The Impact Of RMB Appreciation On Foreign Trade

Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has even reached a new high, and a large number of foreign trade enterprises are deeply disturbed by it. P

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< p > "before the dollar weakened, the depreciation rate in October reached 4%, and the appreciation of RMB too quickly was passive."

Ding Zhijie, Dean of Finance and economics of the University of foreign trade and economics, told Xiaobian.

He believes that the trend of RMB appreciation will still exist in the year, "should remain within 6, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate is also constantly strengthening".

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< p > Liu Dong, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market department, expects that the RMB will maintain an appreciation trend in the year, and the spot rate will fluctuate between 6.05 and 6.10.

He further analyzed that, after entering next year, it is expected that the approximate rate of RMB will continue to maintain a slow appreciation trend, but the two-way fluctuation pressure will be more obvious than this year. Monetary policy will strive to maintain the exchange rate to maintain order and stability.

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< p > Jiang Shu, financial analyst of Industrial Bank, expects that with the development of the domestic situation in the United States next year and the opening of the US withdrawal from the QE process, it will effectively lift the US dollar index and help relieve the pressure of RMB appreciation.

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Tan Yaling, President of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi will be smaller and smaller. "The RMB has continued to appreciate for 8 years against the US dollar, during which only about half a year is in a less obvious devaluation state. At the same time, the world economy has experienced 5 rounds of ups and down in three rounds, so the appreciation of the RMB has not been sustainable". P

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< p > < strong > who is the main reason behind "behind the scenes" < /strong > /p >

< p > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_p.asp" > RMB exchange rate > /a > whether to continue to "rise" or to keep a low profile. Expert analysis indicates that the main determinant is the economic fundamentals at home and abroad in the coming period.

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< p > for the international market, it is the performance of the US dollar that can justification the appreciation of the RMB.

"Since the three quarter, the signs of RMB's reference to a basket of currencies are more obvious, especially the impact of the US dollar."

Ding Zhijie said that in the next few years, the time frame for us to withdraw from quantitative easing will blur the trend of the US dollar directly, and then pmit it to the RMB exchange rate. This means that if the US dollar is not restricted in the short term, it can not rebound strongly and carry out the low price consolidation.

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Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications (P), also said that under the dual influence of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and the steady operation of China's economy, and the pressure of the US current account deficit rather than the US dollar, the appreciation pressure of RMB in the short term is still more significant.

But considering the adverse effects of rapid appreciation on exports and the uncertainty of the Fed's policy, there is limited room for continued appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > at the same time, from the domestic fundamentals, GDP experienced a rebound in the third quarter after two consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, China's economic growth has picked up to 7.8% in the third quarter of this year, and its growth rate was 7.7% in the first three quarters, which is better than 7.5% of the government's expected target.

It is widely expected that China's GDP growth rate will continue to rise in the four quarter.

"The recovery of China's economy reflects the effect of economic structural adjustment, and the economic fundamentals have been gradually recognized by the society. Naturally, it has created room for the appreciation of RMB since the three quarter.

This is an important foundation for supporting the tough performance of the RMB market. "

Ding Zhijie said, but this does not mean that the fourth quarter of the economy continues to warm up, the RMB exchange rate will also maintain a rapid appreciation as early as the momentum. "After the economy stabilizes, the RMB exchange rate will gradually become more balanced.

The driving force of domestic economic growth is unlikely to directly lead to an excessive appreciation of the renminbi. "

He said.

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"P" is different from the above two factors, and Tan Yaling pays more attention to the boost factor of speculative funds: "China's economic indicators are good and bad, and there is no state of the so-called total stability, so this round of RMB appreciation is very strange."

On the one hand, the recent depreciation of the US dollar makes the relative appreciation of the RMB, on the other hand, it is speculative speculation of foreign capital, and there is a big arbitrage space in China, whether interest rate or exchange rate.

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< p > < strong > many measures are opportune for exchange rate fluctuation < /strong > /p >

< p > "RMB exchange rate is in the trend of appreciation, especially in a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp > import trade < /a >.

Ding Zhijie said that because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the price of imported products is lower, which is conducive to the expansion of imports, especially the import prices of energy sources such as oil and resources, such as iron ore, copper and nickel.

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< p > "but we must avoid excessive appreciation and rapid appreciation to increase the cost of export enterprises."

Ding Zhijie further said that the reason for avoiding excessive appreciation is that the appreciation of the renminbi will make the prices of Chinese exports higher and lower the competitive edge of prices, thus reducing exports.

In the export enterprises, especially the resource-based industries, the impact will be greater.

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< p > for foreign trade enterprises to avoid the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the operation, Ding Zhijie told our reporter: "we should make more use of this long-term exchange rate instrument.

Avoid exchange rate risk and achieve the purpose of maintaining value and increasing value.

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< p > for example, an export enterprise is expected to receive 1 million dollars of foreign importers 6 months later. In order to prevent the RMB from fluctuating significantly, enterprises can lock 6.2000 according to the 6 month forward settlement price of the inquiry day.

6 months maturity date, no matter how the spot exchange rate changes on the day, enterprises can complete foreign exchange trading in accordance with 6.2000, sell 1 million dollars, buy 6 million 200 thousand yuan.

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< p > "our export enterprises do not use too many long-term Forex sales. Data show that the long-term settlement and sale volume accounts for more than 10% of the total trade volume. This is also one of the reasons why the import and export trade is more vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations."

Ding Zhijie said.

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< p > in fact, the forward selling and selling business of major commercial banks in China is constantly improving.

Taking the forward sale and sale business launched by CCB Beijing branch as an example, customers can negotiate a long-term forward settlement and sale contract with the bank. After the expiration, the two parties will handle the foreign exchange settlement or sale in accordance with the currency, amount and exchange rate specified in the forward settlement and sale contract.

It is understood that after maturity, convertible currencies include US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, euro, pound sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Singapore dollar and so on.

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< p > except for forward sale and sale, export business < a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > invoice < /a > financing is currently a popular financial product welcomed by domestic enterprises.

On the condition that the exporter sells goods to the importer by credit sale and pfers the receivable credit to the bank, the bank shall give the exporter a recourse of short-term financing in accordance with a certain proportion of the export commercial invoice value.

Under normal circumstances, domestic enterprises need 1 to 3 months to receive overseas remittance.

Compared with other products, export commercial invoice financing requires lower credit level, lower cost and higher efficiency.

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< p > according to the different ways of collecting money, the products applicable by enterprises are also different.

Besides these two common ways, there are factoring businesses.

It is also known as collection and guarantee. It is a request for the exporter to take the risk responsibility of the third party in order to avoid the risk of foreign exchange in the international trade.

However, this requires the cooperation of overseas banks or other intermediaries, and the cost of implementation is relatively high.

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