The State Council: The Global Macroeconomic Situation Will Be Better Next Year Than This Year

The General Administration of Customs of China announced the foreign trade situation in the first three quarters. In the first three quarters of this year, the total value of imports and exports was 3.06 trillion US dollars, up 7.7% year on year after deducting exchange rate factors. Among them, exports totaled US $1.61 trillion, up 8%; Imports reached US $1.45 trillion, up 7.3%; The trade surplus was US $169.4 billion, an increase of 14.4%.

It is worth mentioning that in September, the total import and export value was 356.08 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.3% year on year after deducting the exchange rate factor. Among them, exports reached US $185.64 billion, down 0.3%; Imports reached US $170.44 billion, up 7.4%; The trade surplus was US $15.2 billion, down 44.7%.

Yesterday (October 13), in response to the negative growth of exports in September, industry insiders told the Daily Economic News that this data was not surprising, because the third quarter was a traditional slack season, and the export data in September was not low, and it had already stood at the $180 billion threshold. The negative growth was mainly due to the large base in the same period last year, the slow economic recovery in Europe and the United States Currency depreciation in emerging markets and other factors.

In addition, the reporter learned from insiders that the State Council recently held a forum on the situation of foreign trade, and analyzed that the import and export goals this year are expected to "ensure eight", and the situation will be better next year.

Li Jian, a researcher from the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, once told reporters that as long as the export volume stood at the threshold of 180 billion dollars, it was a good state. According to the foreign trade enterprises interviewed by the reporter, the weak consumption in Europe and the United States has kept orders in a state of swallowing water.

According to Zhang Yongqiang, the general manager of Shanghai Weisha Industrial Co., Ltd., since September, the company's export orders are not as large as in previous years. The economy of Europe and the United States is recovering, but consumption is not strong. The latest quarter was originally the sales order season before Christmas, but the expectation was not so strong. "Sales in the third quarter were 20% lower than in the second quarter."

According to the customs statistics, the import and export growth rate in the first three quarters was 7.7%. Although it is far from the goal of 8%, the growth rate in the first quarter was 13.5%, and that in the second quarter was 4.3%. With the fourth quarter, the trend is positive, the average growth rate is expected to reach 8%.

Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the General Statistics Department, predicted that China's exports would continue to develop steadily in the next two to three months.

The above-mentioned enterprise personage interviewed by the reporter also said that they were ready to bet on the fourth quarter. Generally, exports in the fourth quarter reflect the initial state of exports in the second year. The analysis of the Foreign Trade Forum of the State Council also believes that the global macroeconomic situation next year is better than this year, and there are tail lifting factors at the end of the year, so it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade in the fourth quarter will not be lower than that in the third quarter.