Depth Analysis Of Cotton Throwing And Storage Policy Cotton Enterprises Still Need To Rely On Self-Reliance

< p > the long-standing sale policy of national cotton reserves was officially announced on the 27 th.

The main contents of the State Reserve sell-off policy are as follows: 1. The storage of cotton has been put into operation from November 28th to August 31st next year (the storage time is as long as 9 months); 2, the import quota is not tied up; 3, the reserve reserve price is: the standard level is 18000 yuan / ton, the cotton in the 2011 year is first sold in 1-7 months of this year, the public inspection is carried out according to the original national standard, the other is carried out according to the new national standard; 4, the target object is confined to the textile cotton enterprise; 5, the supervision on < < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107105 > > cotton ring < /a > is increased.

< /p >

< p > the interpretation of this policy is mainly in the following aspects: < /p >

< p > < strong > 1, China's dumping and storage policy will make the outer market empty, < /strong > /p >

< p > China's dumping and storage will last for 9 months, that is, in the whole new year of the year, textile enterprises need not worry about the shortage of cotton resources. At present, China's stock of storage is as high as nearly 10 million tons, which is enough for domestic cotton consumption for more than a year. Moreover, the sale will not sell the import quotas, and the state will have a strong desire to go out and store, and the demand for foreign cotton will go down sharply.

Under the background of fourth consecutive years of oversupply of cotton in the world, this will bring more bad pressure to foreign cotton, especially for India cotton which has substantially increased production in the new year.

The weakening of foreign cotton prices will drive the price of foreign yarn to drop, and cheap foreign yarn will also impact domestic downstream market in turn, and further suppress domestic demand for cotton. It is estimated that the import of cotton yarn will remain high this year.

< /p >

< p > in addition, from China's dumping price, the dumping price of China's national reserve is set at 18000 yuan / ton, which is less than 83 cents / pound (that is, the total tariff import is less than 18000 yuan / ton). Even if the import quota is not available in 2014, it can also import 40% full customs duties, because the risk of import enterprises is relatively controllable under the condition that the price of SM grade cotton is less than 18000 yuan / ton.

Therefore, when the price of the ICE disk falls to about 70-75 cents, the price of the outer cotton quotation will be below 83 cents / lb, which will be a better purchasing opportunity for Chinese cotton enterprises and traders.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 2, dumping and storage increase domestic supply and suppress spot market price < /strong > /p >

< p > this reserve is not limited, and the duration is longer. As long as the market needs, the state reserve stocks will continue to flow into the domestic market. The digestion of state reserve stocks is the first step to achieve the marketization of the cotton industry.

There will be no tight supply in the domestic market this year. Sufficient supply will suppress market prices.

And the domestic cotton spot price 3128B cotton price at 19640 yuan / ton, far higher than the 18000 yuan / ton throw store price, lint spot price will gradually move toward the reserve price close.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 3, throwing storage material is difficult to change < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107107" > futures market < /a > field register warehouse receipts low condition < /strong > /p >

< p > up to November 27th, domestic cotton storage and storage totaled 2 million 870 thousand tons, down from 3 million 310 thousand tons in the same period last year.

China's cotton output in 2013 is expected to decrease by 12.3% (from 930 thousand tons) to 6 million 678 thousand tons over the previous year.

It is estimated that the storage capacity will reach about 5000000 tons this year, accounting for about 80% of the total output.

The purchase and storage will make the registered warehouse receipts in the futures market limited. As of November 27th, cotton registered warehouse receipts were 175, far lower than the 562 in the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > although the throwing and storing cotton can be used for delivery in the futures market, according to the definition of the validity period of the cotton standard warehouse receipt, the registered cotton warehouse is registered as a standard warehouse receipt for N, and is valid until the last working day of March N+2.

That is to say, 2011 cotton is to be cancelled in March 29, 2013, and the standard warehouse receipt registered in 2012 will be cancelled in March 31, 2014.

Due to the large storage capacity in 2012/13, the total storage capacity of cotton was 6 million 340 thousand tons. In the first half of this year, only about 1000000 tons of cotton were sold out of the warehouse in the first half of this year. Therefore, it is estimated that the cotton throwing cotton in China is mainly produced in 2011-2012, and the cotton will be sold in the first place in 2011, and the quantity of new cotton will be less in the year of 2011.

Corresponding to the futures market, the January contract, due to the fact that the cotton production in the State Reserve 2012 has not yet been out of stock or the quantity of the warehouse is less, is still relatively low in the registered warehouse receipts. The May contract and the September contract signed warehouse receipt are mainly concerned about the number of new cotton output in 2013. At present, it is not optimistic, especially in May. Therefore, the low volume of registered warehouse receipts will continue to perplex the domestic cotton futures market this year, limit the space for its downlink, and even do not rule out the possibility of forcing a warehouse.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 4, price reduction and storage will improve the operation of textile enterprises limited < /strong > < /p >

< p > the standard bid price of the throwing cotton store dropped to 18000 yuan / ton, which was in line with the market expectation. Compared with the reserve price of 20400 yuan / ton, there was a price difference of 2400 yuan, which was 1000 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous year's 19000 yuan / ton. However, because the sale was not matched with quotas this year, the dumping price was basically the same as that of last year.

For 9 months, the enterprises have plenty of sources of raw materials. At present, the domestic textile enterprises are in poor condition, the sales of cotton yarn are sluggish, the funds are tight, coupled with the unoptimistic mood of the textile market in the future and the quality of the cotton production out of the market in the 2011 year, the enthusiasm of the enterprises to participate in the auction is expected to be low, and the strategy of random use will be adopted. The volume will not be very high.

< /p >

< p > throwing storage has reduced the cost of raw materials for textile enterprises, but the purchase of textile products from downstream enterprises has been priced accordingly. Moreover, due to the no sale quota, China's imports have weakened, and the weakening of foreign cotton prices will make the impact of foreign yarn on the domestic market still larger, so the improvement of the textile industry will still be very limited.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 5, storage and storage, double track operation < /strong > < /p >

< p > the purchase price of this year is 20400 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of seed cotton is more than 4.3-4.5 yuan / Jin, the price of cotton seed is 1.1 yuan / Jin, the linen percentage is 40%, the processing cost is 800 yuan / ton, the cost of folding cotton is over 19000, plus a certain profit margin, and the new year's storage price is 20400 yuan / ton, and the cotton price that cotton enterprises are willing to sell is expected to be 19800-20400 yuan / ton and above.

< /p >

< p > the bottom price of throwing cotton reserve is 18000 yuan / ton, then the price of spinning enterprises willing to purchase will be 18000-18500 yuan / ton, and the purchase and storage will be double track operation, which will limit the price to 18000-20400 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > above analysis, we can see that the sale of the National Reserve will result in a negative pressure on the domestic spot market due to the low price and a long continuous market, and the market supply will be more abundant. In addition, the demand for foreign cotton will go down sharply due to the no sale of import quotas, which will further promote the price of the outer cotton and outer yarns. The impact of the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx "ClassID=101112107108" > outer yarn "/a" will continue on the domestic market.

The domestic spot market is heavily pressurized.

However, due to the implementation of the purchase and storage this year, the supply of the new cotton market will be less than that of the futures market. This will support the formation of the cotton futures price this year. At the same time, the reserve price will also limit the downward trend of the domestic cotton prices. Therefore, this year's impact on the double track operation of the reserve purchase and storage is expected to be 18000-20400 yuan / ton this year.

< /p >