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Return Of Capital To US Stock Opportunities And Bubble Coexistence

2013/11/11 21:26:00 22

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funds return to the United States /p >

The most important logic of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > investment > /a > America is not the strong recovery of the US economy, but because the prospects for other markets seem to be even more bleak.

After the economic crisis, the only market that can generate hope is the United States, even though its economic recovery is quite fragile.

After finding this sad fact, the world's capital returned to the United States, making the United States the most active market this year.

as of November 3rd, the S & P index rose 23.52% this year, the NASDAQ index rose 29.89% this year, and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 19.17% this year.

since March 5th this year, the Dow has broken through the record of 5 and a half years, and the S & P index has reached the top of the market in March 28th.

Compared with the lows in March 2009, the US stock market rose more than 100%.

So far, there has not been a real callback.

The bubble theory is also very popular.

"people continue to overestimate the risks of the US economy and greatly underestimate the risks of emerging markets."

Richard Bernstein3, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, said in an interview with the famous Barron weekly a month ago.

After that, the Fed remained unchanged in its QE policy while the US stock market rose further.

Richard Bernstein indicated that he was not optimistic about the reasons why the emerging a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > market < /a > the reasons for China's credit growth were worse and worse, and the fundamentals of Chinese companies were also poor.

The problem of money supply in India is also becoming more and more serious.

"The leverage of Chinese companies is almost the highest in the world, and their return on investment is getting lower and lower, and the growth efficiency of credit has been getting lower and lower.

This is not a healthy growth story. We expect too much.

In the fourth quarter of 2012, nearly 60% of emerging market companies reported less than expected earnings performance, compared with the United States, which is only 28%.

Mr. P, Asia strategist at Goldman Sachs, has similar views.

In a recent forum, he expressed the negative attitude of Goldman Sachs to emerging markets: "we feel that the emerging markets in the past decade or so have been very successful. There are five major factors that have led to the growth of the successful BRICs. At present, 70% of the incremental growth comes from BRICs, and we feel that they are at a peak for some time to come."

"P >" the marked rise in commodity prices has led to the prosperity of the emerging market countries dominated by commodity exports.

But we judge that commodity prices will remain moderate for some time to come, or even remain relatively stable for some time.

Another problem is deleveraging. After the Asian financial turmoil, many emerging markets are making great efforts in deleveraging. They try to reduce external debt and external financing needs and increase their foreign exchange reserves, so the emerging market is stronger than in the 90s, but the external balance sheet is difficult to further improve.

he also said that inflation in the emerging market in the 90s of last century was staggering, but inflation dropped significantly after 2000.

Obviously, inflation continues to decline.

At present, low interest rates in developed countries are worrying how emerging markets face rising interest rates in developed countries. When interest rates are rising in the US, funds will flow from emerging markets to developed countries, thus raising the financing costs of emerging markets.

overall, the prospects for emerging markets are worrying and negative factors are accumulating.

Global capital flows back to the US will be difficult to reverse for a long time.

an optimistic recovery

"Goldman Sachs forecasts 1.6% of US economic growth this year and 2.9% next year.

Globally, this is very high and is relatively high for the United States in recent years. "

"The overall judgement of the US economy is that GDP will rebound significantly next year, and it is predictable," he said.

"as for quantitative easing, we feel that the United States will begin to reduce the scale of buying bonds around March next year. The full withdrawal of quantitative easing will be in 2015.

The Fed will not take the initiative to sell its bonds, but naturally it will expire. The real balance of the Fed's balance sheet may shrink until 2016.

At this point, we are more inclined to Dove than the market expectations, Goldman Sachs expects the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in 2016, and the market is expected to be in the second half of 2015.

Bei said that the US economy is gradually getting through the most difficult period.

On the one hand, the drag on the public sector will gradually decrease.

Last year, the contribution of the US public sector to the US economy was negative. The contribution of the private sector and the contribution of the ordinary people rose significantly.

The important reason is that the United States has implemented some tax increases and fiscal expenditure, and the two party automatic tax reduction mechanism.

This situation will gradually improve with the gradual normalization. By 2014, this part of the drag will be very small.

As long as the growth of the private sector exists, it is enough to sustain the recovery of the US economy.

on the other hand, the housing vacancy rate dropped from 3% of the financial tsunami to less than 2%, and the overall trend was gradually downward.

At the same time, the new housing construction data that investors have attached great importance to has risen since 2012, and has picked up slightly from the bottom in 2013.

"P," said Bei Chen Chen. "From the beginning of 2013, we can see that the annual increase of US housing prices by 3% is a goal that can be achieved.

In the past 12 months, cities such as San Francisco, Detroit and Atlanta have gone up most of the time, and other places have increased by 10%, such as New York.

Compared to 2000, San Francisco's housing price rose by 70% in 2000, though this figure is also high, but it is not so high compared with many emerging markets.

From the price point of view, the US real estate does not exist.

but there is a hidden worry about unemployment rate. At present, the employment situation in the United States is still relatively weak.

"The unemployment rate in the United States is actually lower than the actual figure.

But as the economy improves and wages go up, people entering the job market outside the job market will slow down the rate of unemployment in the US.

Therefore, the United States may take a relatively long time to reach the threshold set by the Federal Reserve.

Even at the threshold of 6.5% unemployment rate, the Fed does not necessarily have to raise interest rates.

It can be said that the current unemployment rate is underestimated, which has been expressed in some Fed statements.

Beckham said.

another worry is the debt ceiling.

There are 3 points to pay attention to in the future.

The first is whether the US Senate and house of Representatives can reach agreement on next year's budget in December 13th this year.

In the past few years, they have not reached an agreement, even if they do not reach an agreement, the market impact is limited.

They still follow the established budget of the past, and the market expectations are very low.

two is January 15th next year. If they fail to reach an agreement this time, will the US government stop again as before? It is estimated that there is little possibility for the two parties to shut down the government. The possibility of reducing the deficit is very great.

three is next March, February next year February the US "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "debt" /a "has reached the upper limit. If the US Treasury has its own spare cash, it can hold around March.

Without raising the debt ceiling, there will be a default.

But in fact, the probability of default is very low.

Republicans will be more cautious when approaching elections.

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avoid technology stocks /p >

the simplest way to share American economic growth is securities investment.

But after a wave of rise, how to choose investment targets is obviously very important.

This year, the S & P 500 index and the NASDAQ index have gained a lot of P.

Take the S & P 500 as an example, its industry distribution is relatively average, the highest proportion of the industry is information technology, and medicine and high technology industries occupy a higher proportion.

The leading technology sector is the only sector that surpasses the general trend of profit margins.

This means that if the profit margins of the technology industry decline, the market will be a great blow.

So some people think that the performance of technology stocks has reached its peak.

but from the valuation point of view, the market as a whole is still in a reasonable area of valuation.

At present, the dynamic P / E ratio of the S & P 500 in the US is 15 times, which is the historical mean. It is not particularly high nor particularly low.

so overall, the opportunities in the US market are also structural.

This year, standard & Poor's performance is not bad, but in fact, the better performance is growth stocks.

In the first half of this year, the value share market began to rise. In the second half of this year, the US economy began to recover more strongly. Funds also began to favor growth stocks, especially technology stocks.

In the case of "P", it may be more feasible to focus on some smaller plates.

Goldman Sachs, for example, specifically recommended investors to focus on financial sector and industrial sector.

First, the valuation of these two plates is now the average in history or lower than the historical average.

two is that the two plates have a high leverage ratio for economic recovery in history, and the US economic recovery will have obvious positive correlation with the profits of industry and finance.

three is that the two plates are most relevant to the us a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the economic < /a >, which is relatively less affected by the world economy, and is also affected by the price of raw materials and commodities in the world.

It can benefit from recovery and less drag from other markets.

investment idea

The simplest way to invest in the US market is, of course, to participate in the P fund.

Index funds can consider the S & P index, which covers a large number of financial and industrial stocks.

Second, active American stock funds may be selected among large growth equity funds, medium-sized stock funds and small stock funds. Specifically, we can refer to the website of Morningstar Hongkong, which can be bought in Hongkong market.

after the rise of the stock market, it may be a safe strategy to choose the US bond fund.

Before the Fed has yet to raise interest rates, bond funds are still one of the best options for stabilizing returns, and are very suitable for prudent investors.

If we consider the possible appreciation of the US dollar or the possible depreciation of the RMB, it will be a cost-effective option to invest in bond funds.

another way of thinking is to invest in stocks.

For Chinese investors, the familiar consumer stocks or the Chinese concept stocks are better choices.

The mass consumer brands that we may encounter in our daily life, such as the latest popular fashion brand Michael Kors, are listed on the NYSE.

The secret of Vitoria, a familiar underwear brand, is also a listed company. If it is optimistic about its growth potential, it will be relatively stable in the medium to long term.

China's concept stocks are dominated by Internet Co. Most of the China Internet Corporation listed in the US is the industry leader, representing one of the new directions of China's economy.

Although stock prices fluctuate occasionally, there is still something worth exploring.

For example, the good momentum of the development of good video, search Baidu and the new tourism website as "where to go".

These companies that are closely related to life are good investments.

Of course, the premise is to intervene at the right price.