Dongguan, Where Are You Going?

The current status of enterprises in Dongguan is not described in a single sentence. Just like Rome was not built in a day, the development of Dongguan over the past decade has brought about the current industrial situation, with many problems and few opportunities.

For the recent rumors that Dongguan has withdrawn thousands of factories, although the government denies it and gives people a sophistry impression, it is not practical enough.

I can feel the increasing scarcity of processing orders for personal contact with the processing industry, not only from the middle managers of some factories, but also from the first-line operators. The message is that Dongguan's economy is beginning to slump.

I do not want to analyze the Dongguan issue from the academic and theoretical level, because the central government is already doing it, including the large-scale central research team to Dongguan research. Even the famous economist Wu Jinglian came to Dongguan's shoe factory electronics factory to investigate. She believed that Wu could see the Dongguan issue in a global strategic perspective.

In fact, the problem of seeing Dongguan really needs to jump out of the earth. You can't simply take the Suzhou model and Shunde model to Dongguan. Dongguan's problems include the problems of the local (cost and so on) and the external environment (such as the weakness of consumption in Europe and America).

First, the reason why Dongguan's manufacturers will be withdrawn is superficial understanding of the increase in production costs, including the rental of factory premises, wages of workers, water and electricity prices, government policies, preferential policies for tax payment and other factors.

In fact, if it is such a problem, the government really doesn't have to worry too much. In fact, you worry about it, because so many years of market economy, does the government don't know that the market will automatically adjust the economy?

Although sometimes it is at the cost of great waste, this characteristic is the motive force of the free activity of capital economy. China has already suffered from the loss of the planned economy. If the government is too concerned about administrative interference, it is ridiculous.

In fact, China's current system can not fully adapt to the free development of the capital economy. China's administrative power is still limited. It is a patriarchal system to like to intervene, teach and influence.

The administration under these centralized systems is actually not conducive to creating a good internal environment.

Looking back at the Dongguan issue, it is the government's laissez faire (not doing or not knowing what to do), just like Iraq's oil, shovel can be dug to oil, Dongguan is building a factory to start, and years of free capital make enough money in Dongguan, or when the money here has not earned enough and fast enough, it has produced a kind of collective and provocative collective escape.

The capital market has always been cruel, and in the free economy environment, the pfer of industries has never been left without feeling. Dongguan should be more rational and less sensible in analyzing the problem of the withdrawal or bankruptcy of enterprises.

In fact, the competition between cities in China is also very cruel. Dongguan faces not only the more competitive competitors from other cities in the Pearl River Delta region, but also from the Yangtze River Delta, or even the precise location of Suzhou. In the past few years, Dongguan called Suzhou the pursuit of troops. Now it is estimated that it will not be called this way, because the economic strength of the long hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta Based on Shanghai is far ahead of that of Dongguan.

Even if Dongguan has some advantages, it is not necessary to exaggerate, but more importantly, to establish a sense of urgency.

I have been in contact with Taiwan businessmen for many years, and Taiwanese businessmen in Dongguan (Taiwan technicians and middle and top management personnel of Taiwan funded factories) have also positioned Shanghai as well as the Yangtze River Delta as a kind of Taiwanese in China, followed by Shenzhen. Dongguan is already a feeling of exile. Of course, this view is only Taiwanese's view, because their views will be one-sided from the perspective of management and technology, but from this perspective, we can also see the lack of soft environment in Dongguan.

The chief executives of Taiwan funded factories near the urban areas are mostly concentrated in the rich areas of Dongcheng District. In the past few years, they even collectively rent high grade communities such as Jin Yue Wan and the new century.

Taiwanese people like to gather together, including doing business. They also have their own relatively independent industrial chain, and have their own chambers of Commerce.

When we gathered together to speak Taiwanese, we even let outsiders feel a sense of exclusion.

This can only illustrate one problem: Taiwanese people regard themselves as outsiders and rarely have the idea of taking root.

A sensitive but understandable problem, the leisure industry of Dongguan's third industry, which is mainly the service sector, has become a great tool for attracting Taiwanese. This is indeed a bit of a joke. But this is the fact, but even though it is a fact, you can't even compete with Suzhou. Because there are Suzhou and Hangzhou under heaven, there is not much to say here. Because these rules and sensitive questions will be avoided by the government, but the people will understand it well.

The reason for the withdrawal of factories in Dongguan from the external environment can be attributed to the reduction of foreign orders, which is closely related to the trade war between countries. When trading war, foreign orders will be reduced. Some intensive and low technology manufacturers (such as shoemaking, clothing, woolen weaving, etc.) will turn to domestic sales, or cut staff, and stop half way to tide over the difficulties. This is also one of the reasons why the small ships with concentrated technology and low technology are turning around.

After so many years of trade war baptism, enterprises that can survive in Dongguan for more than five years already have certain ability to resist risks.

Such manufacturers are also one of the main manufacturers that the government wants to "drive away".

The government's idea of industrial upgrading and pformation is indeed naive. The problem of Dongguan is that it is not a cold day.

How many years has your government intervened in industrial governance in Dongguan?

If you want to intervene, you can not intervene. This is not a problem that government intervention can do. The main energy of local government departments should not be put too much on macro-control.

The industry in Dongguan is a self indulgent form, and this self indulgent form is more chaotic in form. But the construction of the industrial chain is much more perfect than that of your government. Like the NOKIA of Nancheng, how many small factories that make parts and components around it, such as Gao Yuan Bao Yuan shoe factory, and how many shoe factories are doing their outsourcing?

Dongguan's industrial chain can not be formed easily, and it is very simple to destroy it. I can tell the government very clearly that Dongguan has no idle factories and no weak factories. All of them can survive and have their own value. What your government should do now is to improve the internal environment, coordinate and manage the internal order, such as the supervision of manufacturers' funds. Dongguan has always had a false investment, and after fleeing the money, the government has to strengthen the supervision over the withdrawal of funds. At the same time, only by strengthening supervision and managing the employment environment (capital account supervision, coordination of labor disputes, etc.) can we really drive some bad enterprises out of Dongguan.

I still need to pay some attention to the labor disputes.

The problem of strikes in Dongguan is a common problem. This is also one of the reasons for the relocation of enterprises. It is like the boss likes to use new employees, because obedient management will not cause trouble.

But on this sensitive issue, the government's attitude should really be tough. If manufacturers are not willing to help the government to solve the labor dispute problem, then your manufacturers should go into it instead of dismissing workers. For a long time, the government has obviously put the cart before the horse and has no good employment environment. In the end, it is still the case that the factory can't afford to go away, but the employment environment is bad, and it will not be able to recruit workers.

The attitude of Dongguan's current government is still a sense of small farmers. There are two money on hand, and the spirit is so thick that I can't know how to use the money to learn Macao's public dividends.

It is still creating internal contradictions. The locals are divided into money, but the outsiders who mainly make wealth do not share them.

This is still a structural problem. The government knows that throwing money into the bottomless pit of medical education, which is clothe in the welfare garment, has no return. Teachers are giving more bonuses, and doctors are subsidized, that is, the ordinary people are not getting the benefits. Therefore, think directly or send money to the common people. From this perspective, we can understand the difficulties of the government.

I have no objection to the fact that Dongguan has the money to do infrastructure work. Officials are also making small kickbacks, which is beneficial to the economic development of Dongguan in general.

But good steel still needs to be used on the knife edge. The R & D of Dongguan is still very weak. The research and development of Taiwan plants are generally located in Taiwan. Dongguan is just a manufacturing base. You Dongguan needs other Taiwan funded factories to set up R & D in Dongguan, and it is estimated that Taiwan will not do so. In those days, the government of the Bian government wanted to build a dense industrial base in Taiwan, and recruited Malaysia and Philippines workers.

The current situation in Dongguan is the withdrawal of factories, and the government is anxious, so they want to intervene in a high-profile way and put forward the theory of industrial upgrading.

Now is the time to mention industrial upgrading?

But it has always been a typical feature of Chinese administration.

Nothing strange.

Now there are several roads before the government. First, we should continue to stabilize the form of intensive industries, optimize the internal environment, coordinate and manage the order of employment and the order of production.

On the basis of this advantage, it is strongly combined with domestic R & D institutions.

The second is the way the government wants to go, upgrading the local industry. But I guess this is very difficult. Do Taiwanese, including Japanese and Koreans, put the R & D base in Dongguan?

It's a bit unbelievable.

Therefore, the government has also realized that the Songshan Lake Industrial Park has been established, and the R & D institutions of overseas talents have been set up. The branches of Dongguan University of Technology and some universities have been released in the past. The taste of the university town is not so good. The experiment in Guangzhou and Zhuhai is not very ideal, not only the quality of teaching has dropped, but also the gold content of the diploma has declined.

So Dongguan wants to build its own research institute. At the moment, it is ambitious and wasteful.

This is not what you want to build. You can cultivate this atmosphere, but it is impossible to think about it.

The problem of Dongguan is not simple. There are big environmental problems, institutional constraints and bottlenecks.

The pformation of enterprises requires internal motivation and external conditions. But at present, Dongguan does not have these conditions, and is also subject to internal contradictions and external environment constraints. Therefore, Dongguan is not the best time to reform at present. If there are five years ahead, it is the basic condition for any excellent government to be prepared for danger in peace time. In the face of the best opportunity for reform, the government has missed it.

It is also not prudent to point out the inflection point on the issue of Dongguan. The problem of Dongguan is not a turning point but a recession. It is much better to look at the problem more seriously than to be paralyzed by some optimistic views. On this issue, Premier Wen Jiabao has already set an example and dares to admit that China is now the most difficult period. This is a pragmatic approach, and the style of those who have to face death and suffer from life must be completely abandoned.

The Japanese are rich and strong because they often have a sense of hardship.

The Dongguan government must first have a pragmatic attitude towards Dongguan's economic decline and try to cover up the current situation, which will paralyze and drag down the economic development of Dongguan.