2013: US Department Of Agriculture December Cotton Outlook Report

< p > the latest US Department of agriculture forecast for 2013/14 shows that the end of the world cotton inventory is expected to grow for fourth consecutive years, reaching a record high.

2013/14 world end inventory is expected to be 96 million 400 thousand packs, an increase of 8% (or nearly 7 million 300 thousand packs) compared with 2012/13, which is two times the inventory level in 2009/10.

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< p > cotton inventories in the world have increased significantly compared with the previous years, because output exceeds demand.

Cotton prices are relatively high, resulting in increased cotton production, but also limits the growth of cotton mill usage.

The main reason for the global stock growth is China's policy support price. Because of the state's reserve cotton purchase, China has taken away a large number of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107108" > cotton supply < /a > on the market.

By the end of 2011/12, China's inventory was 31 million 100 thousand packs, or 42% of world stock.

In 2013/14, the latest forecast shows that China's inventory will reach 57 million 300 thousand packs, or 59% of the world's total stock.

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< p > < strong > Fig. 1 global cotton ending inventory < /strong > /p >

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< center > < img alt= "" src= "http://img1.efu.com.cn/upfile/news/commonly/2013/2013-12-17/7d7b08e8-388b-435b-beb7-b91caeef12f6.jpg" width= "1256" height= "686" / "< /center >

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< p > blue represents China; white represents India; red represents Brazil; orange represents other countries and regions of the world, < /p >

< p > < strong > the outlook of cotton situation in the United States is less than /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > December cotton yield in the United States decreased slightly < /strong > < /p >

< p > the US Department of agriculture's December report predicted that in the month of 2013, cotton production in the United States dropped to about 13 million 100 thousand bales, but this estimate decreased by nearly 25% compared with 2012.

The reduction in planting area and drought in the southwestern region for third consecutive years reduced production to the minimum output of 12 million 200 thousand packages in 2009.

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< p > December, the estimated area of harvest was not adjusted to 7 million 800 thousand acres, the smallest in 4 years.

In 2013, the national average yield was estimated at 806 pounds per harvest per mu, far below the record of 887 pounds recorded last year.

The output of upland cotton is estimated to be 12 million 400 thousand packs, 4 million 100 thousand less than that in 2012, while the output of extra long staple cotton (ELS) is estimated at 626000 packs, which is 20% lower than last year.

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< p > this year, due to the decrease of planting area, the land cotton in various areas of cotton planting belt is expected to decline.

The southeastern region may be the largest cotton producing area for three consecutive years. Due to drought in Southwest China, the harvest area has been reduced and output has decreased correspondingly.

In the southeastern region, cotton production in 2013 is estimated to be 4 million 500 thousand packs, 24% less than last year. The main reason for the decline in cotton production is the yield per unit area (825 pounds per harvest area), which is much lower than that of 1033 pounds per harvest in 2012.

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Below P > Southwest, the output of upland cotton is estimated at 4 million 300 thousand packs, which is 17% lower than that of 5 million 200 thousand packages in 2012.

The abandonment rate is similar to that of 41% last year, but the reduction in planting area and the yield per unit area (595 pounds per harvest per mu) in 2013 were the reason for the decrease in output, and the yield was 2 million less than that in the 10 years.

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< p > < strong > 2. The yield of Upland Cotton in the United States is less than /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > unit: million pack < /strong > /p >

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< center > < img alt= "" src= "http://img1.efu.com.cn/upfile/news/commonly/2013/2013-12-17/74699e36-6489-4a63-b60f-8f792d6b40fd.jpg" width= "1046" height= "665" / "< /center >

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< p > Delta production is expected to be only 2 million 800 thousand packs this year, because the planting area will be reduced to 1 million 200 thousand acres in 2013, and Delta production will be the second smallest production in thirty years.

However, the latest estimated yield per unit area is 1104 pounds per harvest. If realized, it will be the second consecutive record high in the region.

In the western region, the output of upland cotton is estimated to be 870000 packs, lower than the average output of 1 million 100 thousand packs last year and 5 years.

This year, the planting area of upland cotton has been reduced by only 286000 acres, compared with the average planting area of 359000 acres in 5 years.

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< p > < strong > American cotton demand and inventory expectations have not been adjusted < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > farm price narrowed < /strong > /p >

The demand for us cotton in P > 2013/14 is estimated at 14 million packs, the same as last month, but 15% less than that in 2012/13.

The amount of cotton mill in the United States (based on data collected by USDA farm service institution) is still estimated at 3 million 600 thousand packages, higher than last year's 3 million 500 thousand package estimate.

On the contrary, 2013/14 cotton exports were estimated to be only 10 million 400 thousand bales in the year.

The US supply is low, foreign a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx? ClassID=101112107105" > import demand < /a > decline, mainly because China imports are expected to decrease, and US cotton exports are expected to fall to the lowest level since 2000/01.

The United States accounts for only 27% of world trade, compared with an average of 5 in 5 years.

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< p > because the output is only slightly adjusted this month, the end of the US inventory is still expected to be 3 million bales, which is 900000 less than that at the beginning of the year.

Inventory level and estimated 21% inventory to consumption ratio will be the lowest in three years.

Based on the latest supply and demand outlook for 2013/14, the average price of farm land cotton is now 70-78 cents / pound, compared with the final price of 72.5 cents / pound in 2012/13.

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< p > < strong > international cotton situation outlook < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > 2013/14 the global cotton production is expected to decrease less than /strong > /p >

< p > 2013/14 world < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107107" > cotton yield < /a > is expected to be 116 million 800 thousand packs, 5% less than last year, because competitive crops are more profitable and the planting area of cotton is reduced.

The global cotton harvest area is estimated at 33 million hectares, which is 4% less than that in 2012/13.

Output in the US and China has decreased greatly, exceeding the increase in some countries due to the expected improvement in unit production.

The world cotton production per unit area is estimated at 770 kg / ha, which is similar to that of the previous 3 years.

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In P, the world's largest cotton producing country, cotton production in 2013/14 is expected to reach only 32 million packs, a decrease of 3 million packets (9%) over 2012/13, to a three-year minimum yield.

China's cotton planting area is about 5 million 100 thousand hectares this year, the lowest level since 2002/03.

The unit yield is estimated at 1380 kg / ha between the first two years.

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< p > India and Pakistan are expected to produce 29 million packs and 10 million packages respectively, up by 2% and 8% respectively from the previous year, and the average yield of two countries is expected to rise in 2013/14, but still lower than the world average yield per unit area.

This year, a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > India < /a > cotton planting area is expected to decrease, while Pakistan is not expected to increase or decrease.

Meanwhile, the output of Brazil cotton (sowing in December and January) is expected to increase by 23% to 7 million 400 thousand packs, as the area and per unit area yield are expected to increase.

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