The Ministry Of Commerce Responded To The Sharp Drop In China's Export Growth In February.

The data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's export growth slowed by 18.1% over the same period last year, a record low of four years. In response, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, responded 11 nights ago that the export growth rate declined during the month. Seasonal factors The impact is expected to fluctuate. He also expressed confidence in achieving the expected growth target of around 7.5% for the whole year.

Data show that in February this year, China Export volume 114 billion 100 million US dollars, down 18.1% from the same period last year, the lowest growth rate since September 2009. In January this year, China's import and export growth achieved double digit growth in both two.

Shen Danyang said that due to the influence of the Spring Festival, China's foreign trade growth rate fluctuated in 1 and February over the years. At the beginning of last year, the abnormal growth of trade in some areas led to a higher base year, which was another reason for the sharp decline in export growth. In addition, some emerging economies are affected by factors such as the start of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from quantitative easing policy, and the short-term shrinkage of import demand may also be one of the reasons for the decline in China's export growth.

It is reported that before China foreign trade Similar situations have also been observed, such as the 2011 spring festival holiday on February 2nd -8, and the growth rate of exports in US dollars in January of that year increased by 37.6%, while the export growth in February dropped sharply to 2.3%.

During the two sessions this year, Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, said that China is confident that the target of 7.5% will be achieved in the growth rate of foreign trade this year. This goal is lower than last year's growth of 8%, which is the same as the expected growth rate of GDP in the whole year. Shen Danyang also said that the overall judgment of this year's foreign trade situation has not changed.

However, the sharp decline in exports in February this year also accompanied the rapid devaluation of the renminbi. Since February 18th, the RMB exchange rate has dropped sharply, which is contrary to the expectation that the RMB will "break six" this year.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications (3.64, 0.01, 0.28%) believes that this situation is due to the emergence of a large-scale trade deficit, which has changed the supply-demand relationship of RMB exchange rate in the short term, resulting in a phased devaluation of the renminbi. Two, it is possible that there will also be official homeopathy to weaken the RMB exchange rate, thereby breaking the expectation of unilateral appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. He also said that the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to easing the pressure of export enterprises.