RMB Spot Exchange Rate Has Fallen By 1.5% During The Year.

　　 Spot rate It has been reduced by 1.5% during the year.

In March 12th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.1343, falling for three days and the lowest in the new year. At the middle price, the yuan has depreciated by 0.61% since the beginning of this year.

On the day of the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the RMB's spot exchange rate against the US dollar went down for the fourth consecutive trading day. Data show that, on the 12 day, the RMB exchanged 66 basis points against the US dollar at a spot rate of 6.1468, narrowing all day, and closing at 6.1450, down 48 basis points or 0.08% from the previous day. In the last four trading days, the spot exchange rate of RMB has depreciated by 265 basis points, or 0.43%. Compared with the end of 2013, the spot exchange rate of RMB has depreciated by 1.50% this year.

It is worth mentioning that RMB In the near future, the RMB forward exchange rate in offshore markets has also declined significantly. Data show that, on the 12 overseas non deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market, the one-year US dollar / RMB NDF contract was delivered near 6.20, which is higher than 6.1895 in the 11 day, indicating that the overseas market's expectation of RMB depreciation has increased.

　　 depreciation Expectations have been enhanced.

After a brief rebound in the renminbi, the market weakened again, and the market was mostly attributed to the February trade deficit and the "hot money" outflow.

Haitong Securities said that the trade deficit of 23 billion US dollars in February, or the "outflow of hot money", was the real reason for the depreciation of the exchange rate in February. Under the background of falling interest rates and deficit, we can not rule out the weakening of the RMB exchange rate for a long time in the future. Guotai Junan also believes that the large scale inflow of "hot money" reflected in the high growth of foreign exchange and foreign exchange sales in January has already passed. It is estimated that the "hot money" has gone out in February and will face greater outflow pressure in March. Against this background, the RMB is facing the pressure of devaluation, and the stage depreciation is expected or gradually strengthened.

However, in view of the trend of RMB exchange rate throughout the year, institutions generally believe that the RMB will not continue to depreciate significantly. The report from the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank pointed out earlier that, considering that the unilateral appreciation of RMB is not conducive to stabilizing exports, the accumulation of greater depreciation pressure in the early part of the RMB and the high level of China's trade surplus with the United States and other factors, the recent depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not the beginning of the substantial depreciation of the RMB, but indicates that the RMB exchange rate will return to the two-way fluctuation. Compared with the past few years, the trend of RMB this year is expected to reproduce the trend in 2012, that is, the central price and the effective exchange rate have only increased slightly in the whole year.

In addition, in conjunction with this week's "one line, three meetings and one board", the Hongyuan securities and other agencies pointed out that while the central bank indicated that the RMB exchange rate did not "stand side by side", the monetary authorities would not withdraw from intervention or market. On the one hand, the future floating rate of RMB exchange rate and exchange rate elasticity will further expand; on the other hand, when the RMB exchange rate fluctuates too much, the monetary authorities will still intervene flexibly.