party B, the choice is much higher. "

The above said, "in the past, the number of shops and properties to choose is basically one to one ratio, and now a shop, often more than three shopping centers competing for you."

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< p > "in the case of a surplus of commercial real estate and a structural imbalance, there may be" polarization "in the future.

Wang Yongping told reporters.

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< p > "on the one hand, the real estate giants such as Huarun, Kade land and Wanda will become bigger and bigger, and the concentration of the industry will intensify. On the other hand, some developers who are short of market judgement, lack of solid capital and business operation experience will be increasingly sad.

It is difficult to manage investment and the latter is more difficult to manage.

Wang Yongping said.

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