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China'S Outlook On Foreign Trade Will Continue To Rise In 2014.

2013/12/10 20:57:00 112

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2014 Foreign Trade China Exports RMB Appreciation

in the survey, most of the enterprises that bullish for the first half of the year, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > export < /a >, expect the export growth to be moderate. Among them, 48% of the enterprises expect an increase of one to 20% over the same period, and 15% think that the export growth rate will not exceed 10%. At the same time, 43% of enterprises expected to decline in the first half of next year are expected to fall by more than 20%, of which several enterprises are expected to fall by more than 40%. This result is significantly lower than 52% in the previous survey, indicating that exporters' confidence is actually recovering. 
 from the industry perspective, hardware and auto parts enterprises are most optimistic. Nearly 75% of hardware and auto parts exporters expect to increase export revenue in the first half of next year, with only 8% expected to decline. Even so, optimism is still cautious. Of the hardware and auto parts enterprises that have increased exports, 44% expect an increase of one to 20%, close to the average of all industries. The home and gift industry is the most grim. 21%, the enterprises expect 2014 to decline in the first half of the year, and 13% is expected to remain unchanged. 
 RMB appreciation is the biggest obstacle to export. 
 the survey results show that the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp "RMB appreciation" /a "has replaced labor and manufacturing costs and has become the biggest obstacle to export growth in the first half of next year. Rising costs have been among the top three challenges in the first survey of global resources. 
This year, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 2% against the US dollar to the current level of 6.09, rising from the top 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. (P) The appreciation of the renminbi will damage the competitiveness of Chinese exporters, especially small and medium-sized exporters. 
It is the root of the problem that the RMB exchange rate follows the US dollar and fails to reflect the changes in the value of the other currencies. P For example, export enterprises based on emerging markets are deeply affected. Since the two quarter of this year, the currencies of emerging market countries have depreciated sharply against the US dollar, making Chinese products more expensive. In an interview with Nanhua morning post, Zhang Monan, deputy director of the World Economic Research Office of the Department of economic prediction of the state information center, said that under the current exchange rate system, the RMB has been moving with the US dollar, and can not reflect the change of the value of other major trading partners in the mainland. 
 the above progress has added weight to the RMB exchange rate reform in order to safeguard and maintain China's long-term export competitiveness. Yale University professor Morgan Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley, pointed out in the above article of South China Morning Post that the direction of reform should be "more flexible and ultimately convertibility of the RMB". (Stanley) Alicia, Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist of BBVA, believes that the internationalization of RMB will promote trade between China and emerging market countries. 
 before and after the enemy .
 to maintain the increasingly small profits and maintain the low cost of Chinese products in the international market, Chinese exporters continue to go upstream at the cost and price balanced steel wires. 
 manufacturing costs and workers' wage increases have been a common pain in the global resources export survey and survey enterprises. 63% the exporters considered that the rising cost is one of the biggest challenges at present. 
 from the industry perspective, the rise of cost is the most serious impact on labor-intensive industries such as clothing, textiles and fashion accessories enterprises. 
 over the past few years, Chinese workers' wages have continued to rise, and the minimum wage in coastal areas has reached the average level in Asia. China Labour Bulletin has estimated that Chinese workers' wages are still lower than those of Japan, Korea and Singapore, but have significantly outperformed Bangladesh, Vietnam and Kampuchea. This is why textile and fashion accessories manufacturers are most worried about competition from low-cost countries. The proportion of textile and fashion accessories enterprises that choose this option is as high as 37%, ranking the highest in the industry, almost two times the average of all industries. {page_break} 
 high cost and high export prices. 62% Chinese exporters say they are facing pressure from buyers to lower export prices and buy more goods with the same money. But easier said than done. In addition to rising costs and driving up prices, China is transforming from cheap production to high-end manufacturing. Author Lei Xiaoshan (Shaun Rein) once said that "importers purchasing in China will pay higher product prices." 
 this change is consistent with the survey results. According to the companies surveyed, production and product development in the first half of next year will continue to take the high-end line, from "pure" processing and assembly to re design and brand transformation. 
In the first half of next year, the importance of flexible pricing has dropped to fifth, less than two in the second half of this year. 
 expanding exports to emerging markets is still the first major means for exporters to promote export growth in the first half of next year. The EU and US market demand has improved, but the strength is relatively weak. 
Less than P, electronic products are most affected by sluggish demand in Europe and America. 44% electronic products and component exporters reveal that European and American orders are slow, with percentages higher than the average of 8 percentage points in all industries. 
 Europe and the United States continue to favor the market /p >
 the United States and the European Union are still the biggest export markets for Chinese made products. In fact, in October this year, China's exports to the United States and the European Union improved, exports to the United States increased by 8%, and the EU increased by 12%. Businessweek quoted UBS Securities China economist Wang Tao report as "the fastest growth in China's trade with the EU in two years". This survey confirms the situation. The proportion of exporters to the EU's main market is 28%, slightly higher than that of the United States by 27%. 
In the first half of next year, the focus will change. 1/3 of the enterprises will shift their focus to the US and the EU will fall to 1/4. P It has been four years since the recession began. The aura of "a href=" http://fz.sjfzxm.com/ "/a" has gradually faded away. The European Union recently lowered its forecast for euro zone economic growth in 2014 and raised the unemployment rate. 
 exports to the United States are also not smooth sailing. The survey of global resources in October on the impact of the US federal government's closure on China's exports showed that export enterprises had been affected before the October 17th incident was resolved temporarily. The survey also pointed out that although most exporters will further observe the changes before they take action to boost exports to the United States, some of the companies surveyed expect future exports to the United States to be affected. 
 South America and Central America are the key targets in emerging markets in the first half of next year. The Asia Pacific region is the main export market for the second half of 2013, and export figures for October show that exports to ASEAN (ASEAN) are far behind the beginning of the year. Gao Luyi, Louis Kuijs, chief economist of Scotland bank, said in a research report that "ASEAN countries are vigorously reducing the current account deficit and slowing economic growth." 
 export orders frequency shows exporters continue to expand export business. The new order will contribute 63% of the export earnings to the top 25% of the enterprises in the first half of next year, and 26% to 26% to 50% of the export revenue. 
 on the survey /p >
 the survey is based on the sample of provinces, industries and sizes, representing China's export manufacturing industry. Most of the 529 respondents were from China's four largest export provinces, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangsu, covering electronics, clothing and fashion accessories, household goods and hardware /DIY products. 
 from the scale of enterprises, nearly 60% of the exporters are medium-sized enterprises, with an annual export volume of between one million and five million dollars; about three become small enterprises with an annual export volume of less than one million dollars; the rest are large suppliers, with annual exports ranging from ten million to fifty million U. S. dollars.