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LV Counterfeits Are Very Rampant, And There Is No Growth In Chinese Market.

2013/10/28 19:22:00 24

Less than P, since last year, the development of LVMH group has been staggering, accounting for 50% of the group's LV earnings.

Although smart Arnott realized a lot of problems with LV a year ago, he started a series of corrective measures: upgrading product lines, refurbishing stores, suspending the expansion speed, going to logo in the Chinese market, raising prices in the Japanese market, and so on, but it seems to have little effect.

Despite the popularity of high-end new products, it has little impact on overall performance.

LV has become old.

2013, it is undoubtedly an eventful year for < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > LV < /a >.

Soul Marc Jacobs just left, the morale of the LV team plunged, quarterly reports came out, and the capital market also fell. In the 5 trading days as of 21 days, the LVMH group's share price dropped by nearly 4%.

Cheng also LV, defeated LV /p >

recently, LVMH group released its three quarter financial report in fiscal year 2013.

Due to the unexpected performance of the quarter, LVMH group only mentioned 20 billion 700 million euros in the first nine months of this year, up 4.3% from the same period last year, and the natural growth rate was 8% (excluding exchange rate fluctuations).

according to the results of the financial report, the group's revenue in the three quarter was about US $9 billion 480 million, compared with 9 billion 300 million US dollars in the same period last year, or only 1.7%, which is lower than the 7 billion 240 million euros expected in the capital market, and also significantly lower than the 7% in the second quarter and 3% in the first quarter.

from the different product categories of the group, fashion and leather products dominated by LV, Fendi and C e line are the worst this year, down 3.8% compared with 2012.

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the leather based LVMH group, especially the main brand LV, although in the official earnings report, LV will continue to implement the strategic pformation, adhere to the high quality product line and reasonable shop layout, but insiders believe that the performance of LV may decline more seriously.

the performance of perfume and cosmetics department is also not ideal, compared with the same period last year, it dropped by 2.1%. The Department takes Dior and Guerlain as the core.

Although the watch and jewelry sector is also negative growth, it fell 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, better than the previous quarter, and fell 3.8% last quarter.

What P comforted Arnott was the wine and spirits sector, which rose by 2.6% in the quarter, driven by strong demand from Asia and the US.

From a purely growth perspective, the growth rate of the Sephora (DFS) 12.8% is strong, and its revenue is about $2 billion 800 million, but the growth rate of the 16.4% quarter and 18.4% of the first two quarters is also the worst performance this year.

brand value decline

counterfeit goods overflow; China has no growth > /strong > /p >

Jean-Jacques Guiony, chief financial officer of P LVMH, blamed the main reason for the decline in the conference call on the price raising strategy of LV in Japan. In addition, he said that the new high-end female bag Capucine and W recently released by LV were popular, but had not yet had a real impact on sales; and the sales of these high-end product lines were limited by the shortage of high quality leather supplies.

in addition, he admitted that the sales of "LV" in China (flattish) were flat (no growth), but benefited from overseas tourism shopping, the overall sales of Chinese consumers still had a "median" growth.

Although the sales and sales of clocks and jewellery in China have improved, fashion and leather goods are still weak.

The group's business in Europe is still difficult, especially sales of perfume and cosmetics.

From the perspective of market demand, Guiony speaks frankly that the market demand of some of LVMH's brands is weak.

price rise in Japan is the main reason for the decline in performance and the argument that it is constrained by the shortage of leather. Zhou Ting, President of the Institute of wealth and quality research, believes that these two points are not valid.

Zhou Ting believes that the share of the Japanese market in the global market is decreasing from the market capacity, and because of the long economic downturn, the overall environment of the luxury market is decreasing.

Japan's global market share in LV is also declining. The proportion of sales in the Japanese market is not enough to affect LV's global sales performance.

financial weekly newspaper reporter found that in 2012, LVMH group reported that Japanese sales accounted for only 8% of the global sales of LVMH group, while Japan accounted for 28% of Asia, including China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and became the second largest market after Europe.

And the price raising strategy is also applied to European and Asian markets, rather than simply raising the price of LV in the Japanese market.

Similarly, the reason for the shortage of leather supplies is also unfounded. Zhou Ting said that with the current technology and supply of goods, it can completely meet the needs of brand production, but it only depends on whether they are willing to produce.

"Luxury brands have a common practice to control production links artificially and make scarce supply of products to maintain high prices." Zhou Ting explains that "hunger marketing", which is similar to "limited edition" in luxury brands, is common.

In the view of Zhou Ting, the decline of LV brand value causes the high-end consumers and ordinary consumers to abandon it at the same time, which is the main reason for the decline of P performance.

"P >" our research found that the biggest harm to LV has two points. First, LV's fake products have already achieved the full coverage of channels in China, including purchasing agents, e-commerce providers, distribution agents and so on.

The spread of counterfeit goods has led high-end consumers to abandon it quickly. Our survey found that 94% of the rich said they would not consume the most counterfeit brand, and LV was among them.

For ordinary consumers, they do not want to buy real LV.

From the point of view of cost performance, they prefer to go to Taobao or buy high imitation goods.

Zhou Ting said.

both high-end consumers and the general public are gradually abandoning LV. Although there are new consumers buying LV, Zhou Ting believes that the quantity is far less than abandoning LV, which is an important reason for the decline of LV performance.

in fact, LV has long been aware of the problem of counterfeit goods and has taken some measures.

In October, LV signed a memorandum of understanding with Taobao.

In order to avoid counterfeit LV products on Taobao, the reminder and withdrawal system will be launched.

but in the eyes of the industry, it seems to be a public relations show.

Zhou Ting bluntly said that the counterfeit goods of large luxury goods have been flooded, especially the fake goods of LV have been covered by all channels.

Recently, the Shanghai business department has found 61 cases of selling and selling fake goods in Shaanxi Road south of Huaihailu Road. It seems to be a case of LV, PRADA, CHANEL and other a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > counterfeit luxury brands < /a > more than 5000 pieces.

an insider told financial weekly newspaper that dealers or agents began selling fake products in pursuit of profits.

In a physical shop, luxury salesmen are also "watching the dishes". They want to buy genuine products and buy products displayed directly in the window.

LVMH group focus shifted /p >

or abandoning LV to find new growth point /p >

in the face of LV's dismal earnings performance, LVMH management has always stressed that the pformation of LV will take a year and a half to straighten out.

But from the performance of financial reports, it has little effect.

"P >" carefully observe the LVMH group's move this year, it has bought new brands, and has invested in the fragrance industry, including a large number of investment in the liquor industry, indicating that it has realized that its core growth point has been on the decline. It needs new growth points to make up for the loss of the entire group's earnings caused by the slippage of LV performance.

Zhou Ting said.

although the LVMH group's earnings report has never released a single brand performance alone, it is estimated by industry insiders that LV sales amount to about 7 billion 300 million euros, contributing more than half of the operating profit. The growth of the other more than 60 brands in the group is hard to offset the impact of this core brand growth.

recently, LVMH's Marc Jacobs sales amounted to US $1 billion, but the growth point was excluded because Marc Jacobs has been established independently for three years.

Therefore, finding new growth points has become a major concern for Arnott. Judging from the acquisition performance of LVMH group this year, Arnott's "thirst for talent" can be seen, especially after the loss of two members: John Galliano and Marc Jacobs.

in September this year, Arnott continued to hold a new designer brand Nicholas Kirkwood with a thunderbolt. He took part in J.W. Anderson and took the latter as the creative director of the famous Spanish leather brand Loewe.

It has been regrets that competitors who have been coveted for so long. The war of looting in the luxury sector seems to be getting hotter.

Zhou Ting believes that the future competition of luxury brands will be concentrated on four aspects: the first is to control the production capacity, that is, the integration ability of the upstream and downstream industries.

This is the core competition point, which ensures the market's right to speak. Two, the best way to control talents is to buy designer brand first and then incorporate designer into it. Three, control the channel, including agents, dealers, otter Les, etc., the brand will gradually eliminate counterfeit goods, recover agency power, control profits, and design reasonable product and price system in the electricity supplier channel.

Four is to control customers, improve service levels, enhance customer viscosity.

in the competition for talents, the rich and generous aone is not stingy, and he is good at cultivating and maximally using designer, just like the previous John Galliano and Marc Jacobs.

The two have not only served as the design director of DIOR and LV, but also played a role in the LVMH group. Arnott also owns two brands of the same name.

This time, spare no effort to acquire new designer brand is undoubtedly to reinvigorate the power of the group by designers.

in terms of controlling production capacity, though not as positive as Chanel and Hermes, Arnott is not stint.

This year, Arnott bought the world's largest cashmere maker and the largest wool buyer Loro Piana80% for 2 billion euros. The valuation is equivalent to 19 times that of EBITDA in 2013, which is much higher than the average level of the luxury goods industry.

Arnott, a born businessman in the construction industry, is a real businessman with a keen sense of smell. He never limits his vision to a single field. P

Especially in this year's LVMH group's non core business seems to have gained a lot.

In June, Arnott defeated her rival PRADA and bought a majority stake in Cova, a nearly 200 year old cafe in Milan, Italy.

Competitors speculate that LVMH will use Cova's window to promote its brand of porcelain tableware.

if this is just a small test for Arnott in the fast moving industry, Arnott's masterpiece in the high-end hotel is reverie. Maybe the "high-end hotel" will become the next group of LVMH group in the future.

August this year, Arnott bought a boutique resort hotel in the Caribbean Sea Saint Bart Island: Hotel St. Barth Islede France.

It is reported that the island is popular with celebrities and is a secret resort for European celebrities.

Previously, LVMH's hotel management company has two The Inn Boutique in France: Cheval Blanc Hotel (White Horse Hotel) and White1921 hotel.

but Arnott's passion for high-end hotels seems far from being stopped.

It is reported that LVMH is planning to open third resort hotels in Maldives: Randheli Resort, which is scheduled to open in November this year; the development process of the Cheval Blanc Hotel Paris of the fourth hotels is postponed to 2015 - the pformation from the old department store La Samaritaine to the future; the The Inn Boutique will also be developed in Egypt and Oman.

"now is the best time to sell LV" /p >

in Zhou Ting's view, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > LVMH < /a > seems to be squeezing the final surplus value brought by LV to the group.

P has always been LV supporting LVMH group's half sky. LVMH group seems to rely too much on LV's growth to maintain its brilliant performance.

In the promotion, overrun with LV as the main hit, resulting in the popularity of LV with the popularity of the whole brand value.

Zhou Ting thinks that Arnott's strategy of manipulating DIOR and LV is obviously different from that of early entry into China's DIOR.

DIOR is more "reserved". The starting point of promotion is mainly to maintain brand reputation, and shops are not blindly expanding.

"now is the best time to sell the brand, while the LV brand value is decreasing rapidly.

Now the sale is still at a high point. In a year or two, the brand will become worthless and will not sell if it wants to sell. "

Zhou Ting's language is amazing.

in this year's luxury industry, "mergers" and "sales" become the key words.

LVMH group's old rival Kering group and the peak group are selling brands continuously.

Kering group has sold the catalogue and mail purchase group Redcats's children's clothing and home department Cyrillus and Vertbaudet catalogue mail order business early this year, as well as Sweden's home textile and clothing brand Ellos and Jotex.

In October, the interim Bank of Italy was commissioned to deal with the sale of its Italy shoe luxury brand Sergio Rossi.

On the 22 day, another news came from Reuters that Kering group had to promise to reinvest 300 million euros to attract the acquirer in the loss of catalogues and Internet retail companies in order to get rid of the last La Redoute.

Similarly, the P group is also busy selling its poor brands. In October, its brand French leather Lancel finally welcomed buyers, and private equity Change Capital Partners and Hongkong Swire Group all expressed their intention to Lancel.

According to Reuters, the Chlo insider will be sold next year.

only LVMH group has no brand plan this year.

However, judging from the performance of the capital market, the stock price of LVMH group also appears to be in a state of lethargy. This year it rose by only 5%, much lower than the main competitor's share price increase: Richemont 27%, Swatch 26%, Hermes and Kering all 18%.