The Degree Of Dependence On Foreign Trade Is Declining, And Domestic And Foreign Demand Should Form A Positive Interaction

Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs, said recently that China's import and export in September reached 356.08 billion US dollars, up 3.3% year on year. Among them, exports reached US $185.64 billion, down 0.3%; Imports reached US $170.44 billion, up 7.4%. At the same time, China's dependence on foreign trade in the first half of this year was 50.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year. This shows that China's economic development has changed from being driven by external demand to being driven by domestic demand. Experts believe that the current international economic environment is still unstable, and it is difficult to maintain sustained and healthy economic development by relying excessively on external demand. In the future, while stabilizing external demand, we should focus on expanding domestic demand, form a positive interaction between expanding domestic demand and expanding external demand, further transform the mode of economic development, promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, and create an upgraded version of China's economy.

The dependence on foreign trade is declining

"Although China's domestic economy has been operating steadily and making progress in stability since this year, it still faces certain downward pressure. Developed economies have shown signs of recovery, but it is still not stable enough, and the international economic situation is still complex." Zheng Yuesheng said that in the face of such a situation, China's overall growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports has stabilized at a low level, The quality and efficiency of foreign trade development have also been improved, and positive progress has been made in the transformation and restructuring of foreign trade.

Experts said that excessive dependence on external demand is one of the manifestations of imbalance and disharmony in China's economic development. Although the export-oriented development model of "capital comes from abroad and products are sold abroad" is of positive significance in the take-off stage of China's economy, it also leads to the continuous increase of China's external dependence and prominent imbalance between domestic and foreign economies. The data shows that in the first five years after China's accession to the WTO in 2001, China's foreign trade developed rapidly and its dependence on foreign trade continued to rise. In 2003, China's dependence on foreign trade exceeded 50% for the first time, and after reaching 67% in 2006, it fell steadily, but basically above 50%.

Analysts pointed out that since the 2008 financial crisis, world economic growth has been sluggish, global demand has been weak, at the same time, trade protectionism has risen significantly, the international trade environment has gradually deteriorated, and China's economic development model of excessive dependence on external demand needs to be changed.

Expand domestic demand and improve development space

　　 "In the first 20 years after the reform and opening up, China's trade dependence has increased rapidly. The main reason is that China's economy and foreign trade were still small at that time. Large scale export development can not only solve our foreign exchange gap constraints, improve macroeconomic stability, but also fully exploit the advantages of economies of scale with the help of vast overseas markets. In this case, the growth rate of foreign trade is much higher than the growth rate of GDP 。” Mei Xinyu (microblog), a researcher of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, told our reporter that in the first 10 years of the new century, the world economy grew at a high speed, and China's trade dependence continued to increase rapidly, indicating that we seized the opportunity to make full use of this period of high growth to quickly improve our position in the international economic system to the maximum extent.

"Now it is different. We are already the world's largest foreign trade country, and our share of the world market is already high. It is unrealistic to continue to increase our share substantially. It is impossible to maintain high growth in the external market when the external market is low, as it was when the market share was small." Mei Xinyu said that the growth of the external world economy was significantly reduced due to the impact of the international financial crisis, However, China's domestic economy has kept stable operation, which has resulted in the reduction of dependence on foreign trade.

Experts believe that from the perspective of international experience, the development of major countries is based on domestic demand. As the largest emerging market country in the world, China has huge demand potential. As long as we fully grasp the relationship between domestic demand and foreign demand, effectively implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, actively adjust the economic structure, and at the same time adhere to expanding opening up, improve the quality and efficiency of foreign trade, and achieve equal attention to domestic and foreign demand, we can greatly improve the space and power of China's economic development.

Internal and external needs should form a positive interaction

"Macroscopically, the economic development of a country is driven by consumption, investment and export. By comparison, China has attached great importance to export-oriented exports and investment driven in recent years." Meng Xianzhong, director of the Institute of Strategic Management of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that boosting domestic demand is a problem to improve the economic quality of the country, It will directly affect whether the upgraded version of China's economy can be realized.

"Expanding domestic demand is the strategic basis for China's development and the largest structural adjustment. In the past few years, we have successfully responded to the impact of the international financial crisis by relying on domestic demand." Premier Li Keqiang said that China's expansion of domestic demand is carried out under the conditions of opening up. We must focus on the global allocation of resources and factors, and make more full use of the international and domestic markets and resources, Form a benign interaction between expanding domestic demand and expanding external demand.

Experts suggest that efforts should be made to cultivate new advantages of China's open economy. While consolidating the traditional markets of developed countries, we should attach importance to developing the markets of developing countries; While expanding exports and attracting foreign investment, we should attach importance to increasing imports and foreign investment cooperation to achieve diversified and balanced development. At the same time, it is also necessary to expand the export of self owned brands and high value-added products, promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, develop service trade, enhance enterprises' international operation ability, and improve the quality and level of open economy development.