Financial Expert Zhao Qingming: The Influence Of The Increase Of The Name Currency Exchange Rate On The Citizens

2013/12/9 21:18:00 35

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Customs General Administration RMB Exchange Rate Trade Surplus Foreign Exchange Ministry Of Finance

The latest data issued by the China Customs General Administration (P) showed that China's import and export value was $370 billion 609 million in November, up 9.3% from the same period, with a trade surplus of $33 billion 800 million, a new high of nearly 5 years. 
 for this reason, Li Huiyong, a Macro Analyst of Shenyin and Wanguo, analyzed that in November, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the trade surplus < /a > was once again high. It did not rule out that "hot money" still flows into the territory through trade channels this month, especially considering the sharp increase of foreign exchange in October. 
Data released by the central bank recently revealed that at the end of 10, the central bank's foreign exchange balance amounted to 258043 billion yuan (the same below), an increase of 449 billion 500 million yuan compared with the 253548 billion yuan at the end of 9, which reached a new high in January 2008 and a 67% increase over the 268 billion 200 million yuan in September. 
 the flow of "hot money" seems to have attracted the attention of regulators. The State Administration of foreign exchange has issued a notice on improving the foreign exchange management of banks' trade financing business. With the increase of trade convenience, it has again launched measures to curb false trade financing without the background of real spanactions, and to combat false trade funds flowing into the territory through the way of trade, and prevent abnormal a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > cross-border capital flows. 
 it is noteworthy that since the beginning of this year, the a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > RMB < /a > has repeatedly hit the middle price of the US dollar, and has appreciated nearly 3%, far exceeding the annual increase of 1.03% last year. In response, analysts pointed out that many factors led to the appreciation of the renminbi this year, including the market's concern about the decline of China's economy. These factors attract continuous inflow of foreign capital, thereby boosting RMB appreciation and innovation. 
 for the future trend, Zhao Qingming believes that in terms of the middle price, it is impossible to enter the "5" era at the end of the year. After all, there are only a dozen trading days left. However, in view of the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, it is estimated that the RMB exchange rate will enter "5" next year as a big probability event. 
 Zhao Qingming further pointed out that the spot exchange rate of the Renminbi today is about 6.07, which is only more than 700 basis points away from the "5" era, and today there is an increase of about 100 basis points in a day. Therefore, the spot rate of RMB against the US dollar is likely to enter "5" at the end of the year. It is worth noting that spot exchange rate reflects market supply and demand compared with the middle price. 
 > a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > Ministry of Finance < /a > the latest issuance of 5 year treasury bonds coupon rate is 4.13%, the price is 99.69 yuan, and the annual yield is 4.28%. Treasury bond yield is the benchmark of the financing interest rate of a country's capital market. The actual financing cost of the enterprise needs to add a certain risk premium on this basis, and the risk premium is related to the credit and repayment ability of the enterprise. 
 in addition, in the case of RMB appreciation, the use of US dollar bond financing can generate a certain amount of exchange earnings, thereby reducing the financial costs of enterprises, Baosteel shares have already tasted the sweetness. In the third quarter of this year, Baosteel's financial expenses decreased by 290 million yuan, or 157.8%, mainly due to the appreciation of RMB 0.5% against the US dollar in the third quarter of 2013, reducing the financial cost by 300 million yuan.