Huge Changes In The Foreign Trade Situation, The Pros And Cons Are Complicated.

China's foreign trade situation has undergone profound changes in the first half of this year, but the overall impact of foreign trade changes on China's economy is "more advantages than disadvantages".

This is embodied in the following five aspects: first, the trade surplus has declined to a certain extent, which is in line with the requirements of this year's macroeconomic regulation; second, the trade structure change is in line with the requirements of the pformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade structure; third, the decrease in the trade surplus is conducive to reducing the trade friction between China and other countries; fourth, the trade surplus will cause greater pressure on some industries and enterprises; and fifth, the decrease in the trade surplus will also lead to a decline in the national welfare of our country.

From five aspects, the impact of the change of foreign trade on China's economy is generally speaking. Since the first half of the year, the total volume and structural change of China's trade have more advantages than the disadvantages.

First, the trade surplus has dropped to a certain extent, which is in line with the requirements of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control.

The decrease in trade surplus will, on the one hand, reduce the total demand in China at present and prevent economic growth from overheating to overheating. On the other hand, it can slow down the growth of foreign exchange reserves and money supply and help prevent obvious inflation.

Therefore, the reduction of the trade surplus is in line with the requirements of China's "macro control" focusing on "double protection" at the beginning of this year.

At the same time, promoting trade and balance of payments and promoting the coordinated development of internal and external economies are one of the tasks of China's macroeconomic regulation and control at this stage.

Secondly, the change of trade structure is in line with the requirements of pformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade structure.

On the one hand, on the one hand, from the perspective of trade product structure, the proportion of China's exports is decreasing rapidly, namely, "two high and one capital" and traditional labor intensive products, especially the "two high and one capital" product, which was further reduced on the basis of a substantial reduction last year, while the relatively fast growth is the relatively high volume of products with relatively high technology volume. This phenomenon of structural upgrading of the more obvious export products is in line with the requirements of upgrading China's foreign trade structure and changing the mode of foreign trade growth. The rapid growth of imports is the import of resources products and equipment, and is basically consistent with the direction of China's import structural adjustment.

On the other hand, from the perspective of trade, not only the growth rate of general trade exports exceeds the growth rate of export growth of processing trade, but also the growth rate of exports is faster than the growth rate of exports in the processing trade. This change shows that the continuous expansion of trade in the domestic industry has not only increased the profits of domestic enterprises, but also enhanced the driving effect on domestic economy.

Third, the decrease in trade surplus will help to reduce trade frictions between China and other countries.

Since China's trade surplus has been increasing for many years, especially in recent years, the trade surplus has become an important reason for the trade friction between China and some countries. The trade friction with the United States is the most serious.

This year, the decline of China's trade surplus, especially the decrease in the US trade surplus, will help to reduce trade frictions with other countries due to the surplus. The trade frictions caused by the surplus in the first half of this year have decreased.

Fourth, we also note that the decrease in trade surplus will cause greater pressure on certain industries and enterprises.

　　一是外向型程度較高勞動密集型產業，像紡織服裝、箱包、鞋類等行業所受沖擊會較大一些，這些行業由于就業人數較多，出口增速放緩將會引起一定的就業壓力；　　二是產品以出口為主的中小型企業，對政策、成本變動相對敏感，部分企業利潤下降較大甚至出現虧損，也有少數企業因此停產；　　三是加工貿易企業，出受加工貿易政策調整、勞動力成本增加等因素外，人民幣升值對加工貿易企業影響更大，因此這些企業所受影響程度大于一般貿易企業，這是造成加工貿易增速下降的主要原因；　　四是一些“成本驅動型”的外資企業，因國內成本上升過快而經營困難甚至撤資，還有部分外資企業擔心未來國內政策變化對企業的影響程度不斷加大，開始調整其在華投資戰略，將新增投資轉移到東南亞等成本更低的地區，但大部分在我國的企業并未停產，

Therefore, this pfer is not an external pfer of existing capacity, but an investment strategy arrangement to diversify risks.

Fifth, resulting in a decline in our national welfare.

From the relationship between the volume and amount of trade, we can see that most of the unit prices of China's exports have increased rapidly, while the prices of imports have increased rapidly, and most of the unit prices of products have been rising.

Under such circumstances, the terms of trade in China have deteriorated and the contribution of trade to China's economic welfare has decreased.

At the same time, excessive import prices will cause imported inflation and increase the pressure of rising prices.

We propose to take the five major foreign trade policies to promote the development of foreign trade. In view of the changes and impacts of China's foreign trade situation in the first half of this year, we suggest that we should straighten out or adjust China's foreign trade policies in the following five aspects, and promote the positive impact of trade on China's economic growth.

First, adjust the foreign trade policy flexibly.

Although the decrease in trade surplus in the first half of this year is in line with China's macro-control requirements this year, the current economic situation at home and abroad is more complicated, and the macroeconomic uncertainty in the second half of this year is increasing.

In the second half of the year, export growth may be further slowed down by domestic and foreign factors. However, affected by local government succession and post disaster reconstruction, domestic demand growth is likely to continue at a higher level. Therefore, price increases will encounter greater pressure in the coming months.

Under such circumstances, we should flexibly adjust our foreign trade policies and avoid excessive fluctuations in the economy.

If the domestic demand is higher and the price pressure is too high, we should reduce the trade surplus as the policy direction of trade regulation. If the surplus is declining, and the domestic demand is also insufficient, we should adopt a certain policy of increasing the trade surplus to avoid an excessive economic downturn.

Second, on the basis of relative stability, the export policy can be finely adjusted according to the situation.

In the second half of the year, considering the impact of Olympic Games and earthquakes, the rate of decline in export growth should not be too large in order to maintain social stability and the ability of export enterprises to bear.

Therefore, in addition to the exchange rate policy, other policies, such as processing trade policy and export tax rebate policy, should be kept relatively stable, or structural fine-tuning should be made according to the actual situation. In particular, some export products that are much lower in line with China's industrial policies can be appropriately increased in some export tax rebate rates.

Third, temporary trade intervention measures can be taken for some products.

In order to ensure the balance of domestic supply and demand and control the rising speed of price level, temporary trade intervention can be taken on two categories of products. One is that products that are domestic shortages after earthquake disasters or for post disaster reconstruction products can be appropriately expanded into the government through government procurement. Meanwhile, temporary export tariffs are applied to restrict the export of such products. Two, the agricultural products (000061, stock bars) and other primary products that are short of domestic or insufficient reserves and have a great impact on the price level should be temporarily reduced import tariffs to increase imports and restrict exports.

Fourth, maintain the level of RMB exchange rate basically stable.

In the second half of this year, in the second half of the year, there are great uncertainties in the domestic and international environment and trade environment. We should pay attention to the rhythm of RMB exchange rate appreciation, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate level, and prevent the negative impact of the excessive appreciation of the RMB and the decline of external demand on the superposition of exports.

At the same time, we should pay close attention to the adjustment of the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies such as the euro and yen, especially the new changes in the international monetary exchange rate caused by the bottoming out of the US dollar exchange rate, and further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism based on a basket of currencies, and rationally determine the RMB parity relationship with different currencies.

Fifth, pay attention to the employment problem caused by the decrease of export in some industries.

At present, the most influential ones in export are labor-intensive industries, such as clothing and toys. If these industries drop more, they will not only reduce the ability of these industries to absorb employment, but also bring more unemployed people, which is not conducive to social stability, and it will take some time for the labor force to pfer from the export industry to other sectors.

For this reason, on the one hand, we should strengthen the policy coordination of labor intensive export industries, avoid excessive policy concentration and lead to excessive labor force in the short term. On the other hand, we should cooperate with the policy of promoting employment pfer, so that the labor force pferred from export industries can be pferred to other industries as soon as possible.