The US Dollar Is In A Turmoil.

< p > Asian market morning, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > US dollar index < /a > narrowly concussion in 80.55-80.75 interval. The US dollar index rose 0.09% on the other day, closing at 80.69. The reason is that Yellen, the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve, testified before the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Tuesday that it will continue to implement the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. It does not imply that it will slow down the large-scale purchase of debt. This is a great benefit to the US dollar; and the proposal to raise the debt ceiling without any conditions after the US Senate finally voted by 55 votes to 43 votes also boosted the US dollar. The proposal extended the authority of the Treasury issuing treasury bonds to March 15th next year, and submitted to President Obama to sign it into effect, which means that the risk of this debt default that began in October 2013 has completely subsided. < /p >
< p > Royal Bank of Scotland has said that the global market has become more balanced, and it tends to see more US dollar against commodity currencies in the medium term. However, the direction of the recent market is not yet clear. Only if the US economy is strong enough to maintain sustainability, will the market have to believe that the possible tightening will come and the market can break the existing logic and the dollar can shake off the shock. < /p >
< p > the second hearing of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will be postponed indefinitely because of the snowstorm that will soon take place in Washington. This has led investors to shift their focus to Europe today. The prospect of Italy's prime minister, Lai Da, is directly influenced by investors' confidence in the euro area's prospects. Another European Central Bank official has spoken frankly about the possibility of implementing negative interest rate policy in the future. This means that the market has begun to look at the risks of further easing monetary policy in the future. These events may trigger a chain reaction thereafter, but considering that the euro's short term will still be supported by the trend, it will be hard to sustain or suppress the euro. < /p >
In addition to economic data, investors can pay close attention to the January CPI final value rate announced by Germany, as well as the retail sales situation in the United States and the number of people who want to be unemployed at the beginning of the week. P < /p >
< < p > today, Australia's unemployment statistics in January were significantly lower than expected, showing Australia's gloomy employment market. After the data was released, the Australian dollar immediately dropped nearly 500 points from 5.4565, and then hit 5.40. It is expected that it will fall below the 5.39 level within the day, which may mean that the rally of the Australian dollar has ended. < /p >
< p > the Australian Bureau of statistics released data showing that the employment market in Australia in 2014 was completely sluggish, the number of employment decreased, the unemployment rate increased, and the enthusiasm of the unemployed to find jobs decreased, which surprised the market. The unemployment rate rose to 6% in Australia after the 1 quarter rose, with an estimated value of 5.8%, from 5.8% to 5.9%. Australia's unemployment rate increased by 16 thousand and 600 to 728 thousand and 600 in January. < /p >
P UBS, the head of Japan's foreign exchange trading, has said that the reason why the Australian dollar can rise back to these levels is because investors are closing positions, but in the future, the RBA may still eventually reduce the Australian dollar's upward trend. < /p >
"P" and "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "," International Monetary Fund "/a official said in a recent interview that the Australian dollar exchange rate is too high, and the maximum depreciation rate is 10%. The Australian dollar against the US dollar should be at the bottom of the 0.80 interval. At the time of the interview, the Australian dollar was 0.89 against the US dollar, and IMF said the Australian dollar against the US dollar was 20% higher than its free floating level, and its real level was 5% to 10%. Such forecasts are affected by the uncertainty of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. < /p >
< p > the Asian market early today, the pound continued to rise on the previous trading day against the RMB, which has now been refreshed since the 1.25 high, almost close to a high of 10.078 in more than a year. At 18:30 in Beijing on the next day, the Bank of England released the quarterly inflation report in the UK, which showed that the Bank of England did not modify the threshold for hike in the unemployment rate as expected by some market participants. Instead, it raised the country's economic forecast in the report and implied that the UK could raise interest rates next year. < /p >
< p > the BOE said in the quarterly a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" inflation report < /a > that the unemployment rate will be reduced to 7% in the first quarter. After the unemployment rate falls to 7%, the interest rate will remain at a low level of 0.5%. The growth rate of UK GDP in 2014 will be raised from 2.8% to 3.4%, and the growth rate of UK GDP in 2015 will be raised from 2.3% to 2.7%, and GDP is expected to increase by 0.9% in the 1 quarter of 2014. < /p >
After the announcement of the P report, the pound rose sharply against the yuan, and further increased by 0.84% in all day trading. Holland international group said that the Bank of England appears to be the first central bank to raise interest rates even earlier than the New Zealand Federal Reserve, which means that the strength of the pound will continue after that. < /p >
< p > Morgan Stanley points out that the risk of raising interest rates before the first quarter of 2015 is on the rise. Inflation reports do not have much impact on the current market rate hike expectations, especially when inflation is at 2% of the central bank's target level. The risk of raising interest rates in the Bank of England before the first quarter of 2015 is rising. This inflation report can be interpreted as hawkish information. < /p >