RMB Spot Exchange Rate Fell Six Times, Hitting A 6 Month Low.

< p > February 25th, the spot exchange rate of US dollar against RMB continued to rise. As of 25 days, the spot exchange rate of US dollar to RMB was closed at 6.1240, and the inter-bank dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.1266.

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In the morning market, the US dollar opened up to the spot exchange rate of RMB. After hitting a high of 6.1250 yuan a year, it narrowed slightly. In the afternoon, the renminbi accelerated to depreciate, breaking through the high level in early trading, the highest since August 2013.

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< p > today, the US dollar reaches a maximum of 6.13 against the RMB exchange rate. Compared with the lowest price of 6.04 yuan in January 14th this year, the RMB depreciated by 1.49%.

If the user exchanges $10 thousand foreign exchange today, it will cost 900 yuan more than in January 14th.

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< p > < strong > China's central bank or intervention in the market < /strong > /p >

< p > trading personages said that buying foreign exchange by large banks was the main factor that led to the fall in the early intermediate price.

But he also believes that the possibility of a reversal of the RMB exchange rate and a trend of depreciation is relatively small. "If the market is expected to have a strong depreciation, the offshore market will react more strongly than the domestic market, but it is not yet seen."

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< p > < strong > Ding Zhijie: the RMB exchange rate basically reached the equilibrium level < /strong > < /p > because of the central bank's liquidity management.

< p > aiming at the six successive falls in the RMB exchange rate, Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance, University of International Business and Economics, told sina finance that at present, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate after the Spring Festival is quite different from other emerging market countries.

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< p > first of all, the currency depreciation and capital flight of emerging countries were not independent choices at the beginning of the year, but the result of active withdrawal of international financial capital.

The devaluation of our country is more the result of the central bank's initiative liquidity management.

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< p > since this year, liquidity in China's capital market has been relatively ample. The interest rate of interbank market funds has been kept low. At the same time, the central bank's fiscal deposits are pferring to commercial banks, which will flow into the real economy.

At the same time, China's trade surplus exceeded 200 billion yuan (US $31 billion 860 million) in January. Under the condition of ample liquidity, the central bank did not expect too much overseas capital inflow.

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< p > in addition, the exchange rate of the US dollar has basically reached equilibrium near 6, and the central bank is more inclined to relax management at this stage.

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< p > < strong > RMB < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > expectation > /a > or reverse > /strong > /p >

< p > with the continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the RMB spot rate has rarely been on the 30 week average since September 2012.

The sharp fall in the RMB exchange rate reminiscent of the collective depreciation of the new market countries at the beginning of the year.

Since the beginning of this year, many emerging economies have seen currency devaluation, and the RMB has remained the only way to become a new market country without currency devaluation.

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< p > industry insiders say that the growth rate of China's GDP in 2013 has been the lowest since 1999. This is closely related to the government's macroeconomic regulation and control. At present, the structural predicament left behind by the rapid economic growth of China is gradually emerging, such as the serious overcapacity of steel, the increase in government debt, the decline in economic growth, the substantial increase in labor costs, and the lack of core competitiveness in manufacturing industry, all of which will affect the growth rate of the economy and the trend of the RMB exchange rate.

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Henry McVey, director of the global macro and asset allocation team at P KKR, said: China must realize that it can no longer serve as a global low cost and low value-added producer.

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Wang Tao, China's chief economist at P UBS, wrote in a report: "we expect that the impact of RMB appreciation in the past year will appear this year to limit China's export recovery in 2014.

In view of this, the era of continued appreciation of the renminbi may be coming to an end.

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< p > < strong > Morgan Stanley three causes < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB devaluation < /a >: < /strong > /p >

< p > Morgan Stanley released the report that the devaluation of the RMB is mainly caused by three reasons: 1, China hopes to increase exchange rate fluctuations to reduce the related inflow of hot money.

2, China's use of the RMB exchange rate as a political tool, China is trying to pressure the United States by letting the currency depreciate, in order to affect the speed of the Fed's withdrawal from the QE plan.

3, China may think that the RMB exchange rate is too high for China's fundamentals.

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< p > < strong > Goldman Sachs: trust crisis and local debt will only temporarily suppress RMB < /strong > /p >

Goldman Sachs issued a research report on the declining trend in the recent offshore RMB market. Goldman Sachs believes that the renminbi may fall against the US dollar in the short term, but in the long term the renminbi will continue to rise.

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< p > the current exchange rate change is likely to be due to the expected peak of the liberalization of foreign exchange control in the overseas market this year. The central bank is worried about the rapid influx of hot money, so it has a more active intervention in the trend of RMB appreciation.

While China's economic operation has never been short of negative news, these messages will be of particular concern at this time.

Ghost city, local debt crisis, trust crisis and so on are all the perfect reasons for shorting China.

But Goldman insists that the renminbi will see much in the long run.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > Citigroup < /a >: RMB devaluation or preparation for enlarging exchange rate floating" /strong > /p >

P Citigroup analysts pointed out that the continuous depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the spot rate may reflect mainly the intention of the Central Bank of China to increase the two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate and prepare for the expansion of the floating range of the exchange rate.

It is reported that the Central Bank of China may extend the floating range from the current 1% to 2%.

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< p > China's current fundamentals still support the strong Renminbi; as long as the current account maintains a favorable balance, there will be pressure to appreciate in economic or international politics.

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