Forecast: Market Situation Of Imported Cotton In 2013

< p > Henan TongZhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. is currently one of the largest cotton suppliers in China. It mainly buys cotton processing and cotton import and export trade, and expands its business to cotton < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > production, real estate development and warehousing and logistics industry.

Reporters recently interviewed Huang Hongyu, deputy general manager of Tongzhou cotton company, and invited him to analyze and predict the market situation of imported cotton in 2013.

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< p > Huang Hongyu thinks that the main body of China's textile cotton is self-supporting, but import is an important supplement.

In 2003~2010, China imported 2 million 300 thousand tons of cotton annually.

China's cotton imports reached 5 million 340 thousand tons in 2011/2012.

Cotton imports are estimated at 4 million 300 thousand tons in 2012/2013.

Cotton imports are estimated at 2 million 400 thousand tons in 2013/2014.

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< p > the situation of cotton market is closely related to the macro economic environment.

According to Huang Hongyu, from the macro economic situation, the four major economies show a weak trend of improvement except China, but there is still a possibility of recurrence in the good foundation.

Emerging economies, led by China, may be the biggest uncertainties affecting the global economic trend.

However, from the open position of the new government of China, it is necessary to maintain the level of China's economic growth and employment, and ensure that the price level does not exceed the ceiling. The government policy will operate within this range.

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< p > cotton consumption is hard to see in the next one or two years.

The weak growth has been replaced by Southeast Asian countries.

Pakistan's cotton demand remained between 2 million 150 thousand ~265 tons.

In addition, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries account for more than 40% of the world's cotton consumption.

Among them, the consumption of cotton in Bangladesh in 720 thousand ~82 million tons, Indonesia 450 thousand ~54 million tons, Vietnam 350 thousand ~50 tons, Thailand in 300 thousand ~37 million tons.

According to USDA, cotton consumption in the four countries will increase by 4%~8% in 2013/2014.

According to the USDA report, the global cotton consumption in is 23 million 380 thousand tons, and the consumption volume for 2013/2014 is estimated at 23 million 900 thousand tons, up 2.2% over the same period last year.

The growth of cotton consumption mainly came from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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< p > from the perspective of cotton supply, the total cotton planting area in the 2012/2013 area is 34 million 323 thousand hectares, and the output is 26 million 390 thousand tons, which is 2.3% less than that in 2011/2012.

2013/2014 cotton plantation area was 33 million 711 thousand hectares in the year of 2013/2014, 1.8% less than last year, and 25 million 690 thousand tons of production, a decrease of 2.7% over the previous year.

Output in the US and China has declined, especially in the new year of the United States. Cotton production has decreased by 22% over the previous year. The increase in output mainly came from India and South America.

In 2013, before the launch of new flower, from the resources available for export, it was mainly the new flower supply in the southern hemisphere and the remaining cotton resources in West Africa, Central Asia, the United States and India.

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< p > Central Asia is an important cotton export area in the world. The average annual export volume is about 1 million tons. In the 2012/2013, cotton production in Central Asia is 1 million 560 thousand tons, exports are 1 million 190 thousand tons, and domestic consumption is 490 thousand tons. It is estimated that in the year of 2013/2014, the output of Central Asia is 1 million 530 thousand tons, the export volume is 1 million 100 thousand tons, and the domestic consumption is 510 thousand tons.

Africa is also the main export area for cotton. Africa has 1 million 200 thousand tons of cotton output in 2012/2013, 1 million 50 thousand tons of exports, 240 thousand tons of domestic consumption and 480 thousand tons of final inventory.

In 2013/2014, cotton production in Africa is estimated to be 1 million 170 thousand tons, 240 thousand tons for consumption, 1 million 80 thousand tons for export, and 450 thousand tons for the end of the year.

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< p > Australia is the main force for pre market supply of new flowers in the northern hemisphere. According to the prediction of ABARES of Australian Agricultural Economic Bureau, the export volume of Australia cotton is about 1 million tons.

Australia cotton, which is likely to be concentrated in Hong Kong in 8 and September, is the most direct supplementary resource that textile companies can provide.

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< p > Huang Hongyu believes that in general, the resources available for export in the northern hemisphere are relatively limited before the new flower listing.

At the end of 2012/2013, the supply of cotton in foreign markets was relatively tight, which provided some support for the October international cotton price before the new flower listing.

However, the supply of 2013/2014 will be relatively loose after the new flower market in the northern hemisphere.

The global macro-economy is still in a weak state. Even if it has stabilized or rebounded slightly, the foundation of the recovery is still weak. There is still great uncertainty.

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< p > Huang Hongyu is expected to produce stable cotton production in the main producing country in 2013/2014, and the global inventory consumption ratio is at a high level.

Cotton production will change in 2014/2015, and the cotton price difference between inside and outside will gradually return to normal.

In the coming year, cotton prices are mainly weak, and there is no trend market, only short volatility.

A good grasp of stage fluctuations is the key to profitability.

For cotton enterprises, the first priority is policy and second is policy.

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< p > Huang Hongyu analysis shows that at present, the policy of 2013/2014 purchasing and storage has been set at 20400 yuan / ton.

What we need to pay attention to at present is to store and store in accordance with the new cotton standard. How many cotton meets the requirements for storage and purchase? And there is no conclusion on whether to purchase or store 2014/2015 in the year.

When will the new round of dumping and storage be launched? What price? Does the reserve quota policy continue? Does the general trade quota increase? Because of the uncertainty of the policy, the cotton enterprises should operate steadily and manage the risks well.

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< p > location varieties maintain characteristics < /p >

< p > -- an interview with Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Huafang group, "/p".

< p > Huafang group is a well-known large enterprise in the industry. It has many years of experience in purchasing and using imported cotton.

Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Huafang group, recently shared the experience of purchasing cotton imported from enterprises, and put forward suggestions on importing cotton operations with cotton enterprises.

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< p > Huafang group has been importing imported cotton since 2002. It has a history of more than 10 years, during which many countries used cotton.

Xiao Jingyao believes that the advantages of imported cotton are sufficient weight, simple paction and price advantage.

However, each country has its own characteristics, such as the United States and cotton do not have three silk, but we should pay attention to neps and short fiber index. India cotton can be spun strong, but more impurities. Brazil cotton has good color and short velvet.

In the use of imported cotton, Huafang is classified into several categories: dyed, light colored, bleached and extremely shallow according to its physical quality.

Generally speaking, American cotton and Australian cotton are more suitable for producing light colored yarns, while Uzbekistan cotton is suitable for producing dyed yarns.

When importing cotton, the impurities and short lint should be understood as early as possible, and imported cotton should be used according to its characteristics.

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< p > in recent years, cotton prices have fluctuated greatly because of the huge fluctuation of cotton prices. The import of many institutions has made the import cotton market more complicated and changeable, and the operational risk has increased.

According to Xiao Jingyao's strategy of importing cotton, different strategies should be adopted according to different market situations.

In the period of rising prices, we should lock in prices, which lock futures the fastest and most economical, and lock in physical occupancy funds and risk.

It is very important to choose reputable and strong traders.

We must make reasonable arrangements for funds and do what we can.

At the same time, we should pay attention to ensuring liquidity.

In the period of falling prices, we should find out the time of fall in time according to the speed of downstream pactions, orders and inventory.

We should choose futures hedging appropriately and hedge.

In the stable price period, we should stabilize production varieties, reduce inventory and increase logistics speed.

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< p > Xiao Jingyao believes that the biggest impact of the current policy of dumping, storing and storing is to make the market short of liquidity and domestic futures almost lose its function.

In view of the low cotton price at home and abroad and the low import quota of cotton general trade and the difficulty of importing cotton, he thinks that the quota of processing trade should be paid attention to at this time.

In addition, there are more cotton stocks in the recent bonded area, which will be lower than the prices of foreign cotton traders.

In order to solve the problem of imported cotton quotas, the establishment of processing plants in the bonded area has also become a way to break through trade barriers for some enterprises.

According to him, recently, seven or eight enterprises in the Zhangjiagang bonded area are building factories.

But he believes that the choice of this approach needs to guard against the risks associated with changes in policies.

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< p > Xiao Jingyao emphasized that in the selection of imported cotton, cotton enterprises should start with their own production needs, locate imported cotton varieties, and pay attention to maintaining their own brand characteristics.

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