Overcapacity Textile Industry Outlook Is Not Optimistic.

2013 domestic Spin The overall market price trend is weak. It is mainly divided into four stages: the first stage, the high level consolidation, and the start of the Spring Textile terminal, and the pull of demand, the price in February and February was at a high level. The second stage was a sharp decline. In March, PTA was mainly affected by the surge in imports of PX and cost collapse, resulting in a sharp fall in prices and a drop of 6.51% in the month, which directly dragged down the entire raw material market. The third stage of the rebound in April, with the downstream demand to raise and reduce the operating rate, the entire PTA industry chain has improved, so the textile market has also rebounded. The third stage downstairs began to enter textile demand in the off-season in July, and prices began to go down. The traditional textile peak season, which is expected to be "golden nine silver ten", is also unsatisfactory, making the whole textile raw material market showing a downturn trend.

Influencing factors:

Overcapacity: in the past 2012-2014 years, China's PTA industry has entered a new peak period of capacity expansion, and its capacity has increased rapidly. In 2012, 60% of the new capacity directly pushed the PTA industry into a loss situation. The PTA enterprise went to the inventory process slowed down, the loss was serious, the inventory aspect increased month by month, at the end of the year, PTA social inventory reached the highest point in the year. In 2013, PTA enterprises in China were in a state of deficit. At the beginning of the year, corporate profits (estimated at PX price) were once below -600 yuan / ton. Under the action of PTA Enterprises Limited production and insured price, and the low price of PX, the production profit of enterprises has improved. By mid 6, profits rose to near the cost line. After that, with the steady rise of PX prices, and PTA prices fell again due to sluggish demand, PTA production profits fell again and remained at -400 yuan / ton after that.

Policy led: Cotton in 2013 is still the "policy market", and the acquisition and sale of the 2013 national cotton store is again performed on the same stage.

By the State purchasing and storage policy 20400 yuan / ton unlimited storage support, and since mid January, the state began to auction the reserve cotton at the basic price of 19000 yuan / ton, making the overall price of cotton in the influence of purchasing and storing support and low price dumping, showing a slightly stronger trend in stability. In the two quarter, with the increasing reserves, the national cotton auction was dominant, plus the 3: 1 import cotton quota distribution, the overall circulation increased. domestic cotton Spot price fluctuates between 19200 yuan / ton and 19400 yuan / ton. In September, the cotton purchase and storage policy of our new year was officially opened. However, in the early days of storage and purchase, the transaction was not ideal, and it lasted until September 17th. In November, the impact of cotton prices being sold by cotton reserves began to recede. The increase of the sliding tax rate has played a certain role in boosting the domestic cotton market which has been weak in December. At present, the domestic cotton price is relatively stable and has a slight upward trend.

Weak demand: textile industry is facing a continuous downturn in external demand since the financial crisis, and it is also facing a sharp slowdown in domestic demand growth. The growth rate of textile production slowed down, and the growth rate of major categories of products generally declined. Slower growth in market demand is the main reason for the slowdown in textile production. The traditional textile consumption peak season has become a habit, and the low consumption boom is a common factor that restricts the rising market of raw materials.

Forecast for future market: overcapacity of chemical fiber at the bottom

The domestic PTA industry has turned to an absolute surplus capacity. This year, most PTA factories even failed to cut down production and reduce the new capacity, and failed to change the situation of PTA society's stock going up. Combined with the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, Asia will have 4 million 400 thousand tons of PX new capacity and 8 million 100 thousand tons of PTA new capacity to go into operation, and the upstream cost of PTA will gradually shift its focus.

PTA enterprises are likely to plan to limit production and insurance prices in 2014, and gradually boost the price of PTA. In 2014, the demand side of PTA in the spring and autumn two quarter of the traditional peak season or performance, but also to a certain extent, to promote the trend of PTA prices. It is expected that the chemical fiber industry will enter the bottom in 2014. {page_break}

Policy change: cotton market goes down

The increase of the sliding tax rate has played a certain role in the weak domestic cotton market. At present, domestic cotton prices are relatively stable, and there is a slight upward trend. However, due to the suspension of the temporary purchase and storage policy next year and the direct subsidy to cotton farmers, the domestic cotton prices which had been temporarily collected and stored as "policy underpinning" have lost much support in the past. Therefore, the industry is generally not optimistic about cotton prices next year.

Weak recovery and steady development

With the steady growth of domestic consumption and the accelerated recovery of external demand, Textile industry The demand environment for operation may be slightly changed. However, there are many disadvantages in China's textile industry at present. For example, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is still relatively large, and labor costs are rising too fast, and the market share of exports in the European Union, the United States and Japan has declined. On the whole, the textile industry will maintain a steady growth trend next year. At present, the fundamentals of promoting the domestic textile industry's substantial recovery are not yet formed, but the possibility of further deterioration is not large.