China'S Technology And External Factors Drive Down The Future Export Or Steady Development

After an obvious rebound for two consecutive months, China's foreign trade has returned to the trend of "warm at first and cold again".

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 12th, China's import and export in the third quarter totaled 1062.94 billion US dollars, up 6% year on year, up from 4.3% in the second quarter.

However, what exceeded the consensus expectation was that China's total import and export value in September was 356.08 billion US dollars, up 3.3% year on year. Compared with the growth rate of 7.8% and 7.1% in July and August, the growth rate dropped significantly. Among them, exports reached US $185.64 billion, down 0.3%; Imports reached US $170.44 billion, up 7.4%.

"China's import and export have generally shown a low and stable trend. The decline of import and export growth in September was due to factors such as a large base in the same period last year."

As for the current development of foreign trade, Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 12th that it is expected that exports will continue to develop steadily in the next two to three months. The trend of foreign trade will be stable throughout the year.

Technology and external factors drive down exports

After both import and export growth rates were negative in June, the growth rate of foreign trade in July and August was significantly warmer. However, this momentum did not last. In September, export growth fell back to negative again, which also surprised the market.

Market participants generally attributed the sharp drop in export growth in September to the high base last year.

Liu Ligang (microblog), chief economist of ANZ Greater China, said that the sluggish performance of trade in September may be largely affected by festival factors

In addition to technical factors, the external environment is also considered to be the reason for the sluggish export in September. Chen Hufei, a researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that the fluctuation of China's export data in September was mainly due to the negative impact of the US fiscal impasse and QE exit expectations on the global trade market. However, he believes that although the uncertainty brought by the US fiscal policy to the market deserves continuous attention, these negative factors are generally short-term "event shocks".

In contrast, imports continued to grow steadily in September. It is worth noting that China's iron ore imports hit a record high in September, which also shows that steel demand is still relatively stable driven by real estate and cars.

Export or steady development in the future

Although the decline of foreign trade data in September was unexpected, on the whole, the foreign trade data in the third quarter showed a momentum of improvement and was significantly higher than that in the second quarter.

Zheng Yuesheng said that the positive factors that promote the development of China's foreign trade have begun to increase recently, and the domestic macroeconomic stability has led to the increase of bulk commodity imports; The overall environment of foreign economy has improved, and the pace of "going global" has accelerated to drive the steady growth of exports; Since July, China has introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade, and the benefits have begun to emerge, all of which are the reasons for the overall improvement of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the third quarter.

At the same time, he stressed that in addition to the steady growth rate, the new progress of China's foreign trade import and export in terms of the diversification of trade partners, the optimization and upgrading of product structure, and the coordinated promotion of regional layout should also be noted.

A series of surveys also confirmed the recovery of market confidence. According to the online questionnaire survey carried out by the customs on nearly 2000 enterprises at the end of September, China's export manager index in September was 37.8, 1.7 higher than that in August, and rose month on month for two consecutive months, indicating that China's exports will stabilize.

The survey data also shows that the enterprises reflecting the year-on-year decrease in the amount of new orders decreased by 3.1 percentage points compared with August, and the enterprises that are not optimistic about the export situation in the next 2-3 months decreased by 2.7 percentage points compared with last month.

Zheng Yuesheng said: "Judging from the questionnaire survey of enterprises, it is expected that China's exports will continue to develop steadily in the next two to three months."

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, also said on several occasions that the foreign trade target of 8% for the whole year this year is likely to be achieved.