What Stocks Should Be Invested In 2014?

In 2013, equity market Income and funds can be called two days. According to an authoritative website survey, 57.93% of the stock market investors are negative income, 11.03% of the profit and loss balance; a slight profit; the profit between 0 and 10% accounts for 13.79%; the yield is 8.97% between 20% and 30%, while only 8.28% investors earn more than 30%. In 2013, only about 20% of the shareholders made money, and most of them lost money.

From the perspective of fund performance, according to the open data, in 2013, 482 active managed equity funds had an annual average yield of 16.31%, of which 12 funds had annual returns of over 50%, while 46 had negative year-round results. In 2013, of the 336 general equity funds, 316 net growth rates surpassed the benchmark of fund performance over the same period, that is, excess returns were achieved, accounting for 94.05%.

What will be the difference between the stock market in 2014 and what are the biggest investment opportunities?

The author believes that there are three risks in the market in 2014, namely, private PE projects, real estate (market area) trust and local debt.

At present, the total scale of local debt exceeds 20 trillion, accounting for 40% of GDP, and needs to be vigilant. Moreover, its investment is mainly concentrated on infrastructure projects which have no returns or can not bring short-term profits. Many places need to issue new debts and old debts. Although the time of debt occurrence can be delayed, there are still hidden dangers.

Colored private PE projects will focus on the issue of repayment, three years ago, the price of non-ferrous metals (market area) was at a high level, many people began to invest, but prices continued to fall in recent two years, resulting in a lot of losses.

The more risky ones are real estate trusts and private trusts. 2014 may be the turning point of real estate. The real estate market will enter a high-risk period in the future. The two or three tier cities are facing the risk of falling house prices.

　　 housing price Stagflation has already appeared, and falling is a matter of time. China now has about 300 million residential units for 600 million to 900 million people. China's urbanization rate has reached 50%, 1 billion 300 million of the population, means half of the population has entered the city, real estate demand has no growth momentum. From the perspective of supply and demand, 10 million new houses are completed each year, the annual urbanization rate is increased by 1%, and the housing needs 6 million units. In addition to the rising price of the northern Guangzhou housing price, the supply quantity of other cities must exceed the demand.

At present, the role of real estate investment in stimulating the economy has been very limited, for example, the price of steel has been as low as that of 10 years ago, while iron ore has not dropped sharply, and the profits of steel (market area) have declined sharply, and stocks have fallen through net assets in large areas. The economic cycle of real estate has passed, and this situation will continue. In 2014, it can not invest in real estate, bank (market area), steel, building materials, cement, coal, coloured and other strong cyclical stocks.

At present, the economic growth in Europe is stagnant and the US economy is recovering. Because of the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the US policy of trade protection, China's export competitiveness is decreasing, so the pulling effect of exports is limited.

The stock market opportunities in 2014 are still in emerging industries, in small and medium sized boards (market share trading point) and gem (market share trading point). Although management hopes to release the new shares to crack down on the growth enterprise bubble, I believe that the gem will be fully foamed in 2014, and the gem index is expected to rise to 1664 points. The reason is very simple. First, the price earnings ratio of gem is generally 30-40 times. Compared with the two tier market, the issue price is not cheap, so the issue of new shares will not only hurt the gem, but will increase the overall valuation of the gem. Once the IPO is launched, the opening price will go directly to the 50 times price earnings ratio and improve the overall valuation. Second the rise of stock market is related to capital push. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice that insurance funds can invest in the stock market of listed companies on GEM. At present, the balance of insurance funds exceeds 7 trillion yuan, of which the actual investment proportion of stock and securities investment funds is around 10%, and trillions of scale funds are really good for gem.

Recently, the volume of GEM has gradually approached the Shanghai stock market, and the gem is still in puberty. Shanghai There are too many periodic enterprises to fall on the floor. It is hard to predict whether they can stand up.