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16 Mainstream Investment Research Institutes Have Reached A Consensus On The Bottom Of The Textile And Clothing Industry.

2014/1/22 14:42:00 60

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Research Institute Spinning And Weaving Industry Bull Stock

by the end of 2013, the textile and garment sector rose by 10.97%, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 13.7 percentage points. Among them, the brand clothing home textile sub sector rose 6.11%, and the textile manufacturing sub sector rose 18.70%. 
 from the perspective of individual stock returns, the theme concept is still the main force in the rise of the textile and garment sector throughout the year, such as the concept of Shenda share free trade zone, the home of Hai Lan's backdoor, keno technology, Jia Linjie's acquisition of hand travel and so on, and the slowdown or decline in performance is still the main factor behind the ten decline. From the point of view of key companies, Lu Tai A, Jia Linjie, hang min share, Kaiser shares, Semir apparel, 100 round pants industry and Wordsworth shares recorded more than 40% of the increase, while the men's plate of the seven wolves, the news birds and the card slave road and casual wear plate search in the year fell more than 30%. 
 2013, although the performance of brand clothing is still under pressure, the effect of going stock is ideal and the quality of assets is improved. Among them, the decline of casual wear has narrowed, and outdoor and home textiles have been upward trend since mid 2013. Men's wear, women's wear and leisure have a relatively good effect on stock taking, inventory turnover has upward trend, home textile inventory is also relatively stable, and women's and home textile accounts receivable and cash flow are relatively stable. 
 O2O is undoubtedly the biggest highlight of the textile and garment industry in 2013. It has a significant impact on the consumption of traditional textile and clothing, making the value of the original channel begin to decline, and the market becomes transparent. The O2O mode has two effects on brand enterprises, which are producing a large number of new brands. It is the source of future Bull Stock, and it has a major impact on the original cable brands, forcing the transformation of enterprises. 
 outlook 2014, the terminal consumption situation is still difficult to have obvious improvement, and the growth of garment home textile sector will continue to bear pressure. Against this background, it is difficult for the market to have a trend opportunity, but the fundamentals and market sentiment in 2014 will be better than that in 2013. In 2014, textile and apparel consumption enterprises faced a great change in the development mode. They could be described as the year of differentiation. Excellent enterprises have experienced a decline in 2013 and are expected to rebound steadily. Those who are not solid in texture, excessive development in the previous two years, and those who do not think about change may still continue to slide. 
 1 the textile industry fell to the bottom in 2013 /p >
"P > century Securities: the boom of the clothing industry has dropped to a low level." Galaxy Securities ": the growth rate of a hundred large retail enterprises has dropped significantly. 2, we hope that the cotton direct subsidy policy will alleviate the dilemma of Guoxin Securities: the high-tech industries with strong technological competitiveness will have stronger overall competitiveness. Dongguan Securities: some of the negative effects of the cotton purchase and storage policy are gradually showing up 
 century Securities: the boom of the garment industry has fallen to a low level 
 in recent years, the clothing industry has been affected by macro-economy. The overall trajectory is as follows: the volume and price rose before 2010; the price rise in 2011 dropped, the peak of the industry appeared; in 2012, volume and price were both under pressure, and the growth momentum of clothing consumption was confronted with bottlenecks; in 2013, the industry continued to be relatively weak, with a slight increase and a drop in price driven by the promotion. In the first three quarters of 2013, the total number of Listed Companies in the brand clothing industry achieved a total operating income of 75 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 6.82% over the same period last year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5 billion 940 million yuan, an increase of -6.34% over the same period last year. Among them, the brand women's wear plate was driven by Rand's shares, the growth of revenue and net profit reached 16.6% and 26.8%; the performance of casual wear and leather plate listed companies was larger, the overall income of the industry decreased slightly, but net profit dropped by 18.9% and 30.6%; the income and profits of men's wear plate after deducting YOUNGOR's land business showed an accelerated decline, indicating that the plate adjustment has not yet ended. 
 Galaxy Securities: the growth rate of a hundred large retail enterprises has dropped significantly less than /strong > /p >
 the total retail sales of social consumer goods, the total retail sales of Enterprises above Designated Size, and the growth rate of one hundred major large-scale retail enterprises in recent years showed that: (1) 2010 and 2011 were two years of gold, 2012 was the first year of growth decline, and 2013 growth rate was the next step on 2012 basis. (2) the growth rate of a hundred large retail enterprises is significantly higher than that of the total retail sales and the total retail sales of social consumer goods. (3) the growth rate of clothing exceeds the overall downward speed. In order to prove the distribution of electricity suppliers, we have summarized the development of e-commerce since 2009. In 2012, the size of China's clothing online shopping market reached 239 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 64.4% over the same period, the scale of clothing retail market was 16525 billion yuan, and the penetration rate of clothing online shopping was about 14.5% (4.4 percentage points higher than that in 2011, 11.7 percentage points higher than 2009). 
 2 hope cotton direct subsidy policy relieves the predicament 
 Guoxin Securities: the sub industry with high technology content has strong overall competitiveness 
 at present, the three major factors that affect the prosperity of textile manufacturing industry are: the progress of recovery in Europe and the United States affects the demand change of export; the change of cotton price determines the difference between inside and outside cotton prices, thereby affecting the gross profit margin of enterprises and the international competitiveness of the domestic textile manufacturing industry; and the rising cost of labor and other factors affects the profitability of enterprises. At present, the fundamentals of promoting the domestic textile industry's substantial recovery are not yet formed, but the possibility of further deterioration is not large. After many years of development, China's textile industry has a high degree of integrity and compatibility, especially for the sub sectors with high technology content and scale effect. After the adjustment of the cycle, the industry consolidation will accelerate. With the elimination of excess capacity, the acceleration of industrial upgrading and the gradual recovery of the global economy, leading enterprises with technological, scale or resource advantages will maintain or even enhance their competitive edge. In 2014, we must pay close attention to the change of cotton purchase and storage policy. 
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 < --EndFragment-- > Dongguan Securities: some negative effects of cotton purchase and storage policy gradually appear. /p >
 with the implementation of policies and the expansion of cotton reserves, some negative effects are beginning to appear. First of all, it does not limit the purchase and storage, which has consumed the huge manpower, material and financial resources of the country. Secondly, the purchase and storage price has split the domestic cotton price and the international cotton price, resulting in a serious disconnection between domestic cotton prices and the international cotton prices, and the high price of domestic and foreign cotton prices, pushing up the cost of raw materials for textile enterprises, and continuously reducing the competitiveness of export products. Therefore, the abolition of temporary cotton purchase and storage policy is the general trend. It has been confirmed that the 2014/2015 cotton season will no longer carry out the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy. The cotton direct subsidy policy may be implemented directly in the form of cash subsidies to farmers, but whether subsidies are made per mu or mass production, and the amount and manner of subsidies are still under discussion. After the direct subsidy of cotton, the price of cotton will gradually return to market, and the price should be adjusted by the supply and demand of the market instead of the interference of state administrative means. We can simply predict the trend of cotton prices after cotton direct subsidy, and domestic cotton prices may gradually decline in terms of end consumption, high inventory and direct subsidy. The import volume of cotton will be reduced under the influence of domestic cotton price drop, and the international cotton price will decrease accordingly. However, the domestic cotton price fall may be higher than that of the international cotton price, so generally speaking, the price difference between inside and outside will gradually shrink. 
 3 < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > O2O < /a > reshaping enterprise channel competition gene /p >
 Shenyin Wanguo: product sharing and communication form a tribal consumer group /p >
 at present, with the increase of flow cost, the cheap advantage of Amoy brand is weakened, and the traditional brand touches the net. From this year's "double eleven" situation, men's clothing, home textiles and other categories of traditional brand sales rank ahead. In the future, we believe that high priced brands will dominate the new channels with sub brand strategy, and vice brands should create differentiated new brand genes by brand differentiation strategy and brand new products, marketing and display strategies. Cheap brand O2O provides a solid data guarantee for the operation of traditional enterprises. It helps enterprises understand the massive data behind the electricity supplier and dig deep into the needs of users. In the long run, we believe that the generation of O2O will help to promote the transparency of the price of clothing products and enhance the efficiency of shopping. At the same time, we will promote consumers to share and communicate more conveniently and form tribal consumer groups. 
 Huatai Securities: electricity providers accelerate the brand operators' mode of reflection and reconstruction 
 B2C platform share improvement has become a trend, and the advantages of traditional brand development are highlighted. But at present, traditional brand marketing channels are mainly based on offline distribution, while online low price impulse directly impacts on offline channels. At the same time, this overdraft of the original brand is not a permanent solution. Whether it is active or passive, it is difficult for the brand line to continue to do large-scale business. We believe that the essence of channel conflict is caused by traditional operation mode. Under the traditional mode of operation, the multi-channel agency under the line, the price is high, the futures product development cycle is long, the supply chain reaction is slow, and the product sales rate is not high. The O2O mode of the traditional brand online and offline integration will be the mainstream choice in the future. The realization of O2O is the reconstruction process of brand management mode. Doing well can enhance the Valuation: first, there is a substantial contribution in the short term, and the pulling effect of the online revenue plus on-line will increase the brand share; the two is to return to the essence of the brand operation, forcing the brand operators to improve their operation, improve their product strength, terminal operation and adapt to the new market ability, thereby enhancing the valuation. 
 4 < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile and clothing > /a > class share price wins the market > /strong > /p >
 Oriental Securities: the realization of the brand sector is mostly from cross industry restructuring and merger 
 as of December 10, 2013, the total textile manufacturing sector rose by 17.39%, compared with the decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among them, the brand clothing sector rose by 6.04% overall, and overall slightly outperformed the market. However, from the perspective of key companies, the earnings table is still at an accelerated stage of deterioration. Most of the performance is lower than expected, while the leading indicators such as the quality of operation, the same store growth and ordering data have not improved significantly. The pessimism of the market has made the share price of listed companies have experienced a round of "Davies double kill". In the absence of fundamental fundamentals, the realisation of the brand clothing sector in 2013 was more driven by cross industry restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, private banks, e-commerce and O2O. 
 Ping An Securities: consumption has not improved but the market outlook is stronger. 
 as of December 2, 2013, the textile and garment sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, achieving an excess return of 9.2% and an absolute return of 3.9%. The second half of the year is obviously better than the first half, which is in line with the 2013 mid term strategic report's "performance downward and expected upward" judgement. Among them, the textile manufacturing sector due to external demand warming and domestic and foreign cotton price difference narrowed to achieve a positive excess earnings, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 17 percentage points, depressed by terminal consumption, brand clothing, home textile plate performance is worse than textile manufacturing, but because of the second half of the clothing brand to inventory effect is relatively ideal, the effect of reform measures will gradually appear, driven by the expected upward upward valuation, so that in the second half of 2013, the market performance is stronger than the first half, and won the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 4.3 percentage points. The forward-looking reaction of the market to some extent indicates that the fundamentals of the clothing brand have basically stabilized. And the basic good, accelerated transformation and other measures can also promote the valuation of clothing home textiles further rebound, driving the market performance in 2014 better than in 2013. 
 5 IPO the gate opening expands the plate income /p >
 great wisdom: Jordan and noble bird fill A blank sports dress blank /p >
 IPO finally landed, similar to the previous market expectations, the pilot of the preferred stock started at the same time, the short-term impact of hedging IPO restart. It is estimated that by January 2014, about 50 enterprises will be able to complete the procedures and go public. At present, the list of 83 IPO companies will include two clothing companies from Quanzhou, namely, the "bird of honor" and "Jordan sports", which means they are also expected to be listed in early 2014. Jordan sports and precious birds are the only two clothing companies in 83 companies. Their main fields are sports apparel. If the two companies are listed successfully, they will fill the blank of sports apparel market in the A share market. In the past, China's mainstream sports apparel companies chose to go public in Hongkong. Jordan sports and noble birds are mainly engaged in the three or four line sports apparel retail market in China, and are in the "second tier" of the domestic sports apparel industry. 
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 < --EndFragment-- > strong > Everbright Securities: complete the last mosaic of nine categories of brand clothing: /p >
 sportswear is the last jigsaw puzzle for the A brand apparel industry in China. The rebirth of IPO is expected to usher in two sports apparel companies, Jordan and A. The A shares will cover nine categories, including children's wear, outdoor, home textiles, women's wear, business casual, men's wear, casual wear, sportswear, footwear and so on. We believe that at this point, the core value of completing the last piece of puzzle is to help investors fully understand the inventory cycle of each subdivision industry and speed up the consensus of the "bottom of the industry" in 2013. The core market of "noble bird" and "Jordan" sports is in the three or four line cities, the former positioning sports leisure, the latter biased toward professional sports, and almost the same as other sports brands from savage growth to active adjustment process. By the end of January 2014, the business situation is expected to continue to improve, and the new stock subscription is the focus of attention. In 2011, the net income of the noble bird's business income and its shareholders belonging to the parent company were 2 billion 649 million yuan and 408 million yuan respectively, while the 2009~2011 year compound growth rate was 109.26% and 126.80% respectively. Jordan sports was founded on the basis of Fujian's Jordan in 2009 as a whole change mode. In 2010, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company were 2 billion 927 million yuan and 518 million yuan respectively, while the 2008~2010 year compound growth rate was 58.95% and 99.14% respectively. 
 6 deepen reform and stimulate the driving force of domestic demand 
 Guotai Junan: the household registration of floating population releases the consumption power of urban and rural residents /p >
 in recent years, the rate of urbanization in China has increased steadily, and rural incomes have increased faster than urban residents. China's urbanization rate reached 52% in 2012, reaching the world average level, but the household registration population urbanization rate is only about 35%. In 2012, the per capita gross income of rural areas was close to 11000 yuan, while the per capita income of migrant workers had reached 24500 yuan, slightly more than the per capita income of urban residents. But this part of the population has not enjoyed the same treatment as the household registration residents, especially the social security such as medical care for the elderly. We believe that with the further deepening of urbanization in China, the household registration problem of migrant workers will be solved, and the family members will also become a new labor force to enter the city. The release of these two parts of consumption will bring about the rapid growth of the garment industry. 
 heaven: "two child alone" policy, two or three line cities most benefit less than /strong > /p >
 analysis of the policy of "launching the implementation of one side is the only child couples can have two children" shows that the fertility rate in rural areas is high, and has little impact; the pressure of work and life pressure in the first tier cities is great, the trend of declining fertility rate is unlikely to be obvious; the two or three line city life is relatively relaxed and relaxed, so it is the biggest beneficiary area of the policy. At the same time, because the third baby boom (1983~1990) population is gradually getting married and becoming a child bearing age, the opening of the second child policy will gradually release the bonus from the incremental population. On the one hand, the increase in the number of pregnant women and newborns has increased the consumption demand associated with mother and infant, including maternity and baby clothing, infant formula, toys, early childhood education, etc. Therefore, the market of Semir Barbara children's clothing brand positioning in the middle end market, domestic fame and market share is the first, and is expected to benefit from the upgrading of the industry scale; on the other hand, the increase of family population will promote the demand for housing renewal and increase the demand for home textile products market, so the three home textile listed companies such as Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna and Meng Jie home textiles are expected to benefit from the increase in real estate demand. 
 7, the direction of recovery is right red indicator /p >
 livelihood Securities: sales, expenses and gross margins indicate the current investment direction /p >
 first, sales elasticity is the most important forward-looking indicator. There is a strong correlation between sales trend and stock price trend. Considering that the macro level of the current economic situation has not yet reached the turning point, considering the indicators such as ordering, opening, terminal construction and mergers and acquisitions will help to improve the accuracy of forecasting the sales of enterprises. At present, outdoor, high-end women's clothing, children's clothing three sub sectors are still in the "introduction period - growth period", industry growth is relatively high, the relevant companies are more likely to benefit. Secondly, the cost elasticity of period focuses on the elasticity of sales cost. Compared with historical data, it is found that the deterioration of sales cost rate and management fee rate of garment enterprises is mainly manifested in the fact that sales are lower than expected and cost is out of control, so the cost and sales elasticity must be linked together. The financial cost rate index is almost all good, indicating that enterprises in the economic downturn prefer to idle funds for financial management. In addition, the gross margin elasticity is most suitable for cotton spinning enterprises. At present, the end of the world and China's cotton stocks are at a high level, and production and marketing in 2014/2015 may be balanced. At the end of November last year, the policy of throwing cotton reserves and making direct subsidy was the fastest in March 2014, and the temporary purchase and storage policy may no longer be implemented. This will help narrow the gap between inside and outside cotton prices in real terms, but will bring pressure on related enterprises to inventory in the short term, which will affect the gross profit rate of a quarter, and then look at the elasticity of gross profit margin as the best policy. 
 Guo Jin Securities: the more successful consumer enterprises in the past, the greater the difficulty of transformation. /p >
 for manufacturing companies, the slow recovery of Western economies, coupled with the continuous upgrading of product quality, industry integration and upgrading, can, to a certain extent, eliminate the outflow of orders to Southeast Asia and other countries. Manufacturing enterprises will also strengthen cooperation with domestic brand enterprises in the future, and will grow along with the rise of strong brands. Although the growth rate of export and domestic sales is not comparable to that before 2008, the problem of leading enterprises' continuous growth of over 10% is not big. Consumer companies have always been less relevant to the industry. Since 2011, the extension of the past 20 years of extension has been over, and the development mode of marketing has been completed. With the advent of a comprehensive and meticulous business model, the focus of enterprise development will be shifted from the past channel construction and marketing to products. The transformation from channel and marketing to product is essentially a huge change in enterprise management. In the face of this transformation, the more successful enterprises in the past, the greater the difficulty of transformation. 
 8 is concerned about the new bright spot in the transition period of the industry 
 CITIC Securities: outdoors and < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > children's children's clothing industry < /a > is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth /p >
Retail sales growth in all sub sectors of the apparel industry slowed down in 2013 P, but the performance also differentiated. The growth rate of domestic and foreign sub sectors is slightly slower than that of the other sectors, but the overall growth rate is still more than 30%. Boys wear sales performance is better, the growth rate is basically the same. Women's wear, footwear and men's retail sales slowed down compared with the same period last year, with footwear and men's clothing falling considerably. Bed product boom is still low, terminal sales few growth. Looking forward to 2014, it is estimated that outdoor and infant children's clothing industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth. Home textile sub industry with terminal demand stabilized, industry growth is expected to pick up. The growth of leisure industry is steady, and the direction of local leisure leading transformation is clear. 
 Bohai Securities: the entity store will be divided into the virtual world in the future, /strong < .
 the Internet strategy has been shifted from the commercial real estate of the three or four tier cities to the electronic business platform by resistance to participation. The operation of some companies has basically passed the most difficult stage. In the future, companies that can adapt quickly to the times change have two characteristics: first, the burden is light, and the proportion of franchisees is relatively small. They do not go through a long period of inventory clearance, and their earnings and profits grow faster. Two, Internet competition has advantages, product substitutability is low, and it is less affected by online low-priced goods and overseas purchasing products. It can make extensive marketing by using O2O and B2C platform, and build and maintain core customer base with big data. The change of lifestyle of residents has changed the consumption pattern of clothing home textiles to a large extent. But we believe that brand power is still in existence, and the meaning of physical stores is still in the future. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the brand that can collate online and offline resources, because at present, most listed companies can not break the separatist regime due to the long-term development of physical stores, and they can not really make good use of online resources. On the other hand, it is difficult for customers to replace the online shopping and overseas purchasing by subdividing the market with higher requirements.