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Gu Shengzu: Current Macroeconomic Trends And Changes In The Clothing Industry

2013/10/23 13:40:00 40

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Macroeconomics Clothing Industry Clothing

Gu Shengzu: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen! The topic of my speech is "current macroeconomic trends and < a target=" _blank "href=" http://www.91se91.com/ "> clothing /a > industry changes.

I would like to start with the first question, the current macroeconomic situation.

I think the current economic situation presents "two sides".

Both sides are facing downward pressure, but there are some positive factors.

The employment situation is generally better than GDP. In the middle of employment, the employment of university graduates is difficult for migrant workers.

This is a very serious problem.

Manufacturing is difficult and service industry is better.

The growth of private investment is faster than that of the whole society.

The overseas investment of enterprises is better than the import and export of commodities.

Now the situation is better than expected.

P, like Japan, from the perspective of GDP and GDP, we surpass Japan, second only to the United States, and the world's second.

But our GNP is worse.

This shows that Japan has a large amount of overseas investment, and the overseas investment of enterprises can make GNP bigger.

Before P, the central government's financial revenue was too fast, and local revenue grew faster.

In terms of consumption, online consumption is much faster than that of physical stores.

The macro is better than the microcosmic, so in the micro aspect, especially the entity type enterprises, especially the entity small and micro enterprises, it is not very good at present.

we can take a look at this picture.

This table shows that the GDP growth in 2010 is 10.3%, down to 9.2% in 2011, 7.8% in 2012, and 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013, so we can see that the whole macro-economy is going downhill.

we see that GDP is generally downward.

The fourth quarter of last year was 7.9%, the 7.7% in the first quarter of this year and 7.5% in the second quarter.

But the second half is expected to pick up slowly.

But the current unemployment rate remains stable.

At P level, the service sector is better than the manufacturing sector, and services are showing good momentum.

Private fixed asset investment and fixed asset investment are growing faster.

The blue line below is the investment in fixed assets of the whole society, because our clothing industry is private enterprise.

from the structure point of view, China's imports and exports showed an upward trend in the first half of the year.

In terms of finance, we see that in the first half of this year, the central government increased by 1.5%, which is much lower than the local fiscal revenue of 13.5%. This is the comparison of the central government revenue and the local fiscal revenue growth. We can see from the comparison between the blue line and the red line.

consumption chain, consumption aspect, the consumption of network is much faster than the consumption of physical stores.

The growth of Internet consumption in 2013 will be over 50%, and it will be very fast.

So, as I mentioned just now, we need to analyze the micro level, macro and micro enterprise level, and the enterprise level is facing unprecedented difficulties.

Microcosmic and macroscopical are different.

Solid small and micro businesses are expensive.

to Zhejiang research, Zhejiang's small and micro enterprises, to the bank can not borrow money, can only go to private financing.

But the interest rate on private financing is 30%.

It is hard work, heavy tax burden, high cost and thin profit.

These are all problems.

the difficulties of enterprise survival, financing difficulties and financing.

It is hard to recruit, unable to retain, and unable to afford.

Profitability is difficult, cost is high, taxes and fees are high.

Investment is hard and innovation is difficult.

Now we have entered the era of high cost.

The "four rate", "three gold" and "two price" nine factors superimpose the cost of enterprises.

ten years ago, we talked about China being cheap. Now China is no longer cheap.

a large number of private capital is limited to the condition of speculation in the real economy.

This is the "roadmap" for asset speculation this year. In the first stage, real estate market is booming and prices are rising.

Fried agricultural products, "garlic you ruthless", "beans you play" "Ginger your army".

Stir up money and copy works of art.

now the pressure of manufacturing industry is increasing. The average wage of Vietnam's manufacturing industry is about 1000 yuan, 600 yuan in India, 2500-3000 yuan in the southern coastal area of China, and the cost of labor in China is much higher than that in neighboring countries.

At present, China's coastal area has risen to about 3000 yuan.

So now some companies are joking that businesses are either leaving their jobs or running away from home.

We should attach great importance to this phenomenon.

I remember some time ago in a forum, some scholars said that we should not worry about others. Some entrepreneurs should not worry.

It is inevitable that our entrepreneurs, overseas investment and overseas pfer of industries are inevitable.

But a large number of entrepreneurs must be highly valued.

Because this will lead to the hollowing out of the industry.

P, like Japan, has many investments in China, but they do not have a large number of entrepreneurs to emigrate.

So I appeal to entrepreneurs who go out to leave their roots in China.

At the same time, our government should solve the difficulties of financing, financing, labor shortage, high cost and heavy taxes and fees.

It calls on local entrepreneurs to return to the relaxed business environment and safe legal environment.

there is a report that 2011 of China's private wealth reports, 27% of the mainland owners of personal assets over 100 million, have emigrated.

Last year, 80% of the US investment immigration cards were given to Chinese people.

Last year, the Chinese had spent 9 billion dollars buying houses in the United States.

The third wave of immigration is coming.

The first round of emigration was in the 70s of last century. We should look at this problem rationally.

overseas expansion of enterprisers and overseas pfer of industries are inevitable phenomena of globalization, but we must attach great importance to this phenomenon.

This is my first question.

From a macro perspective, our economy, especially our macro economy, employment and GDP, is good as a whole, but there are still some problems and difficulties on the microscale.

Second, I want to talk about speeding up structural adjustment in the throes of pain. Now we are in a period of structural adjustment. I conclude that in the adjustment of economic structure, there are "four pains", including environmental pollution, manufacturing capacity, real estate bubble, and financial leverage.

Nowadays, many enterprises, such as iron and steel, have serious excess capacity. Some enterprises have such problems.

Now the housing price is too high, which will affect the development of the real economy.

now Wenzhou is engaged in economic reform. The root of Wenzhou lies in the hollowing out of industry, and a large number of people are unwilling to do business.

The real estate and money that I have just talked about are all usurious loans.

So in the real estate sector, the bubble is particularly serious now.

Our current government, especially local governments, has a high debt ratio and a high debt ratio.

just mentioned the serious overcapacity of steel and serious pollution at the same time.

So we have to pform in the throes of pain. We must hold back the present "pains" and further seek survival and development.

The introduction of "dense currency" into the real economy.

In the face of loose money and credit, incremental funds will still play a limited role in promoting economic growth, and even increase the risk of financial system.

, so we must grow steadily on the one hand and adjust the structure on the other hand. This is a difficult problem.

If you want to grow steadily, you must first find the engine of growth and find new engines of growth.

Then the third thing I want to talk about is that consumption increases in the region between the three carriages of economic growth.

We see that in 2008, GDP was 9%, investment was 4.2%, consumption was 4%, and exports were 0.8%.

2009, GDP8.7% invested 8%, consumed 4.6%, exported -3.9%.

In 2010, GDP10.3% invested 5.6%, consumed 3.9%, and exported 0.8%.

In 2011, GDP9.2% invested 5%, consumed 4.7% and exported -0.5%.

In the first half of this year, GDP7.6% will invest 4.3%, spend 4.1% and export 0.1%.

in macroeconomic policy, our macroeconomic regulation and control should not only benefit the present but also benefit the long run.

We now have governments, especially local governments, who tend to value the current rather than the long term.

So the next ten years in China will be the ten year of upgrading China's economy through pformation and upgrading.

So now in society, especially overseas, we discuss "Li Keqiang economics".

What is "Li Keqiang economics"? Without financial stimulation, finance should be leveraged and structural reform should be carried out at the same time.

I think this induction and interpretation is very practical.

I think "Li Keqiang economics is the most important meaning" is a new direction, and the pformation is to create an upgraded version of the economy.

The new engine will make good use of new "four modernizations" domestic demand such as urbanization, "maximum potential" and innovation driven.

The new power will release the "biggest dividend" with reform.

China's reform in the past thirty years, the first ten years is the reform of rural agriculture, the second ten years are the reform of state-owned enterprises, the third ten year is the accession to WTO, and the reform is forced to open up.

Next ten years, the reform of factor market and urbanization.

Premier Li Keqiang has three very important points: urbanization is the "greatest potential" of domestic demand.

The impact of eating, wearing, using, living and travelling on the consumption of migrant workers is very large.

Therefore, urbanization is the "greatest potential" of domestic demand.

Reform is the development of "the biggest dividend", and the service industry is the "maximum accommodating device" for employment.

Now the service industry is on the rise, and many people in the manufacturing industry are absorbed by the service industry.

, so we say that the most important thing of Premier Li Keqiang's new deal is to benefit both the present and the long term.

For example, in terms of urbanization, shantytowns, railway construction, urban infrastructure and public services should be promoted to control urban pollution.

The service industry has become a new engine for sustainable development of the economy and society, the largest employment absorptive device.

The State Council has issued or is designating policy issues such as information consumption, pension services, health services, environmental protection services and cultural creativity.

In terms of financial reform, interest rate reform, liberalization of private capital, the establishment of finance, big trees and grass, tax reform in terms of Finance and taxation.

Administrative system and market access are also being reformed.

Financial, oil, electricity, telecommunications, energy development and other relaxed market access.

China's imports will reach US $10 trillion in the next five years.

We will accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote sustained and stable consumption growth.

Efforts to cultivate information consumption into a new trend of consumption after real estate.

Not long ago, according to the Ministry of environmental protection and other departments, China will invest 1 trillion and 700 billion in environmental pollution control.

At the same time, we gradually plan to govern the phenomenon of "Metropolis watching the sea".

Beijing introduced 130 billion yuan of social capital to promote urban construction.

Temporarily exempt some small and micro enterprises from value-added tax and business tax.

Since August 1st this year, a small and micro enterprise with a monthly sales of not more than twenty thousand yuan has been given a tax relief policy.

China's urbanization needs to be changed by two yuan structure, and the two yuan structure among residents in the city will first pform shanty towns.

There are no slums in China, like Brazil to do the Olympic Games. The most important thing is to manage the slums. Otherwise, the Olympic Games will be held in a very terrible social security environment, so many people will not want to go.

Therefore, the pformation of slums and shantytowns is a very difficult task in developing countries.

The phenomenon of slums in the developing countries, less than P, gives us some enlightenment. This is a financial battle to control slums.

In 2009, a blockbuster of life and growth of slums in India was born "Slumdog Millionaire".

The two element of human structure is about the three dimensional pformation of urbanization and half urbanization.

For example, a nanny from Anhui came to work in Beijing, first of all, from a rural to a city.

, so the core of urbanization is man. The problem of urbanization is the rapid urbanization of land and the semi urbanization of man.

Two hundred million the phenomenon of "employment in cities and household registration in rural areas" appears.

Migrant workers are now working in cities, but their roots are still in rural areas.

Although our urbanization rate has reached 52%, the proportion of urban population in the total population is only 35%.

the biggest pain is sixty million left behind children.

This is the general secretary during the Spring Festival in Beijing to see the children of migrant workers, to give children a schoolbag.

This shows that we are now going to let the children of migrant workers enjoy compulsory education, and at the same time adjust the population flow and reduce the left behind population.

new urbanization will lead to the development of stream of people, logistics and money flow.

Urbanization has created huge investment and consumption demand, and the pfer of farmers' population to cities has produced a huge "multiplier effect".

If the rate is 1%-1.2% per year, China's urbanization rate will increase to more than 60% by 2020,

I would like to talk briefly about the environmental changes and pformation and upgrading of the garment industry.

China's clothing industry is now the largest garment producer, exporter and consumer country.

The clothing industry has become the traditional pillar industry and important livelihood industry of our national economy.

The clothing industry has played a very important role in prospering the market and increasing the income of farmers.

China's garment industry has entered a period of deep adjustment. I sum up several aspects, such as slowing consumption, market downturn, inventory reporting, rising costs and increasing taxes and fees.

Under the double attack, homogenization competition is serious, while efficiency is declining and losses are serious.

This has led some enterprises to adopt the way of dumping.

These problems lead to a deep adjustment period for our garment industry.

from the macroeconomic perspective, the increase in revenue is slowing down, clothing consumption has also slowed down, external environment has deteriorated, labor costs have risen, raw material costs have risen, rental costs have risen, exchange rates have risen, or competition from external brands has led to deterioration of external environment.

The enterprise's own problems lack the management of the whole value chain, and the brand is not structured enough.

the cost is rising. The foreign trade bank report predicts that in the next four years, the cost of labor in China will catch up with the United States, catch up with Europe in five years, and catch up with Japan in seven years.

China's manufacturing industry will soon lose competitiveness due to the strong rise in production costs.

In 2009, Nike took the lead in shutting down its only Chinese factory, a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/", "shoes less than /a".

the overall growth rate of the garment industry is slowing down.

In particular, the rising cost of manpower has a great impact on the garment industry.

The cost of labor in China is much higher than that in many Southeast Asian countries.

The increase of rental cost has great influence on the garment industry.

RMB appreciation, RMB appreciation of 1% per cent, cotton < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a >, gross profit margins of wool textile are decreasing.

how to pform and upgrade the garment industry?

The so-called "pformation" strengthens supply chain management, promotes industrial clustering, strengthens information management, and develops e-commerce.

We should strengthen brand building and promote industrial upgrading.

The so-called "pfer", we have to pfer to the central and western regions and Southeast Asia.

For example, 95% of Japanese clothing is not produced in Japan.

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At present, supply chain competition has become the main competition mode in twenty-first Century. The competition in twenty-first Century is no longer the competition between enterprises and enterprises, but the competition among supply chains. P

Profit growth is an important source in the economic pformation. "The third profit source" is the concept put forward by Professor Japan's early rice field in 1970.

It is very important for us to find new profit points.

a book is "world is flat". This is a book recommended by Bill Gates to all decision makers and employees.

So supply chain management is very important.

Supply chain involves logistics chain, information chain and value chain.

In the supply chain, the particularity of our garment industry highlights the importance of the supply chain.

our clothing industry has many varieties, small batch, short cycle, too many raw materials, and complex process.

Therefore, the supply chain can effectively enhance the competitiveness of the garment industry in four aspects, one is to reduce the cost of enterprises, to improve the market responsiveness, to improve the level of customer service, and to increase corporate profits and market share.

this is the advantage of Bosideng's annular supply chain, which can greatly shorten its operation cycle.

90% of our goods are in the logistics links such as warehousing, pportation and packaging. Only 10% of the manufacturing time actually creates product value. Improving the supply chain logistics level can effectively improve the efficiency of the supply chain and increase the value of the supply chain.

there are many cases here. Taiping bird has set up its own professional logistics subsidiary. This is a very good example to explore the all-round development of the supply chain.

Like the Quanzhou, the clothing companies do not produce clothing, outsourcing all the manufacturing processes, and concentrate on buying.

In the past three years, the company's sales increased by 30% annually.

to promote the development of industrial cluster based on supply chain, industrial cluster is very important. I will not elaborate on it here.

This is a schematic map of the national textile industry base.

A sketch map of textile and clothing exports from January to August this year in Quanzhou.

Supply chain management is the source of making third profits, saving logistics costs, and developing e-commerce is a good way to improve brand awareness by online marketing.

the development of e-commerce is three high and three new, creating sunrise industries.

With the rapid development of e-commerce, China will become the largest online shopping market in the world.

The advantage of channel cost on e-commerce is obvious, 10 percentage points lower than offline.

Nowadays, 80% of the online shoppers are buying clothes and < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes and hats < /a >.

the impact of our current clothing network sales, the traditional sales advantage is no longer obvious.

Offline channel procurement price advantage weakened.

The era of big data in e-commerce has arrived.

Ma Yun talked about the two major opportunities for the future financial industry, one of which is Internet finance.

Big data and cloud computing technology is the core competitiveness of Ali finance.

Hu Xiaoming, financial director of Ali, said that data is the primary productive force.

in the commercial application of data, like the 18 week innovation cycle of excellent underwear, first, there is massive data analysis. ZARA can pform consumer demand into data, which can improve efficiency.

A large number of data analysis of fan data center can effectively reduce operating costs.

strengthening brand management and promoting industrial upgrading. Twenty-first Century is the era of brand. Larry of the American brand value association once said that owning a market is more important than having a factory, and the only way to have a market is to have a dominant brand.

So brand is very important.

It is not easy for a brand to involve a brand culture and make a product a brand, but it is not easy for a brand to become a household name.

It is even more difficult for a brand to become a way for customers to realize their dreams.

brand takes time to accumulate. The pformation of garment industry is inseparable from the support of talents. The pformation and innovation of garment industry requires a group of enterprisers who understand clothes and understand business. They can not do without a clothing target= _blank, href=, http://www.91se91.com/, designer, /a, and clothing experts.

> therefore, my conclusion is that China's economic pformation is facing six opportunities for development. Urbanization of population and urbanization will create huge investment demand and consumption demand.

Economic service and upgrading of consumption will create enormous room for development of public services, consumer services and productive services.

Develop low carbonization, high-end industry, enterprise informatization and business internationalization.

my conclusion is that the apparel industry is facing a deep adjustment of high inventory, high cost, low profit and over homogeneous competition.

Transformation and upgrading need to seek new sources of profit, differentiation strategy based on low cost strategy, and promote the informationization and high-end of enterprises, and do well in brand management.