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How Will The Balance Of Treasure In Financial Industry Grow?

2014/1/25 14:25:00 139

the IMF market only has one surplus treasure, and the balance treasure should pry the bank's current 16 trillion yuan demand deposit 1/10 in the next year.

What will be p?

in fact, under the rapid expansion of the balance treasure, Alipay has been under heavy pressure.

strong > trillion is not a dream?

there is no doubt that in the process of China's interest rate marketization, the IMF, which has been sold in the form of Internet financial management, has become an important part of deposit pricing.

by the end of December 2013, the central bank counted 45 trillion yuan of personal savings deposits.

Of which more than 16 trillion yuan is demand deposits, which is the largest space for Internet financial management.

with the structure of the IMF market in 2013, the balance treasure accounted for 20% of the scale of nearly 900 billion yuan. The fund of the fund company, including China, Yi Fangda and huitianfu, was slightly flat or even negative growth, and the increment of direct selling channels made up for the shrinking of traditional channels.

a staff of a fund company has quietly chosen the balance treasure after downloading their own peer money fund APP.

At present, although all kinds of "treasure" are springing up like mushrooms, but the advantages of convenient operation, convenient payment and convenient cash withdrawal are the advantages of the balance treasure.

In terms of personal user financing, there is only a WeChat version of CAITONG in the future.

let other monetary fund managers envy, and in addition to "double 11", the balance treasure maintains almost daily net inflow of funds.

careful people also found that from the scale and user data of the disclosure of the balance treasure several times, its household holding amount continued to grow. At present, the average household holding of 250 billion yuan and 49 million households is 5100 yuan.

A recent report on CITIC Securities (quotation, inquiry) indicates that the total size of the IMF will reach a new level of 2 trillion and 200 billion in 2-3 years, roughly equivalent to 5% of current account deposits. P

simply from the perspective of demand, in the process of interest rate marketization, the balance of treasure's gold absorption law seems not to fail.

a regulatory personage forecast: under the current situation, the trillions of balance treasure is not a difficult problem.

The proportion of the balance treasure in the total funds of the IMF may continue to rise from 20%.

from the management of monetary fund? Is there any problem in managing the trillions of monetary fund?

Wang Dengfeng, the fund manager of Tianhong Zeng Li Bao, has worked for four years.

Tianhong Zeng Li Bao's 2013 quarterly report reveals the investment details of this big Mac Monetary Fund.

in its portfolio, bank account and settlement reserve account for 92.5%, and bond investment is only 6.7%.

That is, assets of more than 90% of the balance treasure invested in the bank's agreement deposits.

there is also a great difference between the fund and the vast majority of IMF: the average residual period of the end of the reporting period is only 51 days, and the average residual period is less than 30 days, accounting for 63.69%.

That is, more than one half of the bank deposit agreement for investment in the balance of treasure will not exceed one month.

compares several monetary funds, including the Chinese cash plus profit E (AI Ji, net value, information) and huitianfu Jinbao, which are also sold on the Internet side. The balance treasure is definitely the monetary fund with the shortest remaining time of the domestic monetary fund, and such a portfolio is unique in the Monetary Fund.

"IMF emphasizes liquidity management. The biggest advantage of balance treasure is net capital inflow and many retail investors. And the ability of big data analysis with the Internet can predict liquidity management, which also determines its abnormal portfolio."

The head of fixed income Department of a fund company said.

that is to say, the work done by the balance treasure is very simple, and the money will be kept to the short-term deposits of banks. The latter's current yield is 5-6%, which basically does not need to exert the initiative management ability.

especially when the "money shortage" in June and November, a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > balance treasure < /a > is also not bad money, and its yield can basically be synchronized with the interbank offered rate.

a monetary fund manager analysis shows that the deposit size of the interbank is roughly 10 trillion, which is the most important investment target of the electricity supplier currency. If the non banking institutions participate in 20% of them, the scale of the investment fund of the IMF can reach 2 trillion yuan, which can support the development of the Monetary Fund.

in his view, under the existing investment environment, there is almost no upper limit for the management of a single monetary fund. The remaining period of investment of the electronic money fund is usually within 90 days, and the investment deposit in each quarter will be changed once again, which means that there will be no obvious difference in the yield rate.

it is reported that < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > Celestica fund < /a > and Alipay also aim to target hundreds of millions of users.

It seems that the Big Mac path of balance treasure will continue.

but all these are preconditions.

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threat has come /p >

At the beginning of interest rate marketization, market interest rates have been maintained at a high level, which is the biggest premise guarantee for the survival of P.

In the United States, the process of interest rate liberalization lasted for 2-3 years.

However, if this process goes too fast, or does the balance treasure have no "moderation", what will happen?

the biggest advantage of the balance Bao's investment and operation is the net inflow of funds. Once the net inflow of funds is broken, its liquidity management and the problem of T+0 will be highlighted.

in the investment cycle of the IMF, the alternation of deposit and bond investment will occur from time to time. In the long run, the flat form of the yield curve is not sustainable, and the interest rate of short-term deposits will eventually decline.

After that, how to guarantee the yield of the balance treasure?

except for the agreement deposits, the central bank, the financial debt and the short fuse in the current 1 years are limited in liquidity, and also bear the risk of breach of contract, which can only support about 1 trillion of the size of the Monetary Fund.

in the eyes of the senior fixed income department head, think of a hundreds of billions of Monetary Fund to invest in the bond market. No one in the country or even any team is competent enough.

"P" to see the current balance treasure dependence of the agreement deposit, a large amount of money fund investment of the premise is "can be withdrawn in advance," the policy is in fact the CBRC and the CSRC "policy preferences" given to the monetary fund, not marketable.

This means that the IMF does not have to bear the interest rate risk of investment. Once interest is withdrawn, the interest rate loss will be borne by the bank.

"Once the net inflow of the balance treasure is broken, hundreds of billions of agreement deposits can be withdrawn without penalty in advance, which is a time bomb for banks. If the CBRC stops this policy discount, the whole game of Monetary Fund will not be played, and Yu Ebao will immediately fall down."

A fund company executive said.

from the point of view of investment operation, it is the decline in yield that has caused the net inflow of balance treasure to be broken, or the net inflow is broken, leading to management difficulties, and the yield rate has dropped. The two situations are possible.

Rationally, the continued net capital inflow of balance treasure can not be normal, and whether Celestica can set up a fixed income team that can play an active management capability and manage hundreds of billions of funds is an important foundation for its sustainable development.

Less than P, the rival of the balance treasure is no longer a small partner of the fund industry. Its biggest threat comes from the counterattack in the banking sector. In 2014, the biggest competition of the balance treasure will come from the awakening of T+0 in the channel of bank affiliation, or the above from the regulatory level.

a commercial bank personage analysis, the balance treasure is now 250 billion yuan, with its annualized 5-6% annual yield calculation, a year can create 15 billion yuan income, and the original 250 billion yuan in the bank's current deposit, the bank only needs to give 0.35% to 0.85% or so interest rate deposit interest rate, this is 500 million yuan or so.

Thus, the difference between the 14 billion 500 million yuan in the middle is bank loss.

if the 45 trillion yuan current account pays more than 3% interest rate, that is 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan.

This has slightly exceeded the overall revenue of commercial banks.

ICBC (market, interrogation), Construction Bank (quotes, interrogation), Ping An Bank (market, interrogation) have already prepared or launched their own T+0 monetary fund, against the balance of treasure.

worth noting is that the number of users of the balance treasure has reached 49 million, while the number of active accounts in Alipay is 1.5-2 billion.

A Alipay insider is slightly worried: the most active 1/3 has already bought the balance treasure, then, in Alipay's internal users, it also needs new "investor education" to reclaim the market.

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> a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > Alipay < /a > pressure /p >

in fact, the outside world has been able to see the pressure of Alipay running the Big Mac.

excluding the cost loss of the previously prepared proceeds, the cost that the balance treasure needs to bear is from the two parts of the advance and pfer.

There are rumors in the industry that Alipay has seen hundreds of millions of extra costs in the balance of treasure projects.

recently, Alipay launched the latest regulations. The scale of funds pferred from Alipay to Alipay is not more than 50 thousand per day, and no more than 200 thousand per month.

Speculation is that this is due to the constraints of the balance of treasure.

Monetary Fund usually requires T+2 days to redeem the account, but in order to facilitate the experience of Internet users, the balance treasure can realize real-time arrival and consumption.

An insider from Alipay said that the consumption of the balance treasure did not need to be funded. Taobao's 7 day design in the consumer's way could meet the demand of redemption time. However, the pfer of the balance treasure involves the issue of capital advances, including the pfer of Alipay and bank cards.

usually, the IMF T+0 needs to be funded by the fund company, but for the 250 billion balance treasure, it is obvious that Celestica fund has no such capability.

The cost of advancing funds will be borne by Alipay. Perhaps the Celestica foundation will make up for it with management fees.

industry insiders say that the average 10 billion yuan IMF may need 500 million yuan to prepare for capital investment, which means that Alipay may need to prepare tens of billions of dollars in liquidity for the balance treasure.

at the same time, any bank card to the pfer and pfer of balance treasure involves pfer fees, all of which are undertaken by Alipay.

The balance treasure is hosted by CITIC Bank (market, interrogation), and interbank pfers are conducted with other banks.

The general bank and the third party payment will negotiate the price, with a maximum of 2/1000.

The price discussed by Alipay and banks is unknown.

with the management fee of 250 billion yuan and 0.33%, the income earned by the balance Bao is 825 million yuan.

However, there are a lot of online offline marketing activities in each scale upgrade, and the cost has been calculated by hundreds of millions of dollars.

reporters learned that the two phase of the balance treasure called Ali's "Plan No. 9" has just been organized by the fund company to re submit the plan. The product is called "regular treasure" and is tentatively set up as an open platform product.

Alipay's requirement is grading, regular products are available, but the yield is higher than the balance of treasure, the most important feature is a closed period, the product may be on-line in March.

It is also reported that Ali has recently discussed with a large photovoltaic power station investment and operator, hoping that the assets of the PV power station will be securitized, and it is likely to dock with the regular treasure.

no matter how long it is, the rate of return on monetary and financial management of investment bank agreement deposits is bound to decline.

Ali pays more attention to the cash management function of the balance treasure to the existing individual users, while the regular treasure can meet the financial needs of the customers from the yield, and the regular operation will also greatly reduce the cost of Alipay.

some bank personages analysis, the balance treasure may also take advantage of Ali's big data analysis ability, has set up a multi fund dismantling platform, according to the specific situation and the market capital price to the commercial bank price which needs the capital, thus through the frequent paction increases the income, but the commercial bank can use this money to continue to match own non standard business; or the balance treasure two phase may invest the fund to the Ali small loan to earn the high interest differential income.

but a concern of the ICBC is that the balance treasure is robbing and squeezing the banks. This is the currency idling. The banks are not worried about you robbing my market. You are afraid that you will disturb the market order.

for fund companies, many fund companies have already abandoned competition with the Internet platform on individual monetary fund users and fought for cash management in small and micro enterprises.

At present, the balance is only for personal users, and the milk is 1 million yuan.

A large number of Taobao merchants have used the balance treasure.

Due to the central bank's anti money laundering policy, institutional user funds have not yet been electronically opened, and enterprises have problems with the management of the electronic bill management of the IMF. Many funds have begun to focus on the market segments that Alipay can not see, and develop more than 1 million level enterprise version "balance treasure" on the computer terminal.