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Analysis Of How To Deal With The Rise And Fall Of RMB

2014/1/19 19:32:00 39

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RMB Rising Or Falling And Coping Strategies

According to the latest data of China's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > trading center, the RMB exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 6.0930, which is 20 basis points higher than that of the previous trading day, and it has once again set a record of the P since then. 
 "the trend of rising this year is beyond our expectation." On the same day, Frich, general manager of Qingdao import and Export Co., Ltd., Li Ruiqun, had a heavy tone on the phone. Because the company did not think that the RMB exchange rate would be changed at the beginning of the year, there was no hedging in an order signed just now. "If the appreciation rate of RMB exceeds 2% in 3 months, we will do it in white." 
In the P interview, more and more foreign trade owners began to talk about the impact of RMB appreciation on the US dollar up to 34.8% since the reform. At the same time, the pressure of RMB's "internal derogatory" has also been mentioned frequently. 
How long will the trend of "P rise" or "rise or fall" will continue, and how can enterprises survive? Maybe we can see one or two from the evolution of import and export enterprises from 8 years to more than one year. 
 strong > external rise: profits of export enterprises are cut down. Importers benefit much less than /strong > /p >
 "the best time should be from 1995 to 2005, which can be described as golden ten years." Speaking of the survival environment of foreign trade enterprises, Zhang hung Hai, director of Qingdao Zhenxing garment processing Co., Ltd., who is engaged in garment export business, said so to reporters. 
In 1998 P, Zhang hung Hai worked for a state-owned enterprise in Qingdao. The main products of the company were cloakwear products. At that time, most garment processing enterprises in Qingdao were expanding their overseas markets. As a "recruits" who just entered the industry, Zhang Hun Hai soon saw the business opportunities brought about by foreign trade. "The exchange rate is stable, the market is large and the profits are high. The export volume of many enterprises can grow two or three times a year." 
After P 2004, Zhang Honghai, who accumulated a certain amount of customer resources, decided to go on his own and set up his own garment processing enterprise. However, he soon realized that he had neglected a key issue -- exchange rate. 
 "in 2005, the RMB exchange rate started to rise from 8.2765 to 8.11 in July 21st, rising by 2.1%." Zhang Honghai said that this means that the orders already signed by the enterprises have shrunk by 2.1% on the same day. 
In the next 3 years, Zhang Honghai fully felt the pressure brought by the appreciation of the RMB P. "By 2008, when the international financial crisis broke out, the RMB against the US dollar has gone from the" 8 "era to the" 6 "era, or nearly 20%. Sometimes a $1 million bill at the beginning of the year will deliver about 400000 yuan in exchange rate after six months' delivery. Zhang Honghai said, this allows the company's product profit margin to fall from about 40% to 20%. 
 Zhang Honghai admits that in the face of exchange rate fluctuations and the rapid reduction in orders after the international financial crisis, it once had the intention to withdraw from the industry. However, the steady performance of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar from 2008 to 2010 kept him firm. Two years of breathing also prepared his business to cope with the subsequent appreciation of the Renminbi (up from 2011 to about 12%). "Even so, our current profit margin has dropped to 15%, and net profit margins are even more single digits." 
Compared with P, Li Ruiqun, who soon entered the foreign trade industry, seemed inexperienced in dealing with the recent appreciation of the renminbi. "We mainly do the European and American markets, and the impression is relatively deep in early 2010. In the first 3 months, the RMB exchange rate rose to 10% against the euro. At that time, we lost a lot of lists." 
 of course, on the opposite side of the export enterprises which are constantly squeezed by the appreciation of RMB, the days of importers are better. Zhan Shu, chairman of Qingdao LAK Hing International Trade Co., Ltd., which is engaged in the import of raw materials such as copper materials, will tell reporters that the price of imported copper materials in 2006 is about 5800 US dollars / ton. According to the exchange rate of 1 to 8, it will be equivalent to 45 thousand yuan / ton. "If the amount is to be repaid for half a year, it will make 3000 yuan per ton on the exchange rate." 
At the same time, Zhan Shu will show that the import enterprises with relatively large volume of business will have some foreign currency liabilities, and RMB appreciation will also make them profitable. "For example, an enterprise has liabilities of 10 million US dollars, the exchange rate is 6.3, that is, it needs 63 million yuan to repay, the RMB appreciation is 3%, the exchange rate has changed to 6.11, and the corporate liabilities have also become 61 million 100 thousand yuan, which means that the enterprise only reduces the 1 million 900 thousand yuan liabilities by changing the exchange rate only." P 
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Less than P, but even so, Zhan Shu's company has not developed, but has been squeezed. This is because, in the context of "rising outside the renminbi", "internal derogatory" also increases the operating cost of enterprises. 
 "domestic inflation, rising prices, and the cost of enterprises is rising, of which labor cost is the fastest rising part." Zhan Shu will say, "5 years ago, my employees earned more than 1000 yuan a month, and now 3000 yuan can not attract people." 
 Huang Xinquan, general manager of Qingdao's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > International Trade < /a >, also engaged in the import business of pork products, told reporters that the labor cost alone increased by 30% last year. "The general labor cost accounts for 1/3 of the enterprise cost, which greatly increases the cost of the enterprise." 
 of course, for some export processing enterprises, the RMB "internal derogation" brings about the rising price of raw materials. Zhang Honghai said that because the state imposed cotton import quotas and restricted the import of large quantities of overseas cotton to the domestic cotton market, domestic textile enterprises mainly used domestic cotton, but the domestic cotton price per ton was four thousand or five thousand yuan higher than the international cotton price, which caused great pressure on the production cost of the export enterprises. 
 in fact, the price of orders is often at a low level because the reference price of export orders is priced at a lower international cotton price. And the domestic cotton production with high cost cotton constantly falling in price means that the larger the production volume, the more profits will be consumed. 
 "the pressure on export enterprises is greater, that is, the two sides are trapped by gas and cracks." Li Ruiqun said. 
 reply: transformation has become an inevitable hedging operation < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > hedging risk < /a > /strong > /p >
In the P interview, the trend of RMB rising or falling is still a topic of concern for many enterprises. 
Wu Min, a professor at the International Trade College of University of International Business and Economics, told reporters that the performance of the renminbi has a great relationship with China's economic structure. P On the one hand, China's high economic growth, long term trade surplus and large foreign capital inflow in recent years are promoting the increase of RMB to foreign currency. On the other hand, moderate inflation is also the cost of economic growth. In addition, the investment pull of China's economic growth occupies an important position, making the total amount of currency issue larger and thus causing "internal derogatory". 
 "considering the above factors will continue to exist in the next few years, and the situation of" rising or depreciated "will not change. Wu Min said that foreign trade enterprises need to adjust as soon as possible in order to cope with the subsequent changes, "for example, the RMB may soon enter the" 5 "era, for example, labor costs will continue to grow. 
 it is noteworthy that some enterprises have begun to make changes. "Now it seems that transformation is inevitable." Zhang Honghai said that he intends to open sales of products in the domestic market, and has introduced a number of high-end product lines. The director of Pingdu, a toy production and export enterprise, said that he intends to transfer part of his business to Canada, so as to reduce business costs and seek better business opportunities. "Some of the companies I know have moved production bases to Southeast Asian countries to avoid increasing labor costs." 
At the same time, most of the exporters who interviewed by reporters began to hedge against exchange rate risks with financial instruments. P "Generally, when the order is signed, the corresponding amount of hedging operation will be hedged." A business owner said. 
 however, this way has not become operational as the RMB exchange rate has been increasing. Zhang Jisheng, general manager of Qingdao Yijia Light Industrial Import and Export Co., Ltd. told reporters that even the professional institutions such as banks are not good at grasping the trend of the RMB exchange rate. If the enterprises do the wrong direction, they will lose.